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Progress - Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future
Varje dag översköljs vi av samma budskap: vi är på väg åt fel håll. Det handlar om finansiella krascher, migrationskriser, arbetslöshet, hungersnöd, krig och miljökatastrofer. Det är inte konstigt om känslan är att världen kollapsar.
Men i motsats till vad många tror har mänsklighetens framsteg under de senaste decennierna varit oöverträffade. Oavsett vilken statistik du refererar till är det mesta bättre nu - för nästan alla.
Genom att skärskåda hårda fakta från institutioner som FN, Världsbanken och Världshälsoorganisationen visar Johan Norberg hur långt vi har kommit:
- mänskligheten har gjort större framsteg under de senaste 100 åren än våra första 100 000 år
- fattigdomen har de senaste 50 åren minskat mer än de 500 åren dessförinnan
- 90 procent av världens befolkning har i dag tillgång till rent vatten, jämfört med 50 procent år 1980
Även om många utmaningar kvarstår så presenteras i boken lösningar. För vi kan inte ta fortsatta framsteg för givna om vi inte förstår vad människan har skapat så riskerar vi att kasta bort dem.
Framsteg är en överraskande och upplyftande berättelse om förnyat hopp, som går tvärtemot domedagsprofetiorna.
Men i motsats till vad många tror har mänsklighetens framsteg under de senaste decennierna varit oöverträffade. Oavsett vilken statistik du refererar till är det mesta bättre nu - för nästan alla.
Genom att skärskåda hårda fakta från institutioner som FN, Världsbanken och Världshälsoorganisationen visar Johan Norberg hur långt vi har kommit:
- mänskligheten har gjort större framsteg under de senaste 100 åren än våra första 100 000 år
- fattigdomen har de senaste 50 åren minskat mer än de 500 åren dessförinnan
- 90 procent av världens befolkning har i dag tillgång till rent vatten, jämfört med 50 procent år 1980
Även om många utmaningar kvarstår så presenteras i boken lösningar. För vi kan inte ta fortsatta framsteg för givna om vi inte förstår vad människan har skapat så riskerar vi att kasta bort dem.
Framsteg är en överraskande och upplyftande berättelse om förnyat hopp, som går tvärtemot domedagsprofetiorna.
304 pages, Unknown Binding
First published October 11, 2016
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June 24, 2018
Reasons to Be Cheerful
Johan Norberg's message is simple: Things are much better than you think. So stop worrying and get back to making things even better still. This is a popularisation of the similar but more academic line that the (uncredited) economist Deirdre McCloskey has been promoting for the last decade. While Norberg's emphasis is on technology, and McCloskey's is on the generative ideas for technology, they are at one in a celebration of middle-class living and its prospects.
It had to come didn't it? A movement of factually based optimism. Journalists are paid to dig out things that alarm us. Economists and other social scientists are paid to solve the problems that journalists create. The more complex the problems, the more the further potential for journalistic investigation. It's the downside of the infinite interpretability of narrative. Norberg and McCloskey are making a bid to fill the market gap and stop the downward slide.
There's just room in this complex for a niche-marketing project to re-establish bourgeois calm and get them back to what they do best: running things for the rest of us. The sub-text of Progress is quite clear about that. The progress evident in every realm of human endeavour from sanitation to civil rights has been achieved quite independently of politics. The only things to be avoided like the plague, largely because it is a plague, is war; that and the Green fanatics who don't like GM crops. Restrain the war-lords and the neo-hippie enthusiasts and sane, well-tested liberal values will take care of the rest.
Scientists and entrepreneurs are the source of our well-being. They will continue to feed the world, to keep it clean, literate, and safe. We cannot be complacent however. The underlying enemy, aside from journalists, are "superstition and bureaucracy." These are the hidden forces behind anti-globalisation, the reduction in government-sponsored science, inadequate technical education and the bad-mouthing of hard-working scientists and entrepreneurs.
Sounds like Donald Trump has his international spokesman. Oh, I forgot, Trump's anti-globalisation, anti-science, and anti-education. And McCloskey's transgender status doesn't sit well with Republicans. But Trump does like entrepreneurial types and he's not afraid of a little contradictory policy-making. So he might just take these guys on.
Postscript: there is a very serious reason to question not just the statistics but the moral intention of people like Norberg and McCloskey. They both provide bourgeois propaganda which is meant to hide the existence of a permanent under-culture. See: https://www.goodreads.com/review/show...
Johan Norberg's message is simple: Things are much better than you think. So stop worrying and get back to making things even better still. This is a popularisation of the similar but more academic line that the (uncredited) economist Deirdre McCloskey has been promoting for the last decade. While Norberg's emphasis is on technology, and McCloskey's is on the generative ideas for technology, they are at one in a celebration of middle-class living and its prospects.
It had to come didn't it? A movement of factually based optimism. Journalists are paid to dig out things that alarm us. Economists and other social scientists are paid to solve the problems that journalists create. The more complex the problems, the more the further potential for journalistic investigation. It's the downside of the infinite interpretability of narrative. Norberg and McCloskey are making a bid to fill the market gap and stop the downward slide.
There's just room in this complex for a niche-marketing project to re-establish bourgeois calm and get them back to what they do best: running things for the rest of us. The sub-text of Progress is quite clear about that. The progress evident in every realm of human endeavour from sanitation to civil rights has been achieved quite independently of politics. The only things to be avoided like the plague, largely because it is a plague, is war; that and the Green fanatics who don't like GM crops. Restrain the war-lords and the neo-hippie enthusiasts and sane, well-tested liberal values will take care of the rest.
Scientists and entrepreneurs are the source of our well-being. They will continue to feed the world, to keep it clean, literate, and safe. We cannot be complacent however. The underlying enemy, aside from journalists, are "superstition and bureaucracy." These are the hidden forces behind anti-globalisation, the reduction in government-sponsored science, inadequate technical education and the bad-mouthing of hard-working scientists and entrepreneurs.
Sounds like Donald Trump has his international spokesman. Oh, I forgot, Trump's anti-globalisation, anti-science, and anti-education. And McCloskey's transgender status doesn't sit well with Republicans. But Trump does like entrepreneurial types and he's not afraid of a little contradictory policy-making. So he might just take these guys on.
Postscript: there is a very serious reason to question not just the statistics but the moral intention of people like Norberg and McCloskey. They both provide bourgeois propaganda which is meant to hide the existence of a permanent under-culture. See: https://www.goodreads.com/review/show...
November 1, 2016
According to Johan Norberg those people who were wearing shades because the future was so bright were right. His introduction is called “The Good Old Days Are Now” and his book is an antidote to the daily news because the news is one of the very few things Johan thinks isn’t getting better. That’s because they only report the bad news because the bad news is rare and dramatic, which of course gives us all the idea that terrible things are happening all the time, which of course, they are somewhere on the planet, there’s a lot of people here and a lot of stuff is happening.
PEASE PUDDING AND SAVELOY- WHAT NEXT? IS THE QUESTION
Johan lists nine ways the lot of the human race has vastly improved over the centuries. Let’s take the first one : food.
