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Essays in Persuasion
The essays in this volume show Keynes's attempts to influence the course of events by public persuasion over the period of 1919-40. In the light of subsequent history, Essays in Persuasion is a remarkably prophetic volume covering a wide range of issues in political economy. In articles on the Versailles Treaty. John Maynard Keynes foresaw all too clearly that excessive Allied demands for reparations and indemnities would lead to the economic collapse of Germany. In Keynes's essays on inflation and deflation, the reader can find ideas that were to become the foundations of his most renowned treatise, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936). With startling accuracy Keynes forecast the economic fluctuations that were to beset the economies of Europe and the United States and even proposed measures which, if heeded at the time, might have warded off an era of world-wide depression. His views on Soviet Russia, on the decline of laissez-faire, and the possibilities of economic growth are as relevant today as when Keynes originally set them forth.
383 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 1931
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About the author
John Maynard Keynes
351 books684 followersJohn Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes (CB, FBA), was an English economist particularly known for his influence in the theory and practice of modern macroeconomics.
Keynes married Russian ballerina Lydia Lopokova in 1925.
NB: Not to be confused with his father who also was an economist. See John Neville Keynes.
Keynes married Russian ballerina Lydia Lopokova in 1925.
NB: Not to be confused with his father who also was an economist. See John Neville Keynes.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 36 reviews
April 27, 2021
I'm far from being a Keynesian (or else I would have rated The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money above 2/5 stars...), but this is Keynes at his best. And when one of the most brilliant polemicists of the 20th century is at his best, you'd better sit back and enjoy the master-class.
This book, compiled in 1931 and consisting of articles, essays, excerpts and chapters going back to 1919, is essential reading for any one who pretends to have an idea of what Keynes meant and stood for. As Philip Cortney put it in his The Economic Munich, "this extraordinary man is a mixture of statesman and economist for whom monetary and economic doctrines must be political instruments of the art of governing men." I cannot think of a more accurate description for Keynes's approach to economic writing and rhetoric.
Granted, the General Theory is a labyrinth of fallacies, dirty polemics and conflicting definitions. But it was published in 1936, when Keynes was already one of the most widely acclaimed men of public affairs in the whole world. Essays in Persuasion is the real deal. This is where you feel the sting. Proceed with caution, for indeed the man is persuasive (and that might actually be a good, albeit counter-intuitive reason for starting with the General Theory: the present book is just too dangerous for innocent economists. At least the General Theory will leave you confused; this one might leave you in awe for "the Master").
Let me give you some nice quotes (in order as they appear in the book). Austrian economists are specially invited (you can find the whole book separated in chapters here):
"It is the method of modern statesmen to talk as much folly as the public demand and to practise no more of it than is compatible with what they have said, trusting that such folly in action as must wait on folly in word will soon disclose itself as such, and furnish an opportunity for slipping back into wisdom,—the Montessori system for the child, the Public. He who contradicts this child will soon give place to other tutors. Praise, therefore, the beauty of the flames he wishes to touch, the music of the breaking toy; even urge him forward; yet waiting with vigilant care, the wise and kindly saviour of Society, for the right moment to snatch him back, just singed and now attentive." (p. 46) [What a brilliant description of the modern democratic political procedures! The rest of this short chapter on "The Change of Opinion" (1921) is very much worth considering also]
(by the way, I skipped most of his factual discussions regarding the Versailles treaty, as well as some excerpts on monetary theory that were taken from A Tract on Monetary Reform. His famous "long-run we're all dead" catchphrase is not included in the present compilation, despite having originally appeared in the Tract - and not in the General Theory, as people are usually wont to think)
His 2 page chapter on "Inflation" (1919) is magnificent (even though, from what I understand, subsequent scholars have not been able to trace the quote therein attributed to Lenin).
"It follows, therefore, that a change in the value of money, that is to say in the level of prices, is important to Society only in so far as its incidence is unequal. Such changes have produced in the past, and are producing now, the vastest social consequences, because, as we all know, when the value of money changes, it does not change equally for all persons or for all purposes. A man's receipts and his outgoings are not all modified in one uniform proportion. Thus a change in prices and rewards, as measured in money, generally affects different classes unequally, transfers wealth from one to another, bestows affluence here and embarrassment there, and redistributes Fortune's favours so as to frustrate design and disappoint expectation." (p. 80, "Social Consequences of Changes in the Value of Money", 1923)
"How can I accept a doctrine which sets up as its bible, above and beyond criticism, an obsolete economic textbook which I know to be not only scientifically erroneous but without interest or application for the modern world? How can I adopt a creed which, preferring the mud to the fish, exalts the boorish proletariat above the bourgeois and the intelligentsia who, with whatever faults, are the quality in life and surely carry the seeds of all human advancement? Even if we need a religion, how can we find it in the turbid rubbish of the Red bookshops? It is hard for an educated, decent, intelligent son of Western Europe to find his ideals here, unless he has first suffered some strange and horrid process of conversion which has changed all his values." (p. 300, "A Short View of Russia", 1925)
"The Labour Party contains three elements. There are the Trade-Unionists, once the oppressed, now the tyrants, whose selfish and sectional pretensions need to be bravely opposed. There are the advocates of the methods of violence and sudden change, by an abuse of language called Communists, who are committed by their creed to produce evil that good may come, and, since they dare not concoct disaster openly, are forced to play with plot and subterfuge. There are the Socialists, who believe that the economic foundations of modern society are evil, yet might be good." (p. 341, "Liberalism and Labour", 1926)
Of course, as you may imagine, I do not agree with many things in this book. And some germ of what would come to be called "keynesianism" is indeed already present, together with its awful vices. Take a look at this naive macroeconomic view:
"But not all credit-creation means Inflation. Inflation only results when we endeavour, as we did in the war and afterwards, to expand our activities still further after everyone is already employed and our savings are being used up to the hilt." (p. 124, "A Programme of Expansion", 1929)
But in 1927 he had already correctly explained that "What matters is, not some abstraction called the general level of prices, but the relationships between the various price levels which measure the value of our money for different purposes. Prosperity, in so far as it is governed by monetary factors, depends on these various price levels being properly adjusted to one another." (p. 238)
Keynes is quite right when, on page 123, he complains that "We are using our savings to pay for unemployment instead of using them to equip the country." This is a view he insists upon many times throughout the book. When put this way, the Keynesian logic is bound to win the fight (as it surely does in Keynes's brilliant "The Economic Consequences of Mr. Churchill", 1925, warning against a foolish return to gold convertibility at the pre-war parity). But the problem is the distorted, hampered labor market which causes the unemployment and thus the need for the unemployment dole...
His discussion of tariffs and international trade and finance also showcases his statesmanship and his intention to above all safeguard the British economy and the British international position. He was a political strategist and from that perspective there is a lot of great insights that you can take from this book, as long as you try to put things in due context. "Context" indeed seems to be a very important word to deal with Keynes.
So, all that being said, do not doubt for a moment that I took lots of disagreeing notes while reading this book. But, as you can see in the title, these are "Essays in Persuasion", and the author surely manages to show his artistic capabilities in the craft of persuading, thus deserving 4 starts for his entertaining and thought-provoking, (sometimes nerve-wrecking) selection of polemics.
Much more could be said, as with all things Keynes-ian...
This book, compiled in 1931 and consisting of articles, essays, excerpts and chapters going back to 1919, is essential reading for any one who pretends to have an idea of what Keynes meant and stood for. As Philip Cortney put it in his The Economic Munich, "this extraordinary man is a mixture of statesman and economist for whom monetary and economic doctrines must be political instruments of the art of governing men." I cannot think of a more accurate description for Keynes's approach to economic writing and rhetoric.
Granted, the General Theory is a labyrinth of fallacies, dirty polemics and conflicting definitions. But it was published in 1936, when Keynes was already one of the most widely acclaimed men of public affairs in the whole world. Essays in Persuasion is the real deal. This is where you feel the sting. Proceed with caution, for indeed the man is persuasive (and that might actually be a good, albeit counter-intuitive reason for starting with the General Theory: the present book is just too dangerous for innocent economists. At least the General Theory will leave you confused; this one might leave you in awe for "the Master").
Let me give you some nice quotes (in order as they appear in the book). Austrian economists are specially invited (you can find the whole book separated in chapters here):
"It is the method of modern statesmen to talk as much folly as the public demand and to practise no more of it than is compatible with what they have said, trusting that such folly in action as must wait on folly in word will soon disclose itself as such, and furnish an opportunity for slipping back into wisdom,—the Montessori system for the child, the Public. He who contradicts this child will soon give place to other tutors. Praise, therefore, the beauty of the flames he wishes to touch, the music of the breaking toy; even urge him forward; yet waiting with vigilant care, the wise and kindly saviour of Society, for the right moment to snatch him back, just singed and now attentive." (p. 46) [What a brilliant description of the modern democratic political procedures! The rest of this short chapter on "The Change of Opinion" (1921) is very much worth considering also]
(by the way, I skipped most of his factual discussions regarding the Versailles treaty, as well as some excerpts on monetary theory that were taken from A Tract on Monetary Reform. His famous "long-run we're all dead" catchphrase is not included in the present compilation, despite having originally appeared in the Tract - and not in the General Theory, as people are usually wont to think)
His 2 page chapter on "Inflation" (1919) is magnificent (even though, from what I understand, subsequent scholars have not been able to trace the quote therein attributed to Lenin).
"It follows, therefore, that a change in the value of money, that is to say in the level of prices, is important to Society only in so far as its incidence is unequal. Such changes have produced in the past, and are producing now, the vastest social consequences, because, as we all know, when the value of money changes, it does not change equally for all persons or for all purposes. A man's receipts and his outgoings are not all modified in one uniform proportion. Thus a change in prices and rewards, as measured in money, generally affects different classes unequally, transfers wealth from one to another, bestows affluence here and embarrassment there, and redistributes Fortune's favours so as to frustrate design and disappoint expectation." (p. 80, "Social Consequences of Changes in the Value of Money", 1923)
"How can I accept a doctrine which sets up as its bible, above and beyond criticism, an obsolete economic textbook which I know to be not only scientifically erroneous but without interest or application for the modern world? How can I adopt a creed which, preferring the mud to the fish, exalts the boorish proletariat above the bourgeois and the intelligentsia who, with whatever faults, are the quality in life and surely carry the seeds of all human advancement? Even if we need a religion, how can we find it in the turbid rubbish of the Red bookshops? It is hard for an educated, decent, intelligent son of Western Europe to find his ideals here, unless he has first suffered some strange and horrid process of conversion which has changed all his values." (p. 300, "A Short View of Russia", 1925)
"The Labour Party contains three elements. There are the Trade-Unionists, once the oppressed, now the tyrants, whose selfish and sectional pretensions need to be bravely opposed. There are the advocates of the methods of violence and sudden change, by an abuse of language called Communists, who are committed by their creed to produce evil that good may come, and, since they dare not concoct disaster openly, are forced to play with plot and subterfuge. There are the Socialists, who believe that the economic foundations of modern society are evil, yet might be good." (p. 341, "Liberalism and Labour", 1926)
Of course, as you may imagine, I do not agree with many things in this book. And some germ of what would come to be called "keynesianism" is indeed already present, together with its awful vices. Take a look at this naive macroeconomic view:
"But not all credit-creation means Inflation. Inflation only results when we endeavour, as we did in the war and afterwards, to expand our activities still further after everyone is already employed and our savings are being used up to the hilt." (p. 124, "A Programme of Expansion", 1929)
But in 1927 he had already correctly explained that "What matters is, not some abstraction called the general level of prices, but the relationships between the various price levels which measure the value of our money for different purposes. Prosperity, in so far as it is governed by monetary factors, depends on these various price levels being properly adjusted to one another." (p. 238)
Keynes is quite right when, on page 123, he complains that "We are using our savings to pay for unemployment instead of using them to equip the country." This is a view he insists upon many times throughout the book. When put this way, the Keynesian logic is bound to win the fight (as it surely does in Keynes's brilliant "The Economic Consequences of Mr. Churchill", 1925, warning against a foolish return to gold convertibility at the pre-war parity). But the problem is the distorted, hampered labor market which causes the unemployment and thus the need for the unemployment dole...
His discussion of tariffs and international trade and finance also showcases his statesmanship and his intention to above all safeguard the British economy and the British international position. He was a political strategist and from that perspective there is a lot of great insights that you can take from this book, as long as you try to put things in due context. "Context" indeed seems to be a very important word to deal with Keynes.
So, all that being said, do not doubt for a moment that I took lots of disagreeing notes while reading this book. But, as you can see in the title, these are "Essays in Persuasion", and the author surely manages to show his artistic capabilities in the craft of persuading, thus deserving 4 starts for his entertaining and thought-provoking, (sometimes nerve-wrecking) selection of polemics.
Much more could be said, as with all things Keynes-ian...
April 2, 2022
"During the war it was useful to refrain from from any avoidable expenditure because this would release resources for the insatiable demands of military operations. What are we releasing resources for today? To stand on street corners and draw the dole." (281)
This book is split into four sections. The first section The Treaty of Peace deals with the reparations imposed on Germany following WW1. Here Keynes argues that the debts imposed on them are injurious, and that the seeking of revenge will inevitably lead to war and worsening international tensions. Keynes unfortunately was proved right on this. Instead of imposing crushing sanctions, Keynes argues for peace talks and a less aggressive treatment of Germany. "Ruining Germany to enrich ourselves will only lead to chaos" is the main message.
The second part, Inflation and Deflation explores Keynes' take on (you guessed it) inflation and deflation. For Keynes inflation was preferable to deflation, as the former meant risking unemployment, something Keynes thought politically much more dangerous. However, inflation destroys the savings of people and is injurious to creditors.
The third part The Return to the Gold Standard explores Keynes' attacks on gold and his joy at the reversal of Churchill's policy to get us back on gold. Gold restricts government policy and forces wages to be in line with gold, which worked for the 18th century, where gold mining was steadily increasing with industry, but it has run its course argues Keynes. Also, relying on gold constrains policy to respond to the Federal Reserve, argues Keynes.
The fourth section Politics explores Keynes' dismissal and disgust at Russian communism, his dismay at the Conservative Party's policies, his ambivalent relationship with liberalism, and his support for an interventionist over a laissez faire economy.
Finally, the last section The Future, features two essays where Keynes looks optimistic towards Britain's ability to raise the productive forces and create an earthly utopia.
The essays are uneven, and some are much more engaging and relevant than others. Since Britain has had an on/off relationship to both Keynes and his ideas, some of the debates have lost their vigour. We aren't on gold, nor are America, so the spirit of the argument doesn't feel as fresh. However, Keynes essays on Germany take on a horrifying prescience when looking back after WW2...
This book is split into four sections. The first section The Treaty of Peace deals with the reparations imposed on Germany following WW1. Here Keynes argues that the debts imposed on them are injurious, and that the seeking of revenge will inevitably lead to war and worsening international tensions. Keynes unfortunately was proved right on this. Instead of imposing crushing sanctions, Keynes argues for peace talks and a less aggressive treatment of Germany. "Ruining Germany to enrich ourselves will only lead to chaos" is the main message.
The second part, Inflation and Deflation explores Keynes' take on (you guessed it) inflation and deflation. For Keynes inflation was preferable to deflation, as the former meant risking unemployment, something Keynes thought politically much more dangerous. However, inflation destroys the savings of people and is injurious to creditors.
The third part The Return to the Gold Standard explores Keynes' attacks on gold and his joy at the reversal of Churchill's policy to get us back on gold. Gold restricts government policy and forces wages to be in line with gold, which worked for the 18th century, where gold mining was steadily increasing with industry, but it has run its course argues Keynes. Also, relying on gold constrains policy to respond to the Federal Reserve, argues Keynes.
The fourth section Politics explores Keynes' dismissal and disgust at Russian communism, his dismay at the Conservative Party's policies, his ambivalent relationship with liberalism, and his support for an interventionist over a laissez faire economy.
Finally, the last section The Future, features two essays where Keynes looks optimistic towards Britain's ability to raise the productive forces and create an earthly utopia.
The essays are uneven, and some are much more engaging and relevant than others. Since Britain has had an on/off relationship to both Keynes and his ideas, some of the debates have lost their vigour. We aren't on gold, nor are America, so the spirit of the argument doesn't feel as fresh. However, Keynes essays on Germany take on a horrifying prescience when looking back after WW2...
November 16, 2023
Why did I read this
June 16, 2013
I read this book because it contains the essay "Economic possibilities for our grandchildren", written in 1930. Keynes predicts on that essay that within 100 years time mankind would solve its economic problem thanks to the increases on productivity, and would be able to cover the absolute needs leaving much more time for leisure.
The author distinguishes between absolute needs and relative needs. The needs of food, water or shelter, are absolute on the sense that we feel them whatever the situation of other human beings may be. Other needs satisfy the desire for superiority, and Keynes thinks that those may be insatiable, but he arrives to the conclusion that once the absolute needs are covered, we will prefer to devote our energies to non-economic purposes.
This is where his prediction, at least until now, has failed. The consumerist society where we live has convinced us that a second car, a bigger house or a flat TV will give us more satisfaction than more leisure time. I only hope that this will change before 2030 and the prediction becomes true in due time.
The other essays are also extremely interesting, visionary for the time and even applicable today.
In his 1919 essay "Proposals for the reconstruction of Europe" he says, literally, "A Free Trade union should be established under the auspices of the League of Nations of countries undertaking to impose no protectionist tariffs whatever against the produce of other members of the Union". He was proposing this union for the countries of central and southern Europe, and he hoped that the UK would also become an original member.
Some lines after, he writes: "By fixing he Reparation payments well within Germany's capacity to pay, we make possible the renewal of hope and enterprise within her territory"
When you see, in 20 lines of a 1919 essay, an early proposal of the European Union and a measure that could have avoided WWII, you get convinced that Keynes was a visionary genius.
Other interesting essays are the series about the return to the gold standard and its effects. UK returned to the gold standard in the 1920s, and this produced an increase on the value of the pound. UK exports became less competitive and the trade balance suffered. Keynes never agreed with the return to the gold standard, or with the policy of the government to restrict credit. He argued that the credit restriction would lead to a vicious circle where the investment would decrease, unemployment grow and wages would be lowered, affecting internal consumption. The benefits on the trade balance would be minimal compared with the disadvantages of a growing unemployed population.
It seems to me that the similarities between the situation in Keynes' time and today, and the accuracy of his forecasts, should make us look more into the recipes that he proposed almost 100 years ago and have proved successful since then.
The author distinguishes between absolute needs and relative needs. The needs of food, water or shelter, are absolute on the sense that we feel them whatever the situation of other human beings may be. Other needs satisfy the desire for superiority, and Keynes thinks that those may be insatiable, but he arrives to the conclusion that once the absolute needs are covered, we will prefer to devote our energies to non-economic purposes.
This is where his prediction, at least until now, has failed. The consumerist society where we live has convinced us that a second car, a bigger house or a flat TV will give us more satisfaction than more leisure time. I only hope that this will change before 2030 and the prediction becomes true in due time.
The other essays are also extremely interesting, visionary for the time and even applicable today.
In his 1919 essay "Proposals for the reconstruction of Europe" he says, literally, "A Free Trade union should be established under the auspices of the League of Nations of countries undertaking to impose no protectionist tariffs whatever against the produce of other members of the Union". He was proposing this union for the countries of central and southern Europe, and he hoped that the UK would also become an original member.
Some lines after, he writes: "By fixing he Reparation payments well within Germany's capacity to pay, we make possible the renewal of hope and enterprise within her territory"
When you see, in 20 lines of a 1919 essay, an early proposal of the European Union and a measure that could have avoided WWII, you get convinced that Keynes was a visionary genius.
Other interesting essays are the series about the return to the gold standard and its effects. UK returned to the gold standard in the 1920s, and this produced an increase on the value of the pound. UK exports became less competitive and the trade balance suffered. Keynes never agreed with the return to the gold standard, or with the policy of the government to restrict credit. He argued that the credit restriction would lead to a vicious circle where the investment would decrease, unemployment grow and wages would be lowered, affecting internal consumption. The benefits on the trade balance would be minimal compared with the disadvantages of a growing unemployed population.
It seems to me that the similarities between the situation in Keynes' time and today, and the accuracy of his forecasts, should make us look more into the recipes that he proposed almost 100 years ago and have proved successful since then.
April 15, 2014
Although this book was written between the World Wars, it is very much a book of our time. It has insight into where we are currently, what we ought to be doing now, and where we could well go next. There are three aspects of the book that are worth noting:
1. In the 1920s, the great currency question was German reparations. This is very similar to our current pattern of sovereign indebtedness. In both cases, the currency question - which is, essentially, a monetary question - led to an asset bubble.
2. In 1929 and 2007, those asset bubbles burst. The contagion flowed from the monetary economy into the real economy with recession being the result. In the 1930s, governments responded by austere means. That mistake has been repeated, particularly in the Eurozone. Fiscal contraction has simply worsened the recession rather than encouraging a return to growth.
3. The path to recovery will be paved by fiscal expansion. This happened in the US in the 1930s, and is starting to happen in the US and UK now. Europe seems to be mired in a recessionary induced deflation, and one wonders how their debt will ever be repaid. This takes us back to the question of reparations.
Keynes writing is a joy to read. Some of the concepts he discusses are quite abstract, but he manages to put over the point with great clarity. Today, he would be seen as a great communicator. In my opinion, this book has as much relevance today as it had when it was written. Perhaps that is why we are seeing a revival of Keynes?
1. In the 1920s, the great currency question was German reparations. This is very similar to our current pattern of sovereign indebtedness. In both cases, the currency question - which is, essentially, a monetary question - led to an asset bubble.
2. In 1929 and 2007, those asset bubbles burst. The contagion flowed from the monetary economy into the real economy with recession being the result. In the 1930s, governments responded by austere means. That mistake has been repeated, particularly in the Eurozone. Fiscal contraction has simply worsened the recession rather than encouraging a return to growth.
3. The path to recovery will be paved by fiscal expansion. This happened in the US in the 1930s, and is starting to happen in the US and UK now. Europe seems to be mired in a recessionary induced deflation, and one wonders how their debt will ever be repaid. This takes us back to the question of reparations.
Keynes writing is a joy to read. Some of the concepts he discusses are quite abstract, but he manages to put over the point with great clarity. Today, he would be seen as a great communicator. In my opinion, this book has as much relevance today as it had when it was written. Perhaps that is why we are seeing a revival of Keynes?
December 22, 2019
How important is Keynes for the today's economy. My favorite economist, and one of the most important ones.
October 27, 2024
Economic decisions have profound human consequences. What role should the state play in the economy?
Notes:
- the issues Keynes wrestled with—economic inequality, the balance between state intervention and free markets, international cooperation—are just as relevant today
- Consider the recent sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. These measures aim to deter aggression, but they also risk pushing Russia into economic isolation and potentially greater hostility.
- When you see images of protest or unrest in countries facing economic hardship, you're seeing the human cost of economic decisions.
- investing in economic justice pays dividends for everyone, and not just the few
- He argued that governments should take an active role in managing inflation and deflation. This was a radical departure from the norm. Keynes' proposal for counter-cyclical spending. The idea that a government should spend more during economic downturns to stimulate the economy was revolutionary.
- The notion that a central bank could and should manage the money supply to influence inflation was a radical departure from the previous gold standard. Keynes' work on inflation and deflation laid the groundwork for modern monetary policy. When you hear about quantitative easing or fiscal stimulus today, you're witnessing the long-term impact of Keynes' innovative thinking.
- He argued that unregulated markets could lead to inefficiency, inequality and instability. Keynes wasn't calling for full-blown socialism. Instead, he envisioned a middle ground, a managed capitalism where the government would step in to correct market failures and promote the greater good. He argued that the state should take on tasks that are beyond the abilities of the individual, like controlling currency, directing investment and adjusting the distribution of income and wealth.
- In the United Kingdom, Keynes' ideas influenced the creation of the welfare state after World War II. The National Health Service, established in 1948, revolutionized healthcare by making it free at the point of use for all citizens.
- Governments should spend money to create jobs, even if it meant going into debt. This concept of public works as a tool for economic recovery would reshape how nations approach unemployment and economic downturns. Keynes argued that during recessions, when businesses weren't investing and consumers weren't spending, the government should step in to fill the gap.
