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Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications.
The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
344 pages, Paperback
First published August 19, 1996
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Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews
October 1, 2023
Great read. You must be a professional or a nerd to enjoy it fully though. I'm the latter and I enjoy books like these. I learn a lot of new concepts, ideas and my thoughts become more organized reading these books.
This one In particular helped me think more systematically and form better arguements when thinking and talking about economy and history.
Since I'm no professional in the fields concerning this book, (political science, sociology, etc.) I don't really care if some ideas or theories might be a bit outdated.
Also I must add Mr. Tetlock has other great books and works I plan to read in the future.
This one In particular helped me think more systematically and form better arguements when thinking and talking about economy and history.
Since I'm no professional in the fields concerning this book, (political science, sociology, etc.) I don't really care if some ideas or theories might be a bit outdated.
Also I must add Mr. Tetlock has other great books and works I plan to read in the future.
March 11, 2025
If you are looking to read a bout that speculate about history and tells what if stories this is not your book.
If you want to know how to use contrefactuals, how to make contrefactuals and the validity of using contrefactuals specially in world politicvs this is you book. I could say its mostly a very usefull book if you want to understand the purpose, validity and the working of contrefactuals in World politics.
This book also mentions the misuses of contrefactuals, the biais. This book show how low probabilty events can happens , not all participants in a counterfactuals obey logic . There some mentions group work and computer simulations of political inter actions between fictionals nations.
For Academics , university students in history, economics, politics or afficianados of historical methodolody this book is a must.
If you want to know how to use contrefactuals, how to make contrefactuals and the validity of using contrefactuals specially in world politicvs this is you book. I could say its mostly a very usefull book if you want to understand the purpose, validity and the working of contrefactuals in World politics.
This book also mentions the misuses of contrefactuals, the biais. This book show how low probabilty events can happens , not all participants in a counterfactuals obey logic . There some mentions group work and computer simulations of political inter actions between fictionals nations.
For Academics , university students in history, economics, politics or afficianados of historical methodolody this book is a must.
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews