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The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives Audible Audiobook – Unabridged

Leonard Mlodinow (Author), Sean Pratt (Narrator), Gildan Media, LLC (Publisher)
4.4 out of 5 stars 1,827 ratings
In this irreverent and illuminating audiobook, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, chance, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious causes, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.

The rise and fall of your favorite movie star or the most reviled CEO - in fact, all our destinies - reflects chance as much as planning and innate abilities. Even Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single season home-run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky.

How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars by one journal and called the worst wine of the decade by another? Wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

Offering listeners not only a tour of randomness, chance and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man afresh from a night at a bar.

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  1. Listening Length
    9 hours and 19 minutes
  2. Author
    Leonard Mlodinow
  3. Narrator
    Sean Pratt
  4. Audible release date
    June 26, 2008
  5. Language
    English
  6. Publisher
    Gildan Media, LLC
  7. ASIN
    B001BSJHRC
  8. Version
    Unabridged
  9. Program Type
    Audiobook
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Product details

Listening Length 9 hours and 19 minutes
Author Leonard Mlodinow
Narrator Sean Pratt
Whispersync for Voice Ready
Audible.com Release Date June 26, 2008
Publisher Gildan Media, LLC
Program Type Audiobook
Version Unabridged
Language English
ASIN B001BSJHRC
Best Sellers Rank

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4.4 out of 5 stars
1,827 global ratings

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Customers say

Customers find the book interesting by linking real life to probability, with one review noting how it weaves the history of mathematics and statistics throughout the narrative. Moreover, the writing style presents complex concepts in plain language, making it an entertaining and educational read. Additionally, customers appreciate the book's pacing, with one review highlighting the author's expertise in mathematics, and they find it enlightening, with one mentioning how it improves perspective on life's random issues.

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InsightReadabilityWriting styleEnjoymentEnlightenednessPacing
134 customers mention "Insight"134 positive0 negative

Customers find the book insightful, appreciating how it links real-life situations to probability and weaving the history of mathematics and statistics throughout the narrative.

"I found Leonard Mlodinow's discussion of randomness and probability here very interesting...." Read more

"...The book also recounts in chronological order the major developments in probability and statistics with interesting background information on the..." Read more

"...by far the more interesting heuristically is the former, and skillfully uses examples (such as random number series) to show how it happens...." Read more

"...way Mlodinow presents the topic is certainly thought-provoking and philosophical, but I would urge the reader to remain a bit skeptical...." Read more

124 customers mention "Readability"124 positive0 negative

Customers find the book readable and enlightening, with one customer noting it's particularly valuable for understanding human behavior.

"...I have NEVER read a book that explains the concepts so well...." Read more

"...Anyway, I thought this was a great book. I would recommend it to just about anyone." Read more

"...The majority of the book has important value but the premise that our lives are ruled completely by luck is ill-founded...." Read more

"...Having given the reader a useful store of background knowledge in the first nine chapters, the author introduces the kernel of the book's..." Read more

115 customers mention "Writing style"91 positive24 negative

Customers appreciate the writing style of the book, which presents complex concepts in plain language and is presented in a very readable form.

"...At every step the theory is presented in a very simple though meaningful way by use of practical examples...." Read more

"...But all of these books are short and well-written: quite literally, you can read them all (or listen to them unabridged, as I did), and it will..." Read more

"...professor Leonard Mlodinow goes about explaining probability and statistics in very simple terms, accessible to most anyone with a yearning to know..." Read more

"...It is amazing how simple probables can be so confusing yet seemingly complicated probables can be so simple...." Read more

81 customers mention "Enjoyment"72 positive9 negative

Customers find the book entertaining and engaging, with one customer describing it as a delightful ramble through history.

"...There was no need for the corny humour;..." Read more

"...dry mathematical topics makes for an interesting, easy, and pleasurable read (without the condescending tone of similar books, e.g. [..." Read more

"...This book was captivating from the perspective of a psychology major, but anyone with a basic knowledge of mathematics and probability would benefit..." Read more

"...is a good compendium of probability related topics that are presented in an entertaining and relevant way...." Read more

35 customers mention "Enlightenedness"26 positive9 negative

Customers find the book enlightening, with one mentioning it helps improve perspective on life's random issues, while another notes it makes them feel smarter after reading.

"...relates are wonderful and well-told. The progression is thoughtful and coherent and interesting...." Read more

"...] has more intellectual discipline (staying focused on the current topic), [..." Read more

"...4. Tracking the Pathways to Success 5. The Dueling Laws of Large and Small Numbers 6. False Positives and Positive Fallacies 7...." Read more

"...provocative vignettes but not as readable, enjoyable or enlightening as Subliminal or Upright Thinkers." Read more

11 customers mention "Pacing"8 positive3 negative

Customers appreciate the pacing of the book, with one review noting the author's expertise in mathematics and physics, while another mentions how the author stays true to the mathematical theory throughout.

"...in probability and statistics with interesting background information on the mathematician responsible for each breakthrough...." Read more

"This smart book will make you think. Academic yet easy to read, it explores how random events shape the world and how human intuition fights that..." Read more

"...'s main thesis that flows throughout the book, that success and failure is random and is not related to personal talent or skill...." Read more

"...The book reveals fallacies that we hold without awareness and a historical overview of statistics and how a science meant to clarify is often used..." Read more

Top reviews from the United States

  • Randolph Eck
    5.0 out of 5 stars The Role of Randomness in Our Lives
    Reviewed in the United States on June 26, 2013
    Verified Purchase
    I found Leonard Mlodinow's discussion of randomness and probability here very interesting. I have always been easily confused by all this probability stuff. Thanks to Mlodinow, I now have a much better understanding. Apparently I am not alone, however. In response to an answer Marilyn vos Savant, of Parade Magazine, gave for a probability question (which door to pick on the TV show Let's Make a Deal after being shown one had a goat behind it), over a 1000 PhDs wrote in claiming she was wrong in her assessment - she was actually right!

    Mlodinow begins by discussing some fundamental probability rules such as when probabilities are additive or multiplicative. We see the first inklings of probability with Gerolamo Cardano, the Italian Renaissance mathematician of the 16th century, and Galileo. But "with the blossoming of the scientific revolution the frontiers of randomness moved from Italy to France." Here we me the heroes of this revolution, Pascal, Descartes, and Fermat. What I found intriguing was Pascal's triangle, and how it could be used today in such practical ways. For example, if you have a focus group of six people examining a new product that, let's say, has an appeal to half of the general population, what is the probability that the focus group will be misled? From Pascal's triangle, we can determine that it is about two-thirds. Who would have thought? Later on, we are introduced to the works of Adolphe Quètelet, Francis Galton, Karl Pearson, Albert Einstein, and others.

    Throughout the book we are introduce to various interesting concepts. In the chapter "False Positives and Positive Fallacies," the concept of conditional probability and the appeal of conspiracy theories was enlightening. The author notes that the appeal of many conspiracy theories "depends on confusing the probability that a series of events would happen if it were a product of a huge conspiracy with the probability that a huge conspiracy exists if a series of events occurs." You have to think about that for a moment. Another interesting concept is something called expectancy bias. When we perform an assessment or measurement, we do not rely solely on perceptual input, but we tend to integrate other sources of information such as our expectations. For example, a cheap wine disguised as an expensive one might be judged as a high quality wine. Another interesting concept is the hot hand fallacy. A classic example would be a fund manager who has a long winning streak - is it a random event or not? Mlodinow explains how a random event can, in fact, have the illusion of not being random. Ever hear of sharpshooter effect? This comes into play when we hear of, let's say, a cancer cluster in a particular area. If you draw the boundaries after the fact, you may introduce this effect. Another concept is confirmation bias where we preferentially seek evidence to support our perceived notions about a subject. This happens frequently in politics, which can lead to further polarization of sides.

    In the chapter entitled the same as the book, we find an interesting chart displaying fund manager's relative rank verses their performance relative to a median return for the period 1991-1995. It shows, from left to right, the best performers to the worst (vertical bar chart). He then shows that same chart for the period 1996-2000. What a difference; it now looks totally random. So much for stock picking! As Mlodinow notes, "The study of randomness tells us that the crystal ball view of events is possible, unfortunately, only after they happen." In government, the "should-have-known" blame it game is always played after some event - think Pearl Harbor, the World Trade Center attack, and, most recently, Benghazi. We learn how randomness may have played a role in the lives of some famous people such as Bruce Willis and Bill Gates. Yes there is a connection between talent and rewards, but random influences are more important than we might think.

    Truly, "In the scientific study of random processes the drunkard's walk is the archetype."
    13 people found this helpful
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  • Leonardo Alves
    4.0 out of 5 stars All looks yellow to a jaundiced eye
    Reviewed in the United States on January 18, 2010
    Verified Purchase
    A friend who is a journalist recommended me this book over some beers. She quoted as an example the cool fact that Apple made the music selection of the Ipod Shuffle less random so that it would "appear more random" to the listener for not repeating back-to-back the same song or artist. This example shows how we often misinterpret randomness.

    The book is filled with other interesting situations from the sports world, gambling and a bold bet against an Aussie state lottery, trial by mathematics, education and grading, investing, medical care, and other aspects of our daily lives.