- For example, when you hear about Germany's comprehensive health care system, strong labor protections, and heavily subsidized education, you're seeing a modern interpretation of Keynesian ideals.
- He imagined a world where the struggle for subsistence would be solved. In this future, people would work just 15 hours a week, devoting the rest of their time to leisure and self-improvement. He believed that technological advancement would free humanity from the need for constant toil.
Quotes:
- "During the war it was useful to refrain from from any avoidable expenditure because this would release resources for the insatiable demands of military operations. What are we releasing resources for today? To stand on street corners and draw the dole."
Notes:
- the issues Keynes wrestled with—economic inequality, the balance between state intervention and free markets, international cooperation—are just as relevant today
- Consider the recent sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. These measures aim to deter aggression, but they also risk pushing Russia into economic isolation and potentially greater hostility.
- When you see images of protest or unrest in countries facing economic hardship, you're seeing the human cost of economic decisions.
- investing in economic justice pays dividends for everyone, and not just the few
- He argued that governments should take an active role in managing inflation and deflation. This was a radical departure from the norm. Keynes' proposal for counter-cyclical spending. The idea that a government should spend more during economic downturns to stimulate the economy was revolutionary.
- The notion that a central bank could and should manage the money supply to influence inflation was a radical departure from the previous gold standard. Keynes' work on inflation and deflation laid the groundwork for modern monetary policy. When you hear about quantitative easing or fiscal stimulus today, you're witnessing the long-term impact of Keynes' innovative thinking.
- He argued that unregulated markets could lead to inefficiency, inequality and instability. Keynes wasn't calling for full-blown socialism. Instead, he envisioned a middle ground, a managed capitalism where the government would step in to correct market failures and promote the greater good. He argued that the state should take on tasks that are beyond the abilities of the individual, like controlling currency, directing investment and adjusting the distribution of income and wealth.
- In the United Kingdom, Keynes' ideas influenced the creation of the welfare state after World War II. The National Health Service, established in 1948, revolutionized healthcare by making it free at the point of use for all citizens.
- Governments should spend money to create jobs, even if it meant going into debt. This concept of public works as a tool for economic recovery would reshape how nations approach unemployment and economic downturns. Keynes argued that during recessions, when businesses weren't investing and consumers weren't spending, the government should step in to fill the gap.
- For example, when you hear about Germany's comprehensive health care system, strong labor protections, and heavily subsidized education, you're seeing a modern interpretation of Keynesian ideals.
- He imagined a world where the struggle for subsistence would be solved. In this future, people would work just 15 hours a week, devoting the rest of their time to leisure and self-improvement. He believed that technological advancement would free humanity from the need for constant toil.
Quotes:
- "During the war it was useful to refrain from from any avoidable expenditure because this would release resources for the insatiable demands of military operations. What are we releasing resources for today? To stand on street corners and draw the dole."
May 24, 2016
Wow. A truly exceptional intellect. The only amazingly frustrating thing about the book is that someone thought it was appropriate to use a typeface so large that you get dizzy. The average sentence is probably 70 words, yet each line fits maybe 7 words. Anyway, some excerpts:
"The power to become habituated to his surroundings is a marked characteristic of mankind"
the nature of assemblies...
"If all the parties to the Treaty are unanimously of opinion that it requires alteration in a particular sense, it does not need a League and a Covenant to put the business through"
on russia...
"But what counsels of hope can Revolution offer to sufferers from economic privation, which does not arise out of the injustices of distribution but is general?"
"To convert the business man into the profiteer is to strike a blow at capitalism, because it destroys the psychological equilibrium which permits the perpetuance of unequal rewards"
"It is not the miser who gets rich; but he who lays out his money in fruitful investment"
"We are not nearly so rich as we might be if we could manage our affairs better..."
"Our trouble is, then, not that we lack the physical means to support a high standard of life, but that we are suffering a breakdown in the organization and in the machinery by which we buy and sell to one another"
"we shall be able to rid ourselves of many... principals... by which have have exalted some of the most distasteful of human qualities into the position of the highest virtues."
"...man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem-how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well."
"The power to become habituated to his surroundings is a marked characteristic of mankind"
the nature of assemblies...
"If all the parties to the Treaty are unanimously of opinion that it requires alteration in a particular sense, it does not need a League and a Covenant to put the business through"
on russia...
"But what counsels of hope can Revolution offer to sufferers from economic privation, which does not arise out of the injustices of distribution but is general?"
"To convert the business man into the profiteer is to strike a blow at capitalism, because it destroys the psychological equilibrium which permits the perpetuance of unequal rewards"
"It is not the miser who gets rich; but he who lays out his money in fruitful investment"
"We are not nearly so rich as we might be if we could manage our affairs better..."
"Our trouble is, then, not that we lack the physical means to support a high standard of life, but that we are suffering a breakdown in the organization and in the machinery by which we buy and sell to one another"
"we shall be able to rid ourselves of many... principals... by which have have exalted some of the most distasteful of human qualities into the position of the highest virtues."
"...man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem-how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well."
November 7, 2017
Collection of Keynes' writings published in 1931, mostly concerned with topics that were already passing away (as he recognised): Versailles and the German war reparations; war debts generally; the Gold Standard; the struggles of European governments to adjust to new post-war economic conditions and the temptation of damaging policies aimed at restoring pre-1914 "normality". The Economic Consequences Of Mr Churchill is here, with its residual interest as a reminder that Winston wasn't always great, and that finance ministers can be mugged by special interests. Some ideas that became "Keynsianism" are in prototype form here, but the most interesting sections are the ruminations on culture, the challenge of Soviet Communism, and the future. Ideas about "post-work" in the age of automated production are present here already. JMK was aware of the prevailing gloom about the crisis of European civilisation and all that, but he had a great reserve of liberal optimism to counter it with. Jolly good chap, but take note of the traces of anti-semitism visible, all very respectably and discreetly expressed.
March 16, 2015
This is really a collection of Keynes' articles on a couple of economic subjects. Imagine if Paul Krugman wrote somewhat longer pieces. And then someone selected about 25 at random from a 10-year period between 1918 and 1935 (I know, not 10 years). That's roughly this collection.
In today's environment, Keynes's argument for inflation to increase employment seems timely. And he can be an engaging writer—from time to time.
But some of the argument seems muddled by the dignified language. It is much less direct than necessary.
This is not reproduced well. New articles begin midway through a page with only a year in parenthesis to denote the change. There's not any sort of typographical indication (e.g., a larger font size or bold text) that a particular phrase is an article heading or, for that matter, a section heading. And there are some places where there are numbers that appear to be substituting for some other character.
In today's environment, Keynes's argument for inflation to increase employment seems timely. And he can be an engaging writer—from time to time.
But some of the argument seems muddled by the dignified language. It is much less direct than necessary.
This is not reproduced well. New articles begin midway through a page with only a year in parenthesis to denote the change. There's not any sort of typographical indication (e.g., a larger font size or bold text) that a particular phrase is an article heading or, for that matter, a section heading. And there are some places where there are numbers that appear to be substituting for some other character.
October 27, 2024
In "Essays in Persuasion", John Maynard Keynes provides a collection of writings that not only reflect the economic tensions of the early 20th century but also offer a lasting blueprint for understanding economic stability, the effects of policy decisions, and the crucial role of government in a nation's financial health. Written in the shadow of World War I, Keynes' essays cover a wide array of topics—from the risks of unchecked reparations and economic nationalism to the potential of government intervention in stabilizing economies. With striking clarity, Keynes explores the themes of inflation, deflation, and the perils of laissez-faire capitalism, constructing arguments that have deeply influenced economic policy throughout the 20th century and continue to resonate with today’s global issues.
One of Keynes’ most powerful critiques comes through his analysis of the Treaty of Versailles. In "The Economic Consequences of the Peace", he cautioned against the treaty's heavy reparations imposed on Germany, predicting that such financial strain would lead to economic distress and political instability—a warning that proved prophetic with the rise of fascism and World War II. In examining these reparations, Keynes highlights a timeless economic principle: policies have consequences that extend beyond immediate financial outcomes, often sowing seeds of future conflict or cooperation. This reflection is especially relevant today, as international sanctions and trade restrictions have become commonplace in responses to global conflicts. Keynes reminds us that economic pressure, if not thoughtfully applied, can backfire, deepening hostilities instead of promoting peace.
