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When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World Kindle Edition

4.2 out of 5 stars 507 ratings

The study reported in this volume grew out of some theoretical work, one phase of which bore specifically on the behavior of individuals in social movements that made specific (and unfulfilled) prophecies. We had been forced to depend chiefly on historical records to judge the adequacy of our theoretical ideas until we by chance discovered the social movement that we report in this book. At the time we learned of it, the movement was in mid-career but the prophecy about which it was centered had not yet been disconfirmed. We were understandably eager to undertake a study that could test our theoretical ideas under natural conditions. That we were able to do this study was in great measure due to the support obtained through the Laboratory for Research in Social Relations of the University of Minnesota. This study is a project of the Laboratory and was carried out while we were all members of its staff. We should also like to acknowledge the help we received through a grant-in-aid from the Ford Foundation to one of the authors, a grant that made preliminary exploration of the field situation possible.
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Editorial Reviews

About the Author

Leon Festinger (1919 - 1989) was an American social psychologist, perhaps best known for cognitive dissonance and social comparison theory. His theories and research are credited with renouncing the previously dominant behaviorist view of social psychology by demonstrating the inadequacy of stimulus-response conditioning accounts of human behavior. Festinger is also credited with advancing the use of laboratory experimentation in social psychology, although he simultaneously stressed the importance of studying real-life situations, a principle he perhaps most famously practiced when personally infiltrating a doomsday cult. He is also known in social network theory for the proximity effect (or propinquity). Festinger was the fifth most cited psychologist of the 20th century. Henry W. Riecken Jr. (1917-2012) received his doctorate from Harvard University in 1950, having studied in the Department of Social Relations, which enjoyed a well-known relationship with the Department of Psychology. A thought leader, and a follower and booster of interesting thoughts (more prescience), Riecken was the first director of the National Science Foundation's (NSF's) Office of Social Sciences (later called a division) in 1959. As vice president and then president of the Social Science Research Council (SSRC) from 1966 to 1971, Hank led the development of the first state-of-the-art monograph on randomized controlled trials in the United States. Riecken was a member of the first Director's Advisory Committee at the National Institutes of Health. He became a member of the National Academy of Sciences' Board on Medicine in 1969 (one of two social scientists) and, as a founding member, assisted in the challenging effort to create the Institute of Medicine (IOM) in 1971. Stanley Schachter (1922 - 1997) was an American social psychologist, who is perhaps best known for his development of the two factor theory of emotion in 1962 along with Jerome E. Singer. In his theory he states that emotions have two ingredients: physiological arousal and a cognitive label. A person's experience of an emotion stems from the mental awareness of the body's physical arousal. Schachter also studied and published a large number of works on the subjects of obesity, group dynamics, birth order and smoking. Schachter was the seventh most cited psychologist of the 20th century.

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ B00MRTON0A
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Wilder Publications (June 10, 2015)
  • Publication date ‏ : ‎ June 10, 2015
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • File size ‏ : ‎ 1.8 MB
  • Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Screen Reader ‏ : ‎ Supported
  • Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Not Enabled
  • Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Print length ‏ : ‎ 181 pages
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.2 out of 5 stars 507 ratings

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4.2 out of 5 stars
507 global ratings

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Customers say

Customers find this book to be a classic in psychological research, offering insights into cognitive dissonance and human behavior. The book is well-written, with one customer noting it reads like a novel, and customers find it incredibly interesting.

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30 customers mention "Enlightened"30 positive0 negative

Customers find the book enlightening, describing it as a classic in psychological research that offers insights into cognitive dissonance and is the definitive study on human behavior.

"...From a theoretical and research perspective, it's a great field study designed to test Festinger's ideas about cognitive dissonance...." Read more

"...is influential in the field of social psychology, offering insights into cognitive dissonance, the psychology of belief, and how individuals and..." Read more

"...It stands as an important part of the professional literature, but the story would be better treated in summary format for modern readers...." Read more

"...Provides a fascinating insight into a small UFO cult as well as what happens when prophecies do not come to fruition - hence the tile of the book...." Read more

24 customers mention "Readability"19 positive5 negative

Customers find the book well-written and fun to read, with one customer noting it is presented in a very clear manner.