What was the most important invention of the 20th century? Computers, planes, radio, television maybe? No – nitrogen-based artificial fertilizer, invented by Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch. “Without the Haber-Bosch Process about two-fifths of the world population would not exist at all”.
Now, back in the 1960s ecologists were predicting massive famines in books like The Population Bomb (1968) by Paul Ehrlich (“in the 1970s the world will undergo famines – hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death”) and Famine 1975! by William and Paul Paddock (“in fifteen years the famines will be catastrophic”).
Johan says “yet the exact opposite happened”.
This was because the Green Revolution happened, pioneered by Dr Norman Borlaug, about whom it has been said
He is the first person to save a billion human lives.
Johan’s book is cramful of statistics and I will just quote a few about food –
In 1961 people in 51 countries, including Iran, Pakistan, China and Indonesia, consumed less than 2000 calories per person per day. By 2013 that number had fallen to just one : Zambia…
and
world agricultural prices are now half of what they were in the early 20th century.
And
The UN reported in 1947 that around 50% of the world’s population was chronically malnourished… Today this has declined to around 13%
TIME FOR A EUPHEMISM OR TWO
Okay, let’s talk about poo. Sanitation. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam have reduced “open defecation” by around one third since 1990. As a result of these efforts, global deaths from diarrhea have been reduced from 1.5 million in 1990 to 662,000 in 2012. Between 1990 and 2015 427 million more Africans gained access to clean water.
What’s “open defecation”? Hey, I will leave that to your imagination, along with “flying toilets”.
MORE REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
Let’s talk about life expectancy. “Before 1800 not a single country in the world had a life expectancy higher than 40 years”. Then came the largely successful war against infectious disease – TB, diphtheria, polio, measles and smallpox. And as we recently saw, there was no ebola pandemic. Even death from malaria has halved between 2000 and 2015.
You see where this all is going. Poverty and violence are declining, literacy and “freedom” (meaning liberal democracy) and equality are all going up up up. I was with him all the way in these chapters. Now we finally made it to the 21st century (which when you think is a lot of centuries) it seems that the appropriate response is to grab your coat and get your hat, and leave your worry at the doorstep, and just direct your feet to the sunny side of the street.
The hard sell was the chapter on the environment. Only the day before yesterday the British news reported this:
Global wildlife populations have fallen by 58% since 1970, a report says.
The Living Planet assessment, by the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) and WWF, suggests that if the trend continues that decline could reach two-thirds among vertebrates by 2020.
The figures suggest that animals living in lakes, rivers and wetlands are suffering the biggest losses.
Human activity, including habitat loss, wildlife trade, pollution and climate change contributed to the declines.
And similar jeremiads are issued with conscience-deadening regularity.
But Johan tells us the excellent news of cleaned up air in European cities, unpolluted rivers like the Thames, no more acid rain, and deforestation stopped in the rich countries. Yes, caring for the environment is a luxury rich countries can now afford, while some poor people shoot elephants to gouge out their tusks to sell to other not especially rich people in other countries who believe ivory has magic powers, and rich people in rich countries disapprove of them terribly.
Going back to air pollution, this is one thing which he admits has got much worse –
The number of people breathing unsafe air has risen by more than 600 million since 2000 to a total of almost 1.8 billion.
But even here we can find a silver lining. This industrial pollution is being created because poor countries are getting richer via industrialization and “wealth creation”.
This process in poor countries is a way of dealing with even more acute and dangerous problems, just like the Industrial Revolution in the West increased pollution but solved the urgent problems of early death and poverty.
So Johan says chill, give these countries a few decades and they too will be able to deal with the environment like rich countries can now, because the poor countries in the past 50 years have been able to catch up extremely quickly. Look at China.
I must say that on occasion Johan appears to have been eating some of those funny mushrooms, he becomes so excitable :
In laboratories around the world, tens of thousands of scientists and engineers are trying to revolutionise energy… If just one of them is successful, it will blow our minds and change the world.
I’M ONLY HAPPY WHEN I’M MISERABLE
British people were surveyed in January 2015 – the question was : is the world getting better or worse? 71% said worse. Johan Norberg demonstrates over and over that they’re wrong on every possible level but he knows they won’t change their minds. Things will keep improving and we’ll all still think we’re going down the drain.
Because won’t it be terrible when we don’t have anything left to moan about? No more greenhouse gases, no more climate change, every car electric, free childcare for all, giant pandas roaming the streets, hundreds of them. We’ll be reduced to moaning about not having anything to moan about. According to Johan this will happen around 34 years from now.
January 18, 2018
Human Progress?
Norberg brings up plenty of facts and statistics on a broad canvas as he paints a picture of human progress through time. The book is divided into sections on food, sanitation, life expectancy, poverty, violence, the environment, literacy, freedom, equality as well as the next generation. It is crammed with information about each topic. Using statistics Norberg really makes a strong case for that humanity (overall) drastically has progressed in a positive direction in all of these areas. There is plenty of facts/stats to mull over and many that will fuel your need for trivia. However, he does really make one think about the topics. There is no question that humanity has gone far in its "progress". However, Norberg gets a little bit overenthusiastic at times. On page 202 he writes Mankind is now breaking free from the natural and self-imposed limitations that have always held us down. Humanity has reached escape velocity. I very much disagree with this as every species is restricted within the biosphere. The view is somewhat naive. Basic ecological principles have taught us this principle over and over. Not surprisingly the chapter focused on the environment is a bit naive in its premises. I think that is a challenge we as a species have to truly face this century. Norberg also makes the standard case that the connectivity shaped by the internet has connected a vast portion of humanity its accumulated knowledge. Therefore, we can go forward at a much greater pace in terms of progress. In my experience the connectivity is mostly focused on social connectivity and entertainment rather than knowledge. Regardless, there is plenty of interesting facts in the book: E.g. did you know that global literacy in 1820 was 12% and today it is around 86% (pg 133); in 1900 horses fouled the streets of New York with more than 2.5 million pounds of manure and 60,000 gallons of urine on a daily basis (pg 34) and much much more.
Even though there has been much progress in terms of social norms and standard of living over the last few centuries the future Norberg envisions is one viewed through rose-colored glasses. We need to pay immediate attention to the global changes created by the constant resource use of almost 8 billion human beings on the planet. There is much to think about in this book. Recommended as long as one keeps in mind that the author is very naive in terms of the environmental constraints of our civilization!
Norberg brings up plenty of facts and statistics on a broad canvas as he paints a picture of human progress through time. The book is divided into sections on food, sanitation, life expectancy, poverty, violence, the environment, literacy, freedom, equality as well as the next generation. It is crammed with information about each topic. Using statistics Norberg really makes a strong case for that humanity (overall) drastically has progressed in a positive direction in all of these areas. There is plenty of facts/stats to mull over and many that will fuel your need for trivia. However, he does really make one think about the topics. There is no question that humanity has gone far in its "progress". However, Norberg gets a little bit overenthusiastic at times. On page 202 he writes Mankind is now breaking free from the natural and self-imposed limitations that have always held us down. Humanity has reached escape velocity. I very much disagree with this as every species is restricted within the biosphere. The view is somewhat naive. Basic ecological principles have taught us this principle over and over. Not surprisingly the chapter focused on the environment is a bit naive in its premises. I think that is a challenge we as a species have to truly face this century. Norberg also makes the standard case that the connectivity shaped by the internet has connected a vast portion of humanity its accumulated knowledge. Therefore, we can go forward at a much greater pace in terms of progress. In my experience the connectivity is mostly focused on social connectivity and entertainment rather than knowledge. Regardless, there is plenty of interesting facts in the book: E.g. did you know that global literacy in 1820 was 12% and today it is around 86% (pg 133); in 1900 horses fouled the streets of New York with more than 2.5 million pounds of manure and 60,000 gallons of urine on a daily basis (pg 34) and much much more.
Even though there has been much progress in terms of social norms and standard of living over the last few centuries the future Norberg envisions is one viewed through rose-colored glasses. We need to pay immediate attention to the global changes created by the constant resource use of almost 8 billion human beings on the planet. There is much to think about in this book. Recommended as long as one keeps in mind that the author is very naive in terms of the environmental constraints of our civilization!
January 7, 2019
This book is difficult to rate.
In my view, it warrants two very different reviews.
Review 1: Assuming that Norberg’s intentions are morally innocent, “Progress” must be described as a brilliant, free-flowing, well-supported account of how humankind has managed to improve the world and the way we live with each other in countless ways. Improved sanitation, increased life-expectancy and literacy, enforcement of human rights, poverty reduction (at least in relative terms), etc. etc. From this viewpoint Norberg invites us to participate in a retrospective celebration of an epoch characterized by immense overall progress for humanity as a whole.
Review 2: Recognizing that Norberg’s mission is anything but innocent, the book must be seen in an entirely different light. Norberg is a senior fellow (whatever that is) in the market fundamentalist “think tank” The Cato Institute (that is, a propaganda and lobby organization funded by the Kochs and other super rich people). His mission is to provide an extreme right wing ideology (and social force) with a human face. The thing is: Consumption-driven market liberalization may have served humanity as a whole up until a certain point but now it is becoming increasingly obvious that we need to move in a different direction, fast, if we are to avoid catastrophic climate change, a dramatic loss of biodiversity, uncontrollable migration etc. Norberg’s task is to prevent this realization from happening. It is revealing, for instance, that his chapter on equality fails to even mention the fact that the distribution of both income and wealth - and thus political power - is fast becoming more and more unequal in more or less every developed and developing country in the world. In the US, average life-expectancy has begun to DROP now - this shows us our future if we fail to counter the activities of Norberg and his self-interested ultra wealthy paymasters.
Review 2 justifies a one-star rating (intentions matter!) but I give the book two stars because it - involuntarily - provides us with a reason for optimism: If humanity has been able to travel so far so quickly in recent centuries the way Norberg describes it, maybe we can also find the means and the resolve to fundamentally reinvent ourselves and global society the way we obviously need to do in the decades ahead.
In my view, it warrants two very different reviews.
Review 1: Assuming that Norberg’s intentions are morally innocent, “Progress” must be described as a brilliant, free-flowing, well-supported account of how humankind has managed to improve the world and the way we live with each other in countless ways. Improved sanitation, increased life-expectancy and literacy, enforcement of human rights, poverty reduction (at least in relative terms), etc. etc. From this viewpoint Norberg invites us to participate in a retrospective celebration of an epoch characterized by immense overall progress for humanity as a whole.
Review 2: Recognizing that Norberg’s mission is anything but innocent, the book must be seen in an entirely different light. Norberg is a senior fellow (whatever that is) in the market fundamentalist “think tank” The Cato Institute (that is, a propaganda and lobby organization funded by the Kochs and other super rich people). His mission is to provide an extreme right wing ideology (and social force) with a human face. The thing is: Consumption-driven market liberalization may have served humanity as a whole up until a certain point but now it is becoming increasingly obvious that we need to move in a different direction, fast, if we are to avoid catastrophic climate change, a dramatic loss of biodiversity, uncontrollable migration etc. Norberg’s task is to prevent this realization from happening. It is revealing, for instance, that his chapter on equality fails to even mention the fact that the distribution of both income and wealth - and thus political power - is fast becoming more and more unequal in more or less every developed and developing country in the world. In the US, average life-expectancy has begun to DROP now - this shows us our future if we fail to counter the activities of Norberg and his self-interested ultra wealthy paymasters.
Review 2 justifies a one-star rating (intentions matter!) but I give the book two stars because it - involuntarily - provides us with a reason for optimism: If humanity has been able to travel so far so quickly in recent centuries the way Norberg describes it, maybe we can also find the means and the resolve to fundamentally reinvent ourselves and global society the way we obviously need to do in the decades ahead.
November 23, 2016
Johan Norberg, Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future (London, OneWorld, 2016).
“Nothing is more responsible for the good old days,” wrote Franklin Pierce Adams, “than a bad memory.” The good old days, in other words, weren’t so good. Indeed, if Johan Norberg is to be believed, the good old days are right now.
Drawing on a variety of social science data, Norberg points to ten ways the world has progressed over the last three centuries:
Food is plentiful and cheap.
Clean water and good sanitation are increasingly available.
Life expectancy is longer.
Poverty has fallen dramatically.
War and violence blight fewer lives.
Increasing wealth has benefited the environment.
Literacy is widespread.
People are increasingly free of arbitrary authority.
Equality is increasingly experienced and demanded.
None of this denies specific counterexamples, of course. Hunger, pollution, terrorism, and poverty are facts of life for many throughout the world. Still, in historical perspective as well as in absolute terms, these ills are on the decline.
Take extreme poverty, for example. Norberg writes:
The next time you and your friends debate income inequality, keep that statistic in mind. Yes, there is income inequality in the world, but the floor of that inequality is no longer extreme poverty for the vast majority of the world’s population.
That’s good news, right? Of course it is! And it’s a reason—along with other improvements in the material conditions of humanity—to give thanks at this time of year.
_____
P.S. If you found my review helpful, please vote “Yes” on my Amazon.com review page.
“Nothing is more responsible for the good old days,” wrote Franklin Pierce Adams, “than a bad memory.” The good old days, in other words, weren’t so good. Indeed, if Johan Norberg is to be believed, the good old days are right now.
Drawing on a variety of social science data, Norberg points to ten ways the world has progressed over the last three centuries:
Food is plentiful and cheap.
Clean water and good sanitation are increasingly available.
Life expectancy is longer.
Poverty has fallen dramatically.
War and violence blight fewer lives.
Increasing wealth has benefited the environment.
Literacy is widespread.
People are increasingly free of arbitrary authority.
Equality is increasingly experienced and demanded.
None of this denies specific counterexamples, of course. Hunger, pollution, terrorism, and poverty are facts of life for many throughout the world. Still, in historical perspective as well as in absolute terms, these ills are on the decline.
Take extreme poverty, for example. Norberg writes:
…In 1981, fifty-four per cent of the world lived in extreme poverty, according to the World Bank. This already marks an historic achievement. According to an ambitious attempt to measure poverty over the long run, with a $2 a day threshold for extreme poverty, adjusted for purchasing power in 1985, ninety-four per cent of the world’s population lived in extreme population in 1820, eighty-two per cent in 1910 and seventy-two percent in 1950.
But in the last few decades things have really begun to change. Between 1981 and 2015 the proportion of low- and middle-income countries suffering from extreme poverty was reduced from fifty-four percent to twelve per cent….
…By all our best estimates, global poverty has been reduced by more than one percentage point annually for three decades.
The next time you and your friends debate income inequality, keep that statistic in mind. Yes, there is income inequality in the world, but the floor of that inequality is no longer extreme poverty for the vast majority of the world’s population.
That’s good news, right? Of course it is! And it’s a reason—along with other improvements in the material conditions of humanity—to give thanks at this time of year.
_____
P.S. If you found my review helpful, please vote “Yes” on my Amazon.com review page.
September 2, 2017
Doom and gloom is everywhere at the moment - ask any politician, on the right or the left. Everything is getting worse day by day.
Except this is nonsense. With a barrage of statistics on several key metrics - food, sanitation, life expectancy, poverty, violence, and literacy - Johan Norberg proves that in practical terms, there is no better time to be alive than now. Except possibly the future. There cannot be a timelier corrective to the narrative we usually feed to ourselves.
This is not a flawless books. Norberg is naturally selective with evidence - this is more of a polemic than a balanced argument. He is too quick to impose a whiggish, progressive narrative and to deduce causation from correlation. There were occasional factual inaccuracies about history which cast doubt on some of his research.
Some of the other topics he picks for examination are rather more controversial. Take the chapter on the environment. Firstly, this is far from being a one-dimensional, measurable quantity. Although he notes enormous progress in things like air quality, he acknowledges that climate change is still a looming issue. The chapter on 'freedom' is also rather vague, focusing mostly on the abolition of slavery and the growth of democracy, and on 'equality' his discussion is limited to the civil liberties of ethnic minorities, women, and gay people, not talking at all about economic inequality, one of the most pressing subjects of our time, and only discussed to a limited extent in the chapter on poverty.
Finally, a much larger problem. Although he does, in the epilogue, go into psychology to explain why people are so pessimistic and ignorant, he never really acknowledges that there might be a deeper-seated problem. Take this quote from the introduction:
The fact is, our threshold for what we consider acceptable rises as we get richer. But really, the problem is that increase in material goods will never satisfy us. Moreover, this lack of satisfaction is what drives our material progress in the first place.
Despite this, I don't doubt that Norberg's central thesis is correct. This book provides a more factual basis than our prejudices and experience for what the world is actually like, and as such deserves to be widely read. It's not the end of the story, but it should prove better grounds for discussion.
Except this is nonsense. With a barrage of statistics on several key metrics - food, sanitation, life expectancy, poverty, violence, and literacy - Johan Norberg proves that in practical terms, there is no better time to be alive than now. Except possibly the future. There cannot be a timelier corrective to the narrative we usually feed to ourselves.
This is not a flawless books. Norberg is naturally selective with evidence - this is more of a polemic than a balanced argument. He is too quick to impose a whiggish, progressive narrative and to deduce causation from correlation. There were occasional factual inaccuracies about history which cast doubt on some of his research.
Some of the other topics he picks for examination are rather more controversial. Take the chapter on the environment. Firstly, this is far from being a one-dimensional, measurable quantity. Although he notes enormous progress in things like air quality, he acknowledges that climate change is still a looming issue. The chapter on 'freedom' is also rather vague, focusing mostly on the abolition of slavery and the growth of democracy, and on 'equality' his discussion is limited to the civil liberties of ethnic minorities, women, and gay people, not talking at all about economic inequality, one of the most pressing subjects of our time, and only discussed to a limited extent in the chapter on poverty.
Finally, a much larger problem. Although he does, in the epilogue, go into psychology to explain why people are so pessimistic and ignorant, he never really acknowledges that there might be a deeper-seated problem. Take this quote from the introduction:
In 1955, thirteen per cent of the Swedish public thought that there were 'intolerable conditions' in society. After half a century of expanded human liberties, rising incomes, reduction in poverty and improved health care, more than half of all Swedes thought so.
The fact is, our threshold for what we consider acceptable rises as we get richer. But really, the problem is that increase in material goods will never satisfy us. Moreover, this lack of satisfaction is what drives our material progress in the first place.
Despite this, I don't doubt that Norberg's central thesis is correct. This book provides a more factual basis than our prejudices and experience for what the world is actually like, and as such deserves to be widely read. It's not the end of the story, but it should prove better grounds for discussion.
November 19, 2023
Parts I found particularly useful:
Agriculture innovation
- Page 14: In the early 20th century, the chemists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch carried out thousands of experiments which resulted in the development of artificial fertilizer, a hugely important agricultural innovation that resulted in an increase in food.
- Pages 18 and 23: After thousands of crossings of wheat, Norman Borlaugh developed a high-yield hybrid that was parasite resistant and wasn't sensitive to daylight hours so it could be grown in varying climates. Importantly, it was a dwarf variety, since tall wheat expended a lot of energy growing inedible stalks and also collapsed when it grew too quickly. Borlaugh also showed farmers how modern irrigation and artificial fertilizer increased yields. Borlaugh helped farmers in Mexico, Pakistan and India as well as Africa to significantly increase yields. Inspired by Borlaugh's innovation work, colleagues of Borlaugh developed high-yield rice varieties that quickly spread around Asia. It is estimated that Norman Borlaugh, through his unique innovation competencies, saved a billion human lives.
Energy innovation
- Page 125: Biofuels made from algae can produce 30 times more energy per acre than traditional ethanol.
- Page 126: Using graphene, a thin and flexible material, could reduce costs of solar cells even more by replacing the expensive indium.
Healthcare innovation
- Page 49: It took time before health personnel were convinced to wash their hands and sterilize equipment. But when it happened, it had an amazing effect on maternal death.
- Page 50: Before the Scottish biologist Alexander Flemming in 1928 discovered the world's first antibiotic, a bacteria killer which led to penicillin, hospitals were full of people dying from tiny cuts and infections.
- Page 52: In Africa, the part of the population sleeping under mosquito nets has increased significantly - strongly reducing malaria mortality among children.
- Page 54: As a result of basic hygiene, access to safe water and attendance by health personnel, the risk of dying while giving birth was reduced significantly in subsaharan Africa and South Asia.
- Page 56: When parents learn that their children are less likely to die young, they stop having as many babies.
- Page 166: People, who are in high stress, need rigid, predictable rules. Because they are in danger, they need to be sure what is going to happen.
Government innovation
- Page 21: In Vietnam, opening up the rice market and reducing agricultural taxes reduced the number of people suffering from malnutrition by more than 20 million people.
- Pages 26 and 150: Democracy is one of the best weapons against famine. There has never been a famine in a democracy. Even poor democracies like India and Botswana have avoided starvation despite having a poorer food supply than many countries where disaster has struck. Between 1900 and 2000, the share of the world population living in democracies increased from 0% to 58%.
- Page 36: In London, the major push for a modern sewage system came after "the great stink" in 1858, when hot weather exacerbated the smell from the Thames and created a stench so bad that the curtains of the houses of parliament had to be soaked in lime chloride.
- Page 68-69: The key to Asia's development was its integration into the global economy. China and India opened their economies in 1979 and 1991 respectively. More openness to trade and investment as well as better transport and communication technologies made it possible for low- and middle-income countries to prosper. The production of simple but labour intensive products such as clothes, toys and electronics led to a constant upgrading of skills and production, so that they became better at more qualified, technology-intensive production and eventually knowledge intensive production such as finance, law, PR, research and education.
- Page 113: Many of the most interesting areas with the most biological diversity are being protected. Between 1990 and 2013, protected areas nearly doubled from 8.5% to 14.3% of the world's total land area.
- Page 114: The wealthier a country is, the more it has done to clean up the environment and make it safe for humanity.
- Page 120: The biggest problems in the world are still problems of poverty, polluted water and air. What is important is that our climate policies do not force too many constraints and costs, so we hurt our ability to create better technologies and bring power to the world's poor.
- Page 135-136: Parents are better placed than governments to decide on their children's education. Research from Asia and Africa shows that when parents find a school that is better, they move their children there.
- Page 177: In the year 1900, women had the right to vote only in New Zealand. At the start of 2015, women were excluded from the political process only in Saudi Arabia and the Vatican.
Other remarkable research results mentioned in the book
- Page 91: In the 14th and 15th centuries, more than 25% of English aristocrats faced a violent death - partly because they were armed and ready to fight for their honor.
- Page 92: More than 10% of European regents were murdered in office. A third of the killers took over the throne themselves.
- Page 94: World War 2 is the bloodiest war in history. 55 million people, i.e. 2% of the world population, died during the war.
- Page 95: The Lushan revolt against the Chinese dynasty in 756 - 763 CE is one of the worst wars ever. 13 million people, i.e. 5% of the world population, died during the war.
- Page 102: Since 2000, 400 people have died from terrorism in OECD countries per year - mostly in Turkey and Israel. 10 times more people die from falling down the stairs. In general, violent campaigns are great failures. Since 1968, no terrorist group managed to conquer a state. The typical terrorist organization survives only 8 years.
- Page 112: From 2010 to 2060, land use for agriculture will decline by 0.2% per year.
- Page 115: A modern car in motion emits less pollution than a 1970s car did in the parking lot, turned off, due to gasoline vapour leakage.
- Page 117: Since 2000, the number of people breathing unsafe air has risen from 600 million to 1.8 billion.
- Pages 162 and 170: History is one long record of hatred against peoples that were considered inferior. 3 examples: 1. When Spain emerged as a unified Christian country in 1492, the first thing the rulers did was to expel all Jews who refused to convert. 2. There were hundreds of deadly riots against Catholics in England in the 17th and 18th centuries. 3. The USA has experienced deadly riots against almost every ethnic and religious minority - including Catholics, Jews, Protestant sects, Germans, Italians and Irish. In the early 1960s, almost half of white Americans said they would move out if a black family moved in next door. Today, almost no one agrees.
- Page 180: In Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Morocco, 80% to 90% agree or mostly agree with the statement "A wife must always obey her husband."
- Page 183: Many cultures condemned all homosexual acts, and the Christian tradition has been remarkably intolerant - often based on passages from the bible where they are punished with death. In 1973, the American psychiatric organization removed homosexuality from its list of mental disorders.
- Page 192: In 1851, 28% of children aged between 10 and 14 in England and Wales were working. Child labour was seen as a form of education and as a way of preventing idleness. Technological change, rising wages and universal education meant that less children were needed by their parents to work. As India's economy was opened in 1991, there was a rapid fall in child labour.
Agriculture innovation
- Page 14: In the early 20th century, the chemists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch carried out thousands of experiments which resulted in the development of artificial fertilizer, a hugely important agricultural innovation that resulted in an increase in food.
- Pages 18 and 23: After thousands of crossings of wheat, Norman Borlaugh developed a high-yield hybrid that was parasite resistant and wasn't sensitive to daylight hours so it could be grown in varying climates. Importantly, it was a dwarf variety, since tall wheat expended a lot of energy growing inedible stalks and also collapsed when it grew too quickly. Borlaugh also showed farmers how modern irrigation and artificial fertilizer increased yields. Borlaugh helped farmers in Mexico, Pakistan and India as well as Africa to significantly increase yields. Inspired by Borlaugh's innovation work, colleagues of Borlaugh developed high-yield rice varieties that quickly spread around Asia. It is estimated that Norman Borlaugh, through his unique innovation competencies, saved a billion human lives.
Energy innovation
- Page 125: Biofuels made from algae can produce 30 times more energy per acre than traditional ethanol.
- Page 126: Using graphene, a thin and flexible material, could reduce costs of solar cells even more by replacing the expensive indium.
Healthcare innovation
- Page 49: It took time before health personnel were convinced to wash their hands and sterilize equipment. But when it happened, it had an amazing effect on maternal death.
- Page 50: Before the Scottish biologist Alexander Flemming in 1928 discovered the world's first antibiotic, a bacteria killer which led to penicillin, hospitals were full of people dying from tiny cuts and infections.
- Page 52: In Africa, the part of the population sleeping under mosquito nets has increased significantly - strongly reducing malaria mortality among children.
- Page 54: As a result of basic hygiene, access to safe water and attendance by health personnel, the risk of dying while giving birth was reduced significantly in subsaharan Africa and South Asia.
- Page 56: When parents learn that their children are less likely to die young, they stop having as many babies.
- Page 166: People, who are in high stress, need rigid, predictable rules. Because they are in danger, they need to be sure what is going to happen.
Government innovation
- Page 21: In Vietnam, opening up the rice market and reducing agricultural taxes reduced the number of people suffering from malnutrition by more than 20 million people.
- Pages 26 and 150: Democracy is one of the best weapons against famine. There has never been a famine in a democracy. Even poor democracies like India and Botswana have avoided starvation despite having a poorer food supply than many countries where disaster has struck. Between 1900 and 2000, the share of the world population living in democracies increased from 0% to 58%.
- Page 36: In London, the major push for a modern sewage system came after "the great stink" in 1858, when hot weather exacerbated the smell from the Thames and created a stench so bad that the curtains of the houses of parliament had to be soaked in lime chloride.
- Page 68-69: The key to Asia's development was its integration into the global economy. China and India opened their economies in 1979 and 1991 respectively. More openness to trade and investment as well as better transport and communication technologies made it possible for low- and middle-income countries to prosper. The production of simple but labour intensive products such as clothes, toys and electronics led to a constant upgrading of skills and production, so that they became better at more qualified, technology-intensive production and eventually knowledge intensive production such as finance, law, PR, research and education.
- Page 113: Many of the most interesting areas with the most biological diversity are being protected. Between 1990 and 2013, protected areas nearly doubled from 8.5% to 14.3% of the world's total land area.
- Page 114: The wealthier a country is, the more it has done to clean up the environment and make it safe for humanity.
- Page 120: The biggest problems in the world are still problems of poverty, polluted water and air. What is important is that our climate policies do not force too many constraints and costs, so we hurt our ability to create better technologies and bring power to the world's poor.