Keynes’ essays also advocate for government involvement in moderating the economy. In a time when the prevailing wisdom was to allow market forces to regulate themselves, Keynes introduced the idea of counter-cyclical spending—where the government would stimulate the economy during downturns through public spending, rather than imposing austerity. His suggestion that governments actively manage inflation, prevent deflation, and maintain employment marked a revolutionary shift away from the "invisible hand" ideology that dominated economic thought. By arguing that the government should intervene to stabilize economies during crises, Keynes laid the groundwork for what we now consider standard economic policy, as seen in the extensive fiscal interventions by governments worldwide during economic recessions.
In addition to his economic insights, Keynes critiques the limitations of laissez-faire capitalism. He contended that unregulated markets often fail to address societal needs, as they prioritize profit over welfare and lead to both economic and social inequalities. Proposing a "managed capitalism" that emphasizes government intervention to address market failures and protect public welfare, Keynes inspired economic reforms such as the New Deal in the United States and the establishment of the welfare state in the UK. Programs like Social Security, unemployment insurance, and public works projects in the U.S. are legacies of this Keynesian perspective. In Europe, Keynes’ vision contributed to the formation of institutions like the National Health Service in the UK, showcasing how his economic theories were implemented to safeguard public well-being.
In his writing on public works, Keynes argued that government spending to create jobs—even at the risk of accruing debt—was necessary during economic downturns. During the Great Depression, he suggested employing individuals in public works as a means of jumpstarting the economy, understanding that this would put money back into people’s pockets and fuel demand. This approach was notably realized in projects like the Works Progress Administration (WPA) in the United States, which not only provided employment but also fostered a flourishing of cultural and public infrastructure. In many ways, Keynes’ argument for job creation as an economic stimulus laid the foundation for modern policies aimed at sustaining employment through government intervention.
Keynes also had a remarkably progressive vision for the future, anticipating a world where technology and economic growth would lead to shorter workweeks and more leisure time. In his essay "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren", he predicted that rising living standards would reduce the need for labor, leaving future generations with more time for personal development. While the 15-hour workweek he imagined is still far from a reality, Keynes’ ideas on work-life balance have sparked conversations on universal basic income and the four-day workweek, both of which aim to address the human need for both productivity and rest. Keynes was deeply aware of the psychological and societal impacts of work and leisure, recognizing that economic policy is not only about wealth but about enhancing quality of life.
In summary, "Essays in Persuasion" remains a profound exploration of economic policy, social responsibility, and human progress. Keynes' essays provide a nuanced understanding of economic cycles, the role of government, and the intricate connections between politics, economics, and society. His work continues to shape economic debates today, reminding us that well-designed policies are essential to creating a stable, prosperous, and equitable world. By revisiting these essays, readers gain insight into how thoughtful economic philosophy can inspire policies that support not just economic growth, but human flourishing.
One of Keynes’ most powerful critiques comes through his analysis of the Treaty of Versailles. In "The Economic Consequences of the Peace", he cautioned against the treaty's heavy reparations imposed on Germany, predicting that such financial strain would lead to economic distress and political instability—a warning that proved prophetic with the rise of fascism and World War II. In examining these reparations, Keynes highlights a timeless economic principle: policies have consequences that extend beyond immediate financial outcomes, often sowing seeds of future conflict or cooperation. This reflection is especially relevant today, as international sanctions and trade restrictions have become commonplace in responses to global conflicts. Keynes reminds us that economic pressure, if not thoughtfully applied, can backfire, deepening hostilities instead of promoting peace.
Keynes’ essays also advocate for government involvement in moderating the economy. In a time when the prevailing wisdom was to allow market forces to regulate themselves, Keynes introduced the idea of counter-cyclical spending—where the government would stimulate the economy during downturns through public spending, rather than imposing austerity. His suggestion that governments actively manage inflation, prevent deflation, and maintain employment marked a revolutionary shift away from the "invisible hand" ideology that dominated economic thought. By arguing that the government should intervene to stabilize economies during crises, Keynes laid the groundwork for what we now consider standard economic policy, as seen in the extensive fiscal interventions by governments worldwide during economic recessions.
In addition to his economic insights, Keynes critiques the limitations of laissez-faire capitalism. He contended that unregulated markets often fail to address societal needs, as they prioritize profit over welfare and lead to both economic and social inequalities. Proposing a "managed capitalism" that emphasizes government intervention to address market failures and protect public welfare, Keynes inspired economic reforms such as the New Deal in the United States and the establishment of the welfare state in the UK. Programs like Social Security, unemployment insurance, and public works projects in the U.S. are legacies of this Keynesian perspective. In Europe, Keynes’ vision contributed to the formation of institutions like the National Health Service in the UK, showcasing how his economic theories were implemented to safeguard public well-being.
In his writing on public works, Keynes argued that government spending to create jobs—even at the risk of accruing debt—was necessary during economic downturns. During the Great Depression, he suggested employing individuals in public works as a means of jumpstarting the economy, understanding that this would put money back into people’s pockets and fuel demand. This approach was notably realized in projects like the Works Progress Administration (WPA) in the United States, which not only provided employment but also fostered a flourishing of cultural and public infrastructure. In many ways, Keynes’ argument for job creation as an economic stimulus laid the foundation for modern policies aimed at sustaining employment through government intervention.
Keynes also had a remarkably progressive vision for the future, anticipating a world where technology and economic growth would lead to shorter workweeks and more leisure time. In his essay "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren", he predicted that rising living standards would reduce the need for labor, leaving future generations with more time for personal development. While the 15-hour workweek he imagined is still far from a reality, Keynes’ ideas on work-life balance have sparked conversations on universal basic income and the four-day workweek, both of which aim to address the human need for both productivity and rest. Keynes was deeply aware of the psychological and societal impacts of work and leisure, recognizing that economic policy is not only about wealth but about enhancing quality of life.
In summary, "Essays in Persuasion" remains a profound exploration of economic policy, social responsibility, and human progress. Keynes' essays provide a nuanced understanding of economic cycles, the role of government, and the intricate connections between politics, economics, and society. His work continues to shape economic debates today, reminding us that well-designed policies are essential to creating a stable, prosperous, and equitable world. By revisiting these essays, readers gain insight into how thoughtful economic philosophy can inspire policies that support not just economic growth, but human flourishing.
September 26, 2016
What a clear-headed human!
The compilation of essays by JM Keynes is best taken in instalments. It is an omnium gatherum of pellucid and well reasoned predictions, positions and commentaries on politics, economy, philosophy, and a bonus review of H.G. Wells's book - The World of William Clissold.
I will definitely read it more than twice.
The compilation of essays by JM Keynes is best taken in instalments. It is an omnium gatherum of pellucid and well reasoned predictions, positions and commentaries on politics, economy, philosophy, and a bonus review of H.G. Wells's book - The World of William Clissold.
I will definitely read it more than twice.
December 8, 2024
ESSAYS IN PERSUASION
By John Maynard Keynes
(Book review by Richard Mencer)
Summary: ECONOMIC POETRY
John Maynard Keynes (a.k.a. J.M. Keynes or just Keynes) was an early 20th century British economist. Keynes is considered a revolutionary thinker regarding Macroeconomic principles and application globally post-WWI and during the Great Depression.
I have taught primary Keynes ideology during my tenure as a college professor. Essays in Persuasion is my first deep dive into the brilliancy of this economic luminary that “reigned” 100 years ago.
My summary labeled ECONOMIC POETRY is because the Keynes writing style is witty, clever and persuasive. The words resonate your business heart, but like poetry, the reader needs an interpretation of the authors intent and meaning.
Keynes writing is accomplished and actually fun to read. This book is filled with his essays he wrote between 1919 and 1931. These were written to various governments, politicians, businesses and news outlets.
Essays in Persuasion provides many thoughts challenging politics, newspapers, American ideology, inflation, unemployment, the gold standard, banks and even Winston Churchill. Keynes also provides an in-depth overview of the negative financial impact of Communism.
Keynes summarizes the “new release” 1926 novel The World of William Clissold by H. G. Wells to relate future economic changes and 1930 essay he wrote called “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren “ that reads, almost prophetically, of world changes 100 years in the future.
I would be duplicitous if I did not admit that some of this book was too much for my simple mind to digest. However, I would highly recommend it for those who love economics, business or history.
A few quotes from Keynes that resonated with me …
“Why has the world been so credulous of the unveracities of politicians?”
“In the great events of man's history, in the unwinding of the complex fates of nations Justice is not so simple. And if it were, nations are not authorised, by religion or by natural morals, to visit on the children of their enemies the misdoings of parents or of rulers” (about reparations)
“Negation, Restriction, Inactivity these are the Government's watchwords. Under their leadership we have been forced to button up our waistcoats and compress our lungs. Fears and doubts and hypochondriac precautions are keeping us muffied up indoors. But we are not tottering to our graves. We are healthy children. We need the breath of life. There is nothing to be afraid of. On the contrary.
The future holds in store for us far more wealth and economic freedom and possibilities of personal life than the past has ever offered.”
About Richard …
Richard Mencer is a central Oklahoma small business owner and has operated multiple businesses across the United States over the past 30 years. Richard enjoys business idea creation, implementation/development, and is a leader in employee growth and customer service. Richard and his amazing wife Lisa have been married for 36 years and have 4 grown children, 2 grandchildren and 2 labrador retrievers Duchess and Bella. Richard has a passion for reading and writing and, most importantly, sharing about the incredible love, forgiveness and friendship God freely gives to ALL people.
By John Maynard Keynes
(Book review by Richard Mencer)
Summary: ECONOMIC POETRY
John Maynard Keynes (a.k.a. J.M. Keynes or just Keynes) was an early 20th century British economist. Keynes is considered a revolutionary thinker regarding Macroeconomic principles and application globally post-WWI and during the Great Depression.
I have taught primary Keynes ideology during my tenure as a college professor. Essays in Persuasion is my first deep dive into the brilliancy of this economic luminary that “reigned” 100 years ago.
My summary labeled ECONOMIC POETRY is because the Keynes writing style is witty, clever and persuasive. The words resonate your business heart, but like poetry, the reader needs an interpretation of the authors intent and meaning.
Keynes writing is accomplished and actually fun to read. This book is filled with his essays he wrote between 1919 and 1931. These were written to various governments, politicians, businesses and news outlets.
Essays in Persuasion provides many thoughts challenging politics, newspapers, American ideology, inflation, unemployment, the gold standard, banks and even Winston Churchill. Keynes also provides an in-depth overview of the negative financial impact of Communism.
Keynes summarizes the “new release” 1926 novel The World of William Clissold by H. G. Wells to relate future economic changes and 1930 essay he wrote called “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren “ that reads, almost prophetically, of world changes 100 years in the future.
I would be duplicitous if I did not admit that some of this book was too much for my simple mind to digest. However, I would highly recommend it for those who love economics, business or history.
A few quotes from Keynes that resonated with me …
“Why has the world been so credulous of the unveracities of politicians?”
“In the great events of man's history, in the unwinding of the complex fates of nations Justice is not so simple. And if it were, nations are not authorised, by religion or by natural morals, to visit on the children of their enemies the misdoings of parents or of rulers” (about reparations)
“Negation, Restriction, Inactivity these are the Government's watchwords. Under their leadership we have been forced to button up our waistcoats and compress our lungs. Fears and doubts and hypochondriac precautions are keeping us muffied up indoors. But we are not tottering to our graves. We are healthy children. We need the breath of life. There is nothing to be afraid of. On the contrary.
The future holds in store for us far more wealth and economic freedom and possibilities of personal life than the past has ever offered.”
About Richard …
Richard Mencer is a central Oklahoma small business owner and has operated multiple businesses across the United States over the past 30 years. Richard enjoys business idea creation, implementation/development, and is a leader in employee growth and customer service. Richard and his amazing wife Lisa have been married for 36 years and have 4 grown children, 2 grandchildren and 2 labrador retrievers Duchess and Bella. Richard has a passion for reading and writing and, most importantly, sharing about the incredible love, forgiveness and friendship God freely gives to ALL people.
April 3, 2025
“The Economic Consequences of Mr Churchill” is a short essay by John Maynard Keynes, included in the collection Essays in Persuasion. It draws on a series of three articles published in the Evening Standard in July 1925. Keynes criticized—though not without a certain irony—the British Prime Minister’s attempt to revalue the pound, restoring the exchange rate to its pre–World War I level.
I have no doubt that, were Keynes alive today, he would write The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump. I’m not John Maynard Keynes, and I’ll settle for having written Zombies of Marx — available on Amazon: https://amzn.eu/d/cyUyP93.
I believe that predicting the consequences of economic policies is always difficult—not only because they concern the future, but because they depend on the unpredictability of human action. Understanding human intentions is much easier.
I believe President Trump, through his tariffs, aims to simultaneously reduce the enormous U.S. trade deficit and rebalance the public budget. Tariffs are, of course, just one component of a broader plan that also includes cuts in public spending and lower taxes for producers.
I have no doubt these decisions are made in the interest of the American people. If economic systems worked like clockwork, they might even produce the desired results.
It’s highly likely that tariffs alone won’t be enough to balance the public deficit—especially in the face of generous tax cuts.
What is absolutely certain is that they will increase import prices and reduce demand for foreign goods.
The tariffs imposed by Trump will not eliminate imports altogether, and everything American consumers continue to buy from abroad will cost more. Even goods produced by American manufacturers will eventually become more expensive. Tariffs, after all, raise the prices of foreign goods to allow domestic producers to replace them, despite their higher production costs.
In short: tariffs are a perfect way to create inflation and depress domestic demand—of course, assuming wages don’t rise.
I never would have believed that someone, on this planet, might decide to repeat the failed policies of the European Union, hoping they’ll suddenly work.
How President Trump plans to avoid a wage-price spiral while also persuading the Fed not to raise interest rates remains a mystery to me. I suspect it’s a mystery to him as well—or maybe he thinks Americans will suddenly resign themselves to being poorer?
At this point, you might be asking: what should countries hit by the tariffs do?
I believe Western economies should simply integrate more closely with each other, abandon some of the strange superstitions that circulate—especially in Europe—and ignore Trump’s tariffs.
If someone cuts off their own hand, you don’t need to respond by cutting off your arm.
God never ordered anyone to be stupid.
I have no doubt that, were Keynes alive today, he would write The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump. I’m not John Maynard Keynes, and I’ll settle for having written Zombies of Marx — available on Amazon: https://amzn.eu/d/cyUyP93.
I believe that predicting the consequences of economic policies is always difficult—not only because they concern the future, but because they depend on the unpredictability of human action. Understanding human intentions is much easier.
I believe President Trump, through his tariffs, aims to simultaneously reduce the enormous U.S. trade deficit and rebalance the public budget. Tariffs are, of course, just one component of a broader plan that also includes cuts in public spending and lower taxes for producers.
I have no doubt these decisions are made in the interest of the American people. If economic systems worked like clockwork, they might even produce the desired results.
It’s highly likely that tariffs alone won’t be enough to balance the public deficit—especially in the face of generous tax cuts.
What is absolutely certain is that they will increase import prices and reduce demand for foreign goods.
The tariffs imposed by Trump will not eliminate imports altogether, and everything American consumers continue to buy from abroad will cost more. Even goods produced by American manufacturers will eventually become more expensive. Tariffs, after all, raise the prices of foreign goods to allow domestic producers to replace them, despite their higher production costs.
In short: tariffs are a perfect way to create inflation and depress domestic demand—of course, assuming wages don’t rise.
I never would have believed that someone, on this planet, might decide to repeat the failed policies of the European Union, hoping they’ll suddenly work.
How President Trump plans to avoid a wage-price spiral while also persuading the Fed not to raise interest rates remains a mystery to me. I suspect it’s a mystery to him as well—or maybe he thinks Americans will suddenly resign themselves to being poorer?
At this point, you might be asking: what should countries hit by the tariffs do?
I believe Western economies should simply integrate more closely with each other, abandon some of the strange superstitions that circulate—especially in Europe—and ignore Trump’s tariffs.
If someone cuts off their own hand, you don’t need to respond by cutting off your arm.