"...And the writing style is lucidly accessible and the detailed characterizations of the people involved and action unfolding are compelling enough for..." Read more

"...So I feel I can't really rate this - it's a classic in its field, it's incredibly interesting, but might also be seen as incredibly dodgy?" Read more

"While reading this wonderful classic for the first time, current examples of exactly the kind of cognitive dissonance introduced therein kept coming..." Read more

"This is a must read if you want to understand the directions and actions being taken in today's political arena...." Read more

6 customers mention "Interest"6 positive0 negative

Customers find the book incredibly interesting, with one mentioning that the action unfolding is compelling enough.

"...detailed characterizations of the people involved and action unfolding are compelling enough for even the casual reader...." Read more

"...I can't really rate this - it's a classic in its field, it's incredibly interesting, but might also be seen as incredibly dodgy?" Read more

"...In short, the book tells a fascinating, at times bizarre, at times hilarious, at times rather sad story, but at excessive length, and with too..." Read more

"Interesting, easy reading...." Read more

Top reviews from the United States

  • Reviewed in the United States on September 18, 2009
    When Prophecy Fails is as relevant today as it was decades ago when a little doomsday cult predicted a flood that never came. I'm a professor in a social scientific-minded communication department. It seems that no matter what class I teach, I'm always using this book as an example. From a theoretical and research perspective, it's a great field study designed to test Festinger's ideas about cognitive dissonance. It also stands as a rigorous and meticulous example of the method of data collection via participant-observation. Readers will also appreciate the beginning material chronicling known failed predictions throughout history.

    And the writing style is lucidly accessible and the detailed characterizations of the people involved and action unfolding are compelling enough for even the casual reader. I've always been a fan of Leon Festinger's work, but no matter one's personal givings about dissonance theory, it is tough not to appreciate the laborious efforts of this tireless and dedicated research team in producing this study. I admire those who are able to foresee real-world applications of their ideas in advance so as to be able to properly test them as the real-world events unfold. Festinger et al. were brilliant in this regard. A must-read for anyone interested in solid research methodologies and applied learning.
    57 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on September 17, 2017
    I picked this up because of a mention in a podcast, and found myself fascinated by the general premise. As anyone who's been hanging out in particular corners of media fandom know, there was quite a "prophecy" delivered by a "conspiracy" of people who claimed to read the "true signs" about the endgame between the two main characters of a certain popular BBC detective show. The fact that this did not come to pass on the foretold date has not made the "conspiracy" adherents disappear - indeed, some are more convinced than ever that their endgame is bound to happen.

    Reading this book shows that this is a pattern as old as time, and they present two case studies where the endgame was the end of the world or the second coming (with flying saucers, in one case). It makes for riveting, baffling reading - humans are <I>strange</I>, and anything to do with belief and religion doubly so. It explains - or at least exemplifies - cognitive dissonance at its finest.

    However, I also feel that it would be highly implausible that an ethics committee would approve the kind of study the authors engaged in back in 1953 today, and it's a bit unsettling reading about very private moments and crises of faith that members of this group had thinking themselves safe with their in-group, only to be riddled with observers bent on publishing everything they said. So I feel I can't really rate this - it's a classic in its field, it's incredibly interesting, but might also be seen as incredibly dodgy?
    21 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on March 26, 2025
    "When Prophecy Fails" is a seminal book by social psychologist Leon Festinger, co-authored with Henry Riecken and Stanley Schachter. The book chronicles the authors' research on a religious cult that believed the world would end in a catastrophic flood on a specific date, December 21, 1954. The group, led by a woman named Dorothy Martin (a pseudonym for Marian Keech), claimed to have received prophecies from extraterrestrial beings that a great flood would wipe out most of humanity, but they would be saved through their faith and actions.

    Festinger and his colleagues infiltrated the group to observe the dynamics of belief and group behavior when the prophecy failed to materialize. The central focus of the book is the psychological process of cognitive dissonance — the discomfort people experience when confronted with information that contradicts their beliefs or expectations. The group members' reaction to the failed prophecy served as a real-life laboratory for testing how people handle such dissonance.