    The book also recounts in chronological order the major developments in probability and statistics with interesting background information on the mathematician responsible for each breakthrough. At every step the theory is presented in a very simple though meaningful way by use of practical examples.

    What my journalist friend probably didn't realize is that I am a trained geo-statistician or someone who makes a living by applying probability distribution and statistical analysis to assessing mineral deposits and this gives me special tinted lenses through which I tend to see the world. So here are my pet peeves::

    1 - The book has a table of contents, an index and notes but it doesn't have a reference section or list of quoted books and papers sorted by author. This has become standard in modern nonfiction books;

    2 - Randomness is a fascinating subject and the author has researched it well and filled the book with fascinating examples. There was no need for the corny humour;

    3 - The book explains how the lack of mathematical notation held back for centuries advances in math and science. The equal sign, according to the book, was invented in the year 1557 by the British mathematician Robert Recorde, but the book does not have a single equal sign or a single mathematical expression for that matter. So it puts us back in the 16th century at best;

    4 - In The Blank Slate Steven Pinker explains how the human brain has a simple built in probability calculator. Of course this calculator often miscalculates. An additional chapter on Mlodinow's book addressing behavioural psychology, the physiology and evolution of this primitive built in probability calculator would be, in my opinion, a great addition.

    5 - I first read about the "Drunkard's Walk" on the book Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin by Stephen Jay Gould. In that book the allegory included the drunkard walking down a sidewalk with a wall to the right side and a gutter to the left. As the wall is an impenetrable barrier regardless of the randomness of each stumble (to the right or to the left) the drunkard's future is inevitable:: he will end laying in the gutter. With this allegory and a competent introduction to probability the late Stephen Jay Gould tries to prove that the apparent trend of evolution to climb a ladder of complexity with mankind atop is nothing more than a drunkard's walk contained on one side by the lower limit of complexity in living organisms. I prefer Gould's allegory and in many respects I prefer Full House over Mlodinow's book but Full House is focused in evolutionary biology and - what else ? - baseball.

    If you never had the chance to study statistics in college or if you did it many years ago and never really practised it here is an entertaining way to get a crash or refresher course. If you, like myself, see things through jaundiced eyes then reach down to the bottom of your pocket and the bottom of your purse and pull out that pair of cheap sunglasses...

    Leonardo Alves
    Belo Horizonte - Brazil - 2010
    10 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

  • Sphex
    5.0 out of 5 stars Let us not be outperformed by a rat
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 8, 2008
    Verified Purchase
    I was surprised to learn that the Greeks did not have a theory of probability. Their belief "that the future unfolded according to the will of the gods" and their taste for "absolute truth" did not encourage the study of chance. Where pristine philosophy failed, the more grubby pastime of gambling succeeded in motivating probability theory. And, in true statistical style, it only took a handful of gamblers out of a large enough sample to get things going.

    Today we might as well be Greeks for all that we understand or even recognize uncertainty. Even if we do not share the view that everything happens for a reason, it is still easy to ignore the role chance plays in our lives. We humans, with our big brains and clever language and propensity for story telling, are well equipped for this kind of failure. When it comes to recognizing randomness, we can be "outperformed by a rat". If this fact piques your curiosity or lowers your self-esteem, read on, and this superb book should satisfy one and restore the other. It is anything but a drunkard's walk through an intellectual maze. Mathematics, the social sciences, psychology, economics, brain studies, all contribute to the modern understanding of this fascinating area. By the end, several important ideas should have become straightened out into the intellectual equivalent of broad, tree-lined avenues, and you might agree with a quotation from Max Born: "Chance is a more fundamental conception than causality."

    First off, do not panic. Even a Harvard professor specializing in probability and statistics admits we're not cut out for this kind of thinking - which makes Mlodinow's achievement in writing an entertaining book from which you can actually learn something all the more remarkable. For example, I've come across the Monty Hall problem before, and thought I'd understood it, sort of, although it was like having to read a novel by following the words with my finger. This time, it was easier, partly to do with the way in which Mlodinow introduces the concept of the sample space and breaks down the problem into manageable pieces, and partly because his style is so engaging. It helps that he writes in the first person, and is neither afraid to draw on personal experience nor cringe making when he does so.

    One major theme is the "fundamental clash between our need to feel we are in control and our ability to recognize randomness." Research by scientists like Kahneman and Tversky shows how deep-rooted this is. Most of us have been duped by optical illusions, but while these "seldom have much relevance in our everyday world" cognitive biases or systematic errors, on the other hand, "play an important role in human decision making." For example, confirmation bias occurs when we attempt to prove our ideas correct instead of searching for ways to prove them wrong, and "it presents a major impediment to our ability to break free from the misinterpretation of randomness."

    Abstract notions are never allowed to wander far before being pinned down by concrete illustrations, often taken from remarkably current affairs. There are two graphs - proper sciency pictures with numbers and axes and everything - which are striking in their portrayal of a startling truth: they show the performance of fund managers over two five-year periods, and while one is a nice orderly ranking from good to bad, the other looks "like random noise". You could have no better illustration of the small print that past performance is no guide to future returns - so why do we pay huge fees to these so-called experts to manage our money, when a large chunk of their "performance" is down to luck? It is salutary to learn that even Wall Street superstars cannot consistently beat the average market return. "People systematically fail to see the role of chance in the success of ventures": the CEO of Merrill Lynch could one year "be celebrated as the risk-taking genius responsible" for the company's success and then, "after the credit market collapsed, derided as the risk-taking cowboy responsible" for its failure. These are important lessons to learn, especially now that even red-blooded capitalists are beginning to question the stratospheric pay packets of financiers.

    We need to move beyond "the deterministic view of the marketplace" in which "it is mainly the intrinsic qualities of the person or the product that governs success." The "nondeterministic view" - not confined to the stock market - holds that "there are many high-quality but unknown books, singers, actors, and what makes one or another come to stand out is largely a conspiracy of random and minor factors - that is, luck. In this view the traditional executives are just spinning their wheels." Such a wholesale change in our thinking seems too much to hope for, given how much "we rely on gut instinct" in everyday life and how tempting it is to see purpose where there is none, to "pay lip service to the concept of chance" but to "behave as though chance events are subject to control."

    Uncertainty is a modern sin that dare not speak its name. There are always pundits on hand to explain the past and prophesy the future, to nurture some of society's "shared illusions". If you want to "learn to view both explanations and prophecies with skepticism" then the "Drunkard's Walk" is an excellent introduction.
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  • Jacob
    5.0 out of 5 stars Good read
    Reviewed in Germany on January 29, 2024
    Verified Purchase
    This is one of the boks you can read with pleasure and have a laugh while learning something important.

    The content is very well written and easy to follow, while having little funny bits added by the autor that make this book one of the best I have ever read.
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  • Neha Chaturvedi
    5.0 out of 5 stars Brilliance at its best, thanks leonard for this book. Good delivery by amazon
    Reviewed in India on June 2, 2017
    Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
    Magnificent... I don't know where to start so I will go randomly! I guess that's what universe or whatever lies beyond and further might have thought to itself before <insert randomly> choosing planet earth from numerous others while placing it 'perfectly' (read randomly instead) for life as we think we know it...

    That is exactly what this book describes. We know even evolution had chance element at its heart. The author is truly brilliant as probability, randomness and statistics are not very well received or learnt subjects even today but reading these topics from this book was a breeze. However truth be told, two-three examples I found were little dense in the book or its possible I have not been able to follow but abstractions had helped in understanding those as well. I will go back to the book sometime later anyway.

    There are stories picked up to narrate why determinism is not what is everywhere...but it is what we seek and how things that seem absolute are in reality only the probability distributions (like how we know from uncertainty principle & schroedinger's observation theory as well anyway..although these are my conjecture). But we, because of our developed biases try to make it definitive.

    So many stories are mentioned of tremendous success, so few you could believe had to do with measuring talent by results after reading the book.

    It is like strings of events/non-events going on & on & on endlessly, mindlessly, randomly, hopelessly, meaninglessly and we just have happened to be somewhere along, around, under, over, hanging, running on those strings trying to make our way by thinking that probabilities & patterns are absolute or deterministic.

    The examples of 1) mathematical expectation, 2) infinite sequence of zeroes and ones could produce what seem to be definitive patterns, 3) the probabilities of success explained through the story of a successful market analyst and 4) finding theft, fraud, anomaly through pascal's triangle or bell curve were like the light switch!!
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  • Pedro
    5.0 out of 5 stars Worth reading twice
    Reviewed in Spain on September 21, 2022
    Verified Purchase
    This book builds, chapter by chapter, on how probability and statistics come to become a thing, and how our understand of this field still bother us, since we have a really hard time ceasing from using our intuition.

    This is worth reading from anyone that have a need to better understanding chance/randomness and how this affect our life and way to see the world. As a data analyst I find this very useful.
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  • G.
    5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent popularization of randomness, statistics and probabilities
    Reviewed in France on June 14, 2014
    Verified Purchase
    It is not so easy to find books about those topics, like e.g. Bayesian reasoning without ending up reading some tedious scientific accounts full of complicated formulas, yet not getting anything of the substance of the ideas discussed. This one is not like that. It reads like a novel, yet provides a lot of insight into the topic of randomness. Well done, Mr. Mlodinow!
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