God never ordered anyone to be stupid.
November 27, 2019
John Maynard Keynes. Economist, statesman, philosopher. Indeed, one of the greatest men ever to grace this earth, and certainly one of the most important men of the 20th century.
Essays in Persuasion is certainly a refreshing breather from Keynes' academic works (General Theory, Treatise of Money, etc.) This is because the intended audience of Essays in Persuasion were the general public, and the collected articles in Essays were published in none other than newspapers or non-academic journals. Nevertheless, the genius of Keynes does not fail to shine from these pages. I never fail to be positively thrilled from Keynes' writings, and the same applies for Essays. Notably free from academic jargon, Essays allows the general public (indeed, the economic agents that drive the economy!) a chance to peer into one of the greatest minds of all time, and marvel at his prescient thoughts and eloquent discourse.
Apart from the detailed arguments that Keynes' strenuously lays out for his thoughts on monetary policy for most of the book, the last essay in particular struck me, as though God dropped a mallet on my head. With startling prescience, Keynes laid out his predictions for the hundred years to come. In short, he predicted the coming loom of creative destruction (he calls it technical unemployment), the coming exponential improvement of human standards of living and the resolution of the fundamental economic problem (which has yet to come, unfortunately). It is simply too hard to believe, that a man who lived a hundred years ago, saw the events that are unfolding today as though from a crystal ball.
Also throughout the book we can see glimpses of his thoughts that would later present itself as the venerable Keynesian theory of economics. Namely, he urges people to spend, spend, spend, and open the floodgates of money to gush the economy. Keynes was also a stark dissenter to traditional liberalism, and counters the argument for capitalism vehemently.
Why though, in the face of Keynes' absolute ingenuity, do people still wail that Keynes has failed us? Is it not undisputed that this man was a literal genius to the likes of Newton and Darwin, a reformer of economics, God's representative on earth? I think, it is not a defect of his ideas, but a defect of society itself. Society has been rapidly deforming itself to be an unfit recipient of Keynesian economics (artificially inflated asset prices, serious income inequality, liquidity traps etc.) For now, Keynesian theory will have no other place but to stand by the sidelines, and allow other schools of economics to run rampant with their theories.
Essays in Persuasion is certainly a refreshing breather from Keynes' academic works (General Theory, Treatise of Money, etc.) This is because the intended audience of Essays in Persuasion were the general public, and the collected articles in Essays were published in none other than newspapers or non-academic journals. Nevertheless, the genius of Keynes does not fail to shine from these pages. I never fail to be positively thrilled from Keynes' writings, and the same applies for Essays. Notably free from academic jargon, Essays allows the general public (indeed, the economic agents that drive the economy!) a chance to peer into one of the greatest minds of all time, and marvel at his prescient thoughts and eloquent discourse.
Apart from the detailed arguments that Keynes' strenuously lays out for his thoughts on monetary policy for most of the book, the last essay in particular struck me, as though God dropped a mallet on my head. With startling prescience, Keynes laid out his predictions for the hundred years to come. In short, he predicted the coming loom of creative destruction (he calls it technical unemployment), the coming exponential improvement of human standards of living and the resolution of the fundamental economic problem (which has yet to come, unfortunately). It is simply too hard to believe, that a man who lived a hundred years ago, saw the events that are unfolding today as though from a crystal ball.
Also throughout the book we can see glimpses of his thoughts that would later present itself as the venerable Keynesian theory of economics. Namely, he urges people to spend, spend, spend, and open the floodgates of money to gush the economy. Keynes was also a stark dissenter to traditional liberalism, and counters the argument for capitalism vehemently.
Why though, in the face of Keynes' absolute ingenuity, do people still wail that Keynes has failed us? Is it not undisputed that this man was a literal genius to the likes of Newton and Darwin, a reformer of economics, God's representative on earth? I think, it is not a defect of his ideas, but a defect of society itself. Society has been rapidly deforming itself to be an unfit recipient of Keynesian economics (artificially inflated asset prices, serious income inequality, liquidity traps etc.) For now, Keynesian theory will have no other place but to stand by the sidelines, and allow other schools of economics to run rampant with their theories.
July 11, 2024
A COLLECTION OF KEYNES' ESSAYS ON A VARIETY OF SUBJECTS
John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) was most famously the author of 'The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.'
He wrote in the Preface to this 1931 collection, "Here are the croakings of twelve years---the croakings of a Cassandra who could never influence the course of events in time... it was in a spirit of persuasion that most of these essays were written, in an attempt to influence opinion. They were regarded at the time, many of them, as extreme and reckless utterances. But I think... that they contain more understatement than overstatement, as judged by after-events."
He regards the League of Nations' proposed mutual defense treaty as "an almost fatal bias towards the status quo." (Pg. 21) He does endorse the lack of protectionist tariffs within League members, however (Pg. 25).
He suggests that a change in the value of money, in the level of prices, "is important to Society only in so far as its incidence is unequal." (Pg. 80) He suggests that bringing up the "bogy of Inflation" is like "warning a patient who is wasting away from emaciation of the dangers of excessive corpulence." (Pg. 124-125) Governmental borrowing is "nature's remedy, so to speak, for preventing business losses from being... so great as to bring production altogether to a standstill." (Pg. 161)
He admits that profits are a "necessary condition" for the justification of capitalism, but adds that the businessman "is only tolerable so long as his gains can be held to bear some relation to what... his activities have contributed to Society." (Pg. 95)
Concerning the gold standard, he argues that if "a providence watched over gold... I would not... hand over the management to the possible weakness or ignorance of Boards and Governments. But this is not the situation. We have no ready-made standard." (Pg. 206)
Keynes is no Socialist. He refers to Leninism as "the faith of a persecuting and propagating minority of fanatics led by hypocrites... (that) is a religion and not merely a party." (Pg. 298) He says that "I cannot perceive that Russian Communism has made any contribution to our economic problems of intellectual interest or scientific value." (Pg. 306) He also argues that Capitalism, "wisely managed," can be made more efficient for attaining economic ends than any alternative system in sight, but that "in itself it is in many ways extremely objectionable." (Pg. 321)
These essays are of significant interest to students of Keynes, or historical economic theory.
John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) was most famously the author of 'The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.'
He wrote in the Preface to this 1931 collection, "Here are the croakings of twelve years---the croakings of a Cassandra who could never influence the course of events in time... it was in a spirit of persuasion that most of these essays were written, in an attempt to influence opinion. They were regarded at the time, many of them, as extreme and reckless utterances. But I think... that they contain more understatement than overstatement, as judged by after-events."
He regards the League of Nations' proposed mutual defense treaty as "an almost fatal bias towards the status quo." (Pg. 21) He does endorse the lack of protectionist tariffs within League members, however (Pg. 25).
He suggests that a change in the value of money, in the level of prices, "is important to Society only in so far as its incidence is unequal." (Pg. 80) He suggests that bringing up the "bogy of Inflation" is like "warning a patient who is wasting away from emaciation of the dangers of excessive corpulence." (Pg. 124-125) Governmental borrowing is "nature's remedy, so to speak, for preventing business losses from being... so great as to bring production altogether to a standstill." (Pg. 161)
He admits that profits are a "necessary condition" for the justification of capitalism, but adds that the businessman "is only tolerable so long as his gains can be held to bear some relation to what... his activities have contributed to Society." (Pg. 95)
Concerning the gold standard, he argues that if "a providence watched over gold... I would not... hand over the management to the possible weakness or ignorance of Boards and Governments. But this is not the situation. We have no ready-made standard." (Pg. 206)
Keynes is no Socialist. He refers to Leninism as "the faith of a persecuting and propagating minority of fanatics led by hypocrites... (that) is a religion and not merely a party." (Pg. 298) He says that "I cannot perceive that Russian Communism has made any contribution to our economic problems of intellectual interest or scientific value." (Pg. 306) He also argues that Capitalism, "wisely managed," can be made more efficient for attaining economic ends than any alternative system in sight, but that "in itself it is in many ways extremely objectionable." (Pg. 321)
These essays are of significant interest to students of Keynes, or historical economic theory.
November 26, 2020
Short polemics on war reparations, the treasury view, gold standard, other stuff. I really don't get how anyone could like Keynes style or very muddle headed way of trying to make points. Some more amusing stuff as well, from his review of H. G. Wells "The World of William Clissold":
...Why do practical men find it more amusing to make money than to join the Open Conspiracy? I suggest that it is much the same reason as that which makes them find it more amusing to play bridge on Sundays than to go to church. They lack altogether the kind of motive, the possession of which, if they had it, could be expressed by saying that they had a creed. They have no creed, these potential open conspirators, no creed whatever. That is why, unless they have the luck to be scientists or artists, they fall back on the grand substitute motive, the perfect Ersatz, the anodyne for those who, in fact, want nothing at all—Money. Clissold charges the enthusiasts of Labour that they have "feelings in the place of ideas." But he does not deny that they have feelings. Has not, perhaps, poor Mr. Cook something which Clissold lacks? Clissold and his brother Dickon, the advertising expert, flutter about the world seeking for something to which they can attach their abundant libido. But they have not found it. They would so like to be Apostles. But they cannot. They remain business men.
December 21, 2021
This collection of essays starts in early 1919 with him railing against the Treaty of Versailles. He explains repeatedly that Germany can't possibly pay the reparations. Even if the Allies could enforce them, they were in his words immoral for punishing the children of your enemies. The Allies were doing nothing but setting up Europe for failure and something even worse than the recent Great War. Further, the US and Britain were the only ones left standing with the ability to rebuild the continent. He pushed for this to be the plan instead of the deadly route that was taken. At least Gen Marshall must have read his thoughts at some point before the end of the next war.
Unfortunately, a large section is dedicated to essays trying to explain the folly of the gold standard. Which pretty much everyone by now has figured this out. However, he is writing from that time where nations were still struggling with the issue. If you're wondering why no nation is going to go back to it this might be worth reading.
Unfortunately, a large section is dedicated to essays trying to explain the folly of the gold standard. Which pretty much everyone by now has figured this out. However, he is writing from that time where nations were still struggling with the issue. If you're wondering why no nation is going to go back to it this might be worth reading.
December 8, 2019
"And here emerges more clearly what is in truth his central thesis throughout,—the profound conviction that the Economic Problem, as one may call it for short, the problem of want and poverty and the economic struggle between classes and nations, is nothing but a frightful muddle, a transitory and an unnecessary muddle. For the Western World already has the resources and the technique, if we could create the organisation to use them, capable of reducing the Economic Problem, which now absorbs our moral and material energies, to a position of secondary importance.
Thus the author of these essays, for all his croakings, still hopes and believes that the day is not far off when the Economic Problem will take the back seat where it belongs, and that the arena of the heart and head will be occupied, or re-occupied, by our real problems—the problems of life and of human relations, of creation and behaviour and religion."
Thus the author of these essays, for all his croakings, still hopes and believes that the day is not far off when the Economic Problem will take the back seat where it belongs, and that the arena of the heart and head will be occupied, or re-occupied, by our real problems—the problems of life and of human relations, of creation and behaviour and religion."
May 26, 2023
There are some really good explanations of concepts that could easily be made more complicated, but that would not be beneficial. It is important that regular people can understand at least enough of things that affect them and the decisions that get made.
While these essays are coming from a very specific time period -- between two world wars, with one not quite predicted yet -- that doesn't make them seem dated really; many contemporary issues are the same.
There is some dated language ("milliards" instead of "billions", for example), and Keynes is writing from within a colonial empire and not judging it, but the attitude he displays throughout makes me think he would have been able to adapt to better views.
While these essays are coming from a very specific time period -- between two world wars, with one not quite predicted yet -- that doesn't make them seem dated really; many contemporary issues are the same.
There is some dated language ("milliards" instead of "billions", for example), and Keynes is writing from within a colonial empire and not judging it, but the attitude he displays throughout makes me think he would have been able to adapt to better views.
October 27, 2024
Summary:
From his warnings about the consequences of harsh peace treaties to his revolutionary ideas about government economic intervention, Keynes' work laid the foundation for modern economic policies and institutions. His vision of a future with reduced working hours and increased leisure time continues to influence debates about work-life balance and universal basic income. He urges us to consider the long-term consequences of economic decisions and to strive for a more equitable distribution of prosperity. Understanding these ideas provides valuable context for navigating the complex economic landscape of the 21st century and beyond.
From his warnings about the consequences of harsh peace treaties to his revolutionary ideas about government economic intervention, Keynes' work laid the foundation for modern economic policies and institutions. His vision of a future with reduced working hours and increased leisure time continues to influence debates about work-life balance and universal basic income. He urges us to consider the long-term consequences of economic decisions and to strive for a more equitable distribution of prosperity. Understanding these ideas provides valuable context for navigating the complex economic landscape of the 21st century and beyond.
October 27, 2024
“from his warnings about the consequences of harsh peace treaties to his revolutionary ideas about government economic intervention, Keynes' work laid the foundation for modern economic policies and institutions. His vision of a future with reduced working hours and increased leisure time continues to influence debates about work-life balance and universal basic income. He urges us to consider the long-term consequences of economic decisions and to strive for a more equitable distribution of prosperity. Understanding these ideas provides valuable context for navigating the complex economic landscape of the 21st century and beyond.”
December 12, 2022
Essays on Inflation and deflation are still relevant even after almost 100 years…clarity on macroeconomics are quite thoughtful as well as the last essay on the future (100 years from 1930)…
However, some other essays on war and it’s implications to the world in general as well as British empire related topics (including politics) seem outdated and too much written to make a point…
However, some other essays on war and it’s implications to the world in general as well as British empire related topics (including politics) seem outdated and too much written to make a point…
August 29, 2020
Economics lessons for today
Provides valuable insights into today’s economic issues. Economic Consequences of the Peace resonates uncomfortably with the current state of the Brexit negotiations.
Provides valuable insights into today’s economic issues. Economic Consequences of the Peace resonates uncomfortably with the current state of the Brexit negotiations.
January 6, 2018
Awesome book.
Want to read
January 26, 2023Warrent Buffet recomendation
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
November 3, 2024
Tremendamente profetico
November 4, 2024
hard to read
January 7, 2025
Not going to finish this. Shockingly, interwar economic journalism can become rather dull
September 7, 2021
The Essays in Persuasion is an interesting collection which is often referred to as prophetic. Keynes was not prophetic, he simply understood his field to a standard that Buffett understands finance, Einstein understood physics and Scipio Africanus understood war. All of these individuals were and are specialists in their field, and it is always interesting to read about them. Keynes' essays though allow us to delve deeper into his perception of the world and what could be done and what should not be done on a macro level with finance, politics, population and their interactions; in one word, economics.
John Maynard Keynes was the one of the greatest economists of his day and is still viewed in the same light. Economics along with all other social sciences, sciences and mathematics continues to evolve as our perception, interactions, and instrumentations for analysis evolve. China, at its core and by the standards of its social contract is Keynesian at heart, and any time there is a blip in global markets, China reacts in that manner. No handouts, simply a massive cash inject into industrial and structural growth to ensure people are working for what they earn and are able to spend that on what they want = continued growth and development.
There is though, a lot of push back against the growth fetish associated with Keynes' style of economic stimulation. Most importantly that is all it is - push back. Why? Keynes was right. People need to work to give them the ability to develop and sustain themselves - pride and food are the individuals base sustenance. This then filters into a community, region and nation with positive effect. The opposite also occurs when fiscal validity is reversed or removed, with the slowing down and or stagnation of the economy. An economy is no different to an ecosystem, while it is in balance it is sustainable, and when it becomes unhealthy it will need nutrition and guidance to bring it back into balance.
Keynes' essays demonstrate all of these fascinating tools that economists and politicians can and should use to maintain and sustain the economy. This is evident in Keynes' opinion on the gold standard, which is something akin to building a brick wall around a forest and wondering why it won't grow with the forest. The essays view on the treatment of debt, and especially the debt associated with World War 1 is revealing and fascinating. Keynes also spells out how best to manage the nearly failed state of Germany, but he looks at the problem logically and the politicians looked at emotionally and opportunistically. Hence we are ingloriously led into World War 2.
Essays in Persuasion is interesting and fascinating read that i have found revealing and stimulating, well beyond what i had expected. I hope whoever reads it also finds the same the same interesting perceptions of an interesting economist.
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