    When the expected end of the world did not occur, the group faced a dilemma: how could they reconcile their firm belief in the prophecy with the undeniable failure of the event? Instead of abandoning their beliefs, many members of the cult became even more fervent in their convictions. They interpreted the failure as a test of faith or as evidence that their prayers and actions had delayed the catastrophe. Some members even believed that the failure of the prophecy was a sign of divine intervention, an opportunity for the believers to spread their message to others.

    The book describes how, rather than experiencing cognitive dissonance and abandoning the false prophecy, the group used various coping mechanisms to reduce the discomfort of conflicting information. The researchers concluded that people are often willing to engage in irrational behaviors and distortions of reality to protect their pre-existing beliefs. Festinger’s observations revealed how strong social and psychological forces, such as group cohesion, can prevent individuals from abandoning deeply held convictions, even in the face of contrary evidence.

    When Prophecy Fails is influential in the field of social psychology, offering insights into cognitive dissonance, the psychology of belief, and how individuals and groups cope with disconfirmation. It also highlights the power of commitment and social pressure in sustaining belief systems, even in the face of obvious failure. The book remains a key work in understanding human behavior in relation to belief, group dynamics, and rationality.

Top reviews from other countries

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  • Alberto Benhur Jr.
    5.0 out of 5 stars Fé cega
    Reviewed in Brazil on November 20, 2022
    Para se entender a fé cega a leitura é indispensável, especialmente na atualidade que vivemos.
    Report
  • Stephen Oberauer
    5.0 out of 5 stars An essential book, but a little long. It is what it is.
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 27, 2012
    It's difficult to rate this book, because it isn't like any other book I've ever read, and doesn't try to be. It is also a very important book, on one of my favourite subjects, "Cognitive Dissonance".

    The book is mainly one very long documentary on a small group of people who believed that the world was going to be flooded and that they would be rescued by UFO's.

    They make a number of prophecies that obviously never come true and the book explains in great detail and precision what happened to each member for every prophecy.

    It goes into so much detail that you can really understand why the people held onto their beliefs. Unfortunately I do consider it to be a bit more detail than I would have liked. It would have been great if the book was half the length that it is.

    At the end of the book it explains all the difficulties that the authors and observers had while trying to gather information without affecting the outcome. It also explains that they had sixty-five hours of tape recordings that they had to transcribe into almost a thousand pages, so luckily they have cut it down a lot.

    This book gives a great insight into how religious people think.

    If you're looking for more on understanding cults, Steve Hassan's Combatting Cult Mind Control: The Number 1 Best-selling Guide to Protection, Rescue and Recovery from Destructive Cults has been recommended by ex-Jehovah's Witnesses.

    Stephen Oberauer
    Author of The Mischievous Nerd's Guide to World Domination
  • LEGAD
    5.0 out of 5 stars Kitabın ebadı çok büyük
    Reviewed in Turkey on July 28, 2024
    Kitap cognitive dissonance konusunu çok iyi irdelemiş. Ancak kitap ebadı çok büyük.
  • Jennifer Burns
    5.0 out of 5 stars Exactly as pictured
    Reviewed in Australia on August 29, 2022
    Received this book - exactly as pictured and well wrapped, in super fast delivery time.
  • Vincent
    1.0 out of 5 stars format inadapté
    Reviewed in France on April 13, 2015
    le livre en francais coute plus d une centaine d euros d occasion contre 1 euro en anglais en kindle...j'ai donc fait le choix du kindle. probleme, a cause de toutes les proprietes intellectuelles, il n est pas possible de copier coller le texte pour le traduire en ligne. il n est pas agreable de lire un livre de psychologie aussi poussée dans une autre langue que sa langue maternelle. on ne peut pas non plus zoomer le texte et partager sur seulement 3 ecran definitifs. j en ai mis un sur mon telephone que j ai changé depuis, un sur mon ordinateur qui m a planté et dont les frais de reparation sont trop elevés donc je vais le jeter, il me reste mon ordinateur de remplacement qui est vieux de 10 ans. alors que mes autres e book, je peux les mettre sur disque dur externe ou usb....kindle, plus jamais, du coup je vais acheter la version livre à 197 euros. ne perdez pas 1 euro

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