- Page 135-136: Parents are better placed than governments to decide on their children's education. Research from Asia and Africa shows that when parents find a school that is better, they move their children there.
- Page 177: In the year 1900, women had the right to vote only in New Zealand. At the start of 2015, women were excluded from the political process only in Saudi Arabia and the Vatican.
Other remarkable research results mentioned in the book
- Page 91: In the 14th and 15th centuries, more than 25% of English aristocrats faced a violent death - partly because they were armed and ready to fight for their honor.
- Page 92: More than 10% of European regents were murdered in office. A third of the killers took over the throne themselves.
- Page 94: World War 2 is the bloodiest war in history. 55 million people, i.e. 2% of the world population, died during the war.
- Page 95: The Lushan revolt against the Chinese dynasty in 756 - 763 CE is one of the worst wars ever. 13 million people, i.e. 5% of the world population, died during the war.
- Page 102: Since 2000, 400 people have died from terrorism in OECD countries per year - mostly in Turkey and Israel. 10 times more people die from falling down the stairs. In general, violent campaigns are great failures. Since 1968, no terrorist group managed to conquer a state. The typical terrorist organization survives only 8 years.
- Page 112: From 2010 to 2060, land use for agriculture will decline by 0.2% per year.
- Page 115: A modern car in motion emits less pollution than a 1970s car did in the parking lot, turned off, due to gasoline vapour leakage.
- Page 117: Since 2000, the number of people breathing unsafe air has risen from 600 million to 1.8 billion.
- Pages 162 and 170: History is one long record of hatred against peoples that were considered inferior. 3 examples: 1. When Spain emerged as a unified Christian country in 1492, the first thing the rulers did was to expel all Jews who refused to convert. 2. There were hundreds of deadly riots against Catholics in England in the 17th and 18th centuries. 3. The USA has experienced deadly riots against almost every ethnic and religious minority - including Catholics, Jews, Protestant sects, Germans, Italians and Irish. In the early 1960s, almost half of white Americans said they would move out if a black family moved in next door. Today, almost no one agrees.
- Page 180: In Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Morocco, 80% to 90% agree or mostly agree with the statement "A wife must always obey her husband."
- Page 183: Many cultures condemned all homosexual acts, and the Christian tradition has been remarkably intolerant - often based on passages from the bible where they are punished with death. In 1973, the American psychiatric organization removed homosexuality from its list of mental disorders.
- Page 192: In 1851, 28% of children aged between 10 and 14 in England and Wales were working. Child labour was seen as a form of education and as a way of preventing idleness. Technological change, rising wages and universal education meant that less children were needed by their parents to work. As India's economy was opened in 1991, there was a rapid fall in child labour.
December 31, 2016
It is very interesting that most people don't know how much improvement has been made around the world. Only 10% of British people think that poverty has fallen worldwide and more than half think it has doubled. We're getting it wrong more than chance would predict, which means that many of us have inaccurate beliefs based on misleading information. The truth is that 200 years ago people in Europe were poorer than sub-Saharan Africans are now, but extreme poverty was eliminated in Europe by the 1950s. 9 out of 10 Chinese people lived in extreme poverty in 1981; now that number is down to 1 in 10.
Why are we getting it so wrong? Partly it's a human tendency to view the past through rosy glasses. Norberg tells a story of two journalists, Berg and Karlsson, who visited a remote Indian village in 1977. The villagers were so poor that children worked all day in the fields; they couldn't name the country they lived in; they'd never seen a camera. Berg and Karlsson took a photo of the hands of a young girl, Satto, gnarled and twisted before her time by long days of strenuous field work. In the 1990s they visited again, Satto complained to them that life was so much harder now, even though the farm now had a tractor and the children went to school. She thought she had spent her childhood playing and could barely believe the visitors when they produced their notes and photographs showing that she had been worked to the bone as a child. In 2010, they returned again, the village had an internet connection, Satto's grand-daughter was training to become a computer technician, and Satto was complaining about how much better life was back in the 90s!
Our news focusses on the disasters and tragedies instead of the good stuff. You never see the headline 'Famine in Europe avoided again this year!' even though Europeans regularly starved to death before 20th century revolutions in agriculture. And of course, we all like to complain about problems because it makes us look like we care. You have to be a cold-hearted monster to say cheerfully, 'Yes, yes, the crisis in Syria is terrible but look on the bright side: the death toll's not a patch on the An Lushan Revolt of 756AD'.
The question of why we're all so wrong is only addressed quickly at the end. Most of the book is given over to a solidly optimistic tale of how good everything is. The chapter on the fall of violence references Steven Pinker's The Better Angels of Our Nature: A History of Violence and Humanity, which I can also recommend as a very thorough and indepth work of statistics and hope. Other chapters include food (much better and more plentiful than it used to be), sanitation (very much improved since germ theory), literacy (going up everywhere where it's not already maxed out). The chapter on equality is also very positive: women's rights, gay rights, children's rights, civil rights are all going up worldwide. I notice that 'worker's rights' are not addressed in this chapter, but that's sort of covered by the chapter on freedom which describes the very encouraging reduction in slavery over the last couple of centuries.
The chapter on environment was the weakest, I thought. Global warming is addressed briefly, and Norberg acknowledges that it could be a very big problem, but then goes on to discuss the various improvements in efficiency which mean we use less fossil fuels and to write about various promising new technologies which could provide greener, more powerful energy sources. I have to admit that I find these stories fascinating and exciting: safe nuclear power, solar power plants in space, magical materials like 2-dimensional graphene! It makes me excited to see what the future will bring. But I've read enough from global warming alarmists to see that Norberg doesn't even begin to address their fears.
Most of the discussion of environmental improvements ignores global warming and focuses on the big wins that we've made. Air pollution in London used to be so bad that people couldn't see through the coal smoke and choked to death in their homes. The Thames was once declared officially dead because no life could survive in it's poisonous sludge. But once the UK solved the problems of poverty it started to fix the environmental problems caused by prosperity. And as Indira Ghandi says: 'Are not poverty and need the greatest polluters? How can we speak to those who live in villages and in slums about keeping the oceans, the rivers and the air-clean when their own lives are contaminated at the source? The environment cannot be improved in conditions of poverty'.
Why are we getting it so wrong? Partly it's a human tendency to view the past through rosy glasses. Norberg tells a story of two journalists, Berg and Karlsson, who visited a remote Indian village in 1977. The villagers were so poor that children worked all day in the fields; they couldn't name the country they lived in; they'd never seen a camera. Berg and Karlsson took a photo of the hands of a young girl, Satto, gnarled and twisted before her time by long days of strenuous field work. In the 1990s they visited again, Satto complained to them that life was so much harder now, even though the farm now had a tractor and the children went to school. She thought she had spent her childhood playing and could barely believe the visitors when they produced their notes and photographs showing that she had been worked to the bone as a child. In 2010, they returned again, the village had an internet connection, Satto's grand-daughter was training to become a computer technician, and Satto was complaining about how much better life was back in the 90s!
Our news focusses on the disasters and tragedies instead of the good stuff. You never see the headline 'Famine in Europe avoided again this year!' even though Europeans regularly starved to death before 20th century revolutions in agriculture. And of course, we all like to complain about problems because it makes us look like we care. You have to be a cold-hearted monster to say cheerfully, 'Yes, yes, the crisis in Syria is terrible but look on the bright side: the death toll's not a patch on the An Lushan Revolt of 756AD'.
The question of why we're all so wrong is only addressed quickly at the end. Most of the book is given over to a solidly optimistic tale of how good everything is. The chapter on the fall of violence references Steven Pinker's The Better Angels of Our Nature: A History of Violence and Humanity, which I can also recommend as a very thorough and indepth work of statistics and hope. Other chapters include food (much better and more plentiful than it used to be), sanitation (very much improved since germ theory), literacy (going up everywhere where it's not already maxed out). The chapter on equality is also very positive: women's rights, gay rights, children's rights, civil rights are all going up worldwide. I notice that 'worker's rights' are not addressed in this chapter, but that's sort of covered by the chapter on freedom which describes the very encouraging reduction in slavery over the last couple of centuries.
The chapter on environment was the weakest, I thought. Global warming is addressed briefly, and Norberg acknowledges that it could be a very big problem, but then goes on to discuss the various improvements in efficiency which mean we use less fossil fuels and to write about various promising new technologies which could provide greener, more powerful energy sources. I have to admit that I find these stories fascinating and exciting: safe nuclear power, solar power plants in space, magical materials like 2-dimensional graphene! It makes me excited to see what the future will bring. But I've read enough from global warming alarmists to see that Norberg doesn't even begin to address their fears.
Most of the discussion of environmental improvements ignores global warming and focuses on the big wins that we've made. Air pollution in London used to be so bad that people couldn't see through the coal smoke and choked to death in their homes. The Thames was once declared officially dead because no life could survive in it's poisonous sludge. But once the UK solved the problems of poverty it started to fix the environmental problems caused by prosperity. And as Indira Ghandi says: 'Are not poverty and need the greatest polluters? How can we speak to those who live in villages and in slums about keeping the oceans, the rivers and the air-clean when their own lives are contaminated at the source? The environment cannot be improved in conditions of poverty'.
April 20, 2021
Progress – Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future (2016) by Johan Norberg is an excellent, short summary of recent history that looks at how much better life has become for many more people as the world’s population has grown, lives longer and is richer since the Industrial Revolution. It summarises similar facts to Steven Pinker’s Enlightenment Now and The Rational Optimist by Matt Ridley, Factfulness by Hans Rosling and Your World, Better by Charles Kenny. The book makes a good summary of the work started by the economist Julian Simon in cataloguing how the world has changed in recent history.
Norberg uses a lot of statistics like those from the excellent Our World in Data site hosted by Oxford University. The book is broken up into 10 Chapters. These look at Food, Sanitation, Life Expectancy, Poverty, Violence, The environment, Literacy, Freedom, Equality and the next Generation.
The section on food looks at how for most of human history there were regular famines. Incredible statistics are shown about how in 1950 50% of the world regularly suffered from undernourishment while today it’s shrunk to 10%. There are many descriptions of famines of the past in Europe and around the world.
The chapter on Sanitation describes how clean water was a rarity for most of humanity for almost all of history and how children would frequently die from waterborne diseases. All this leads to the massive increase in life expectancy that has happened across the world in the last 150 years or so which is described in the next chapter.
The decline of poverty, from almost all of humanity to around 10% in 2015 is amazing. Norberg looks in detail at the Industrial revolution and how between 1820 and 1850 real earnings in England rose by almost 100% and points out that previously a doubling of real incomes had taken 2000 years.
The chapter on violence shows how violence has declined despite the horrific global wars of the Twentieth Century. In the chapter on The Environment the change from Industrial towns having terrible pollution, such as London’s ‘Pea Soup’ fogs that would kill thousands of people to having air as clean as in the Middle Ages today. Or how in Pittsburgh the lights had to be kept on during the day until about 1970 because the pollution was so bad. Norberg points out that people who are not starving and are better off, say on about $5000 per year will pay to reduce airborne pollution.
The chapter on Literacy then looks at how we have gone from societies where almost everyone is illiterate to societies where almost everyone can read and write. The chapter on Freedom looks at how democracy has spread around the world, particularly since the end of colonialism and the fall of the Soviet Union.
Norberg then looks at how Equality for women has gone from being nowhere 200 years ago to today with women having many, many more rights and being free of ‘legal’ rape from their husbands. The vast improvement in gay rights is also described. As is the change in approval for inter racial marriage from a small minority to a vast majority in democracies.
Finally Norberg describes how it is very likely, if merely that trends continue that the world will be even better off in the future. He talks about visiting people in Vietnam and how their lives have improved in the past decades. He also points out that when asked about global trends people do worse than random because they think the world is getting worse. He points out that news describes calamities but ignores the fact that every day people have been getting a bit richer across the planet.
The data that Norberg puts forward is vehemently opposed by some people on the Left. There are plenty of left wing economists like Noah Smith or Paul Krugman who are quite happy with his fact based approach but some people seem to see it as an affront.
Progress is an excellent short book that clearly and succinctly describes the state of the humanity. It’s definitely worth a read.
Norberg uses a lot of statistics like those from the excellent Our World in Data site hosted by Oxford University. The book is broken up into 10 Chapters. These look at Food, Sanitation, Life Expectancy, Poverty, Violence, The environment, Literacy, Freedom, Equality and the next Generation.
The section on food looks at how for most of human history there were regular famines. Incredible statistics are shown about how in 1950 50% of the world regularly suffered from undernourishment while today it’s shrunk to 10%. There are many descriptions of famines of the past in Europe and around the world.
The chapter on Sanitation describes how clean water was a rarity for most of humanity for almost all of history and how children would frequently die from waterborne diseases. All this leads to the massive increase in life expectancy that has happened across the world in the last 150 years or so which is described in the next chapter.
The decline of poverty, from almost all of humanity to around 10% in 2015 is amazing. Norberg looks in detail at the Industrial revolution and how between 1820 and 1850 real earnings in England rose by almost 100% and points out that previously a doubling of real incomes had taken 2000 years.
The chapter on violence shows how violence has declined despite the horrific global wars of the Twentieth Century. In the chapter on The Environment the change from Industrial towns having terrible pollution, such as London’s ‘Pea Soup’ fogs that would kill thousands of people to having air as clean as in the Middle Ages today. Or how in Pittsburgh the lights had to be kept on during the day until about 1970 because the pollution was so bad. Norberg points out that people who are not starving and are better off, say on about $5000 per year will pay to reduce airborne pollution.
The chapter on Literacy then looks at how we have gone from societies where almost everyone is illiterate to societies where almost everyone can read and write. The chapter on Freedom looks at how democracy has spread around the world, particularly since the end of colonialism and the fall of the Soviet Union.
Norberg then looks at how Equality for women has gone from being nowhere 200 years ago to today with women having many, many more rights and being free of ‘legal’ rape from their husbands. The vast improvement in gay rights is also described. As is the change in approval for inter racial marriage from a small minority to a vast majority in democracies.
Finally Norberg describes how it is very likely, if merely that trends continue that the world will be even better off in the future. He talks about visiting people in Vietnam and how their lives have improved in the past decades. He also points out that when asked about global trends people do worse than random because they think the world is getting worse. He points out that news describes calamities but ignores the fact that every day people have been getting a bit richer across the planet.
The data that Norberg puts forward is vehemently opposed by some people on the Left. There are plenty of left wing economists like Noah Smith or Paul Krugman who are quite happy with his fact based approach but some people seem to see it as an affront.
Progress is an excellent short book that clearly and succinctly describes the state of the humanity. It’s definitely worth a read.
September 5, 2016
Media is the immune system of society. It seeks out possible threats and helps channel resources into dealing with them. But just like the biological immune system, it can go into overdrive and start hurting the thing it's supposed to protect. In today's attention economy, the news are distorted towards negative and outrageous. If people in a democratic country use no other sources of information to base their decisions on, it can lead to overreactive and harmful policies. Calls for "strong leaders" and radical solutions are typical examples of this kind of social hypersensitivity.
In "Progress", Johan Norberg lays out the big picture that you need to keep in mind to make sense of facts presented in media.
Terrorism is a good example. It is used as a justification for policies against personal freedom and as an excuse to blame groups of people for the actions of a few. But to put the terrorist threat in perspective, in OECD countries, ten times as many people die falling down stairs than in terrorist attacks. So if we're sacrificing civil liberties and the way we treat other people because of terrorism, we're selling ourselves too cheap.
Same goes for blaming pharmaceutical companies for declining public health (it's not declining!), criticising economic advancement for rising pollution (not rising!) etc. Norberg's book is like a summary of all the positive headlines that should be published every day to give a realistic view of the world. People need to realise that right now news media is describing the few, not the many. Focused effort is sufficient to solve our problems, there's no need for a complete overhaul of the way we live. No need for a revolution, we're doing just fine!
The book is brilliantly written: enough stats and references for analytical people; enough stories and surprising examples for casual readers. It also works as a rational self-help book, as it leaves a strong impression of how stupid it would be to die from something like reckless driving or lack of physical activity, at the time when we're making so much progress in the length and quality of human life. Read if for yourself. Read it for a healthy democracy.
In "Progress", Johan Norberg lays out the big picture that you need to keep in mind to make sense of facts presented in media.
Terrorism is a good example. It is used as a justification for policies against personal freedom and as an excuse to blame groups of people for the actions of a few. But to put the terrorist threat in perspective, in OECD countries, ten times as many people die falling down stairs than in terrorist attacks. So if we're sacrificing civil liberties and the way we treat other people because of terrorism, we're selling ourselves too cheap.
Same goes for blaming pharmaceutical companies for declining public health (it's not declining!), criticising economic advancement for rising pollution (not rising!) etc. Norberg's book is like a summary of all the positive headlines that should be published every day to give a realistic view of the world. People need to realise that right now news media is describing the few, not the many. Focused effort is sufficient to solve our problems, there's no need for a complete overhaul of the way we live. No need for a revolution, we're doing just fine!
The book is brilliantly written: enough stats and references for analytical people; enough stories and surprising examples for casual readers. It also works as a rational self-help book, as it leaves a strong impression of how stupid it would be to die from something like reckless driving or lack of physical activity, at the time when we're making so much progress in the length and quality of human life. Read if for yourself. Read it for a healthy democracy.
May 17, 2020
Probabil cea mai idioată carte din câte am citit pe acest subiect. Adică, poate la 25 de ani aș fi înghițit fără probleme toate argumentele pentru progres, globalizare și piață liberă explicate de Norberg. Dar deja dacă ai un pic habar cum arată lumea și ai mai și făcut cornete din niște cărți serioase, chestia asta pe care a scris-o acest domn e comedie pură. Dar vreau să o recomand o dată pentru a evidenția că, frate, așa nu trebuie să arate o carte, adică nu te prezinți în fața oamenilor cu așa ceva dacă te respecți, apoi pentru că mi-a întărit convingerea că viziunea mea despre lume s-a schimbat în bine. Și am citit cartea asta în weekend (lăsând pentru câteva ore la o parte ”Un cal intră într-un bar” a lui David Grossman), pentru că permanent încerc să-mi provoc convingerile, să le contrazic, să caut argumente solide împotriva lor. Din păcate, n-a fost cazul cu această carte, pe care am demontat-o într-o jumătate de oră, sâmbătă seara, pe hârtie, capitol cu capitol. Dacă vreți să ascultați demonstrația, va fi disponibilă începând de duminică seară, la podcastul Vocea nației. Ideea autorului e simplă: că omenirea trăiește vremuri cum n-au mai fost și datorăm bogăția asta infinită de azi și speranța de viață și educația și echitatea, egalitatea de șanse și confortul și chiar aerul curat (da, e incredibil tipul, el crede că stăm bine și pe mediu, pe astea, într-o carte scrisă în 2016, ca să fie clar) globalizării și democrației și… știți placa libertarienilor. Ideea e că-i mișto ca bogații să-i exploateze pe săraci, pentru că, la un anumit moment, bogăția celor puțini se revarsă și asupra săracilor, care, iată, spune autorul, o duc senzațional. La fel, cică după un anumit punct al bogăției, statele devin conștiente și că trebuie să aibă grijă de mediu. Da, și nu mai aruncă chiștoace pe stradă… Sigur, toate cifrele sunt împotriva autorului, în toate domeniile, dar asta nu pare să-l încurce pe tip. V-am spus, o carte amuzantă, până la urmă, în prostia ei.
May 14, 2017
It’s hard to be an optimist these days. Not because the facts don’t back it up, but because there’s a strong social pressure to instantly caveat any praise with “but of course things aren’t perfect”.
I could tell you, following Johan Norberg's excellent new book, that since 1981 extreme poverty has dropped from 44% to 9%. That in the 1960s people in 51 countries consumed under 2,000 calories per person, today it’s just one. That 63% of countries are now democratic and that 95% of the health and education attainment gap between men and women has closed. But of course, I feel compelled to pre-emptively say, things are not perfect.
In Voltaire’s satirical novel Candide, a series of unrelenting misfortunes are used to ridicule the naive optimism of Professor Pangloss —a stand in for philosophers of the time— and his claims that this is the ‘best of all possible worlds’. Many thinkers today however seem to make an inverse claim: ‘this is the worst of all possible worlds’.
Quite why they believe this is not clear. Across ten major issues, Food, Sanitation, Life Expectancy, Poverty, Violence, the Environment, Literacy, Freedom, Equality and Child welfare, Norberg shows that life is unarguably better than it has ever been in human history.
Not better by small fractions but revolutionary different. In tribal pre-agrarian societies 524 people per 100’000 died a violent death, today it’s between 5 (in the US) and 1 per 100’000 (elsewhere). Slavery has gone from common place in 1800 to banned and condemned —though not quite eradicated— everywhere in the world. And literacy has gone from 21% in 1900 to 86% today.
Yet still we choose to believe that this must not be so. In his conclusion, Norberg notes that only 10% of Brits and 5% of Americans know that global poverty has halved. Most believe it is much higher than when they were born. Even his own well-educated Swedes have more than 70% of their population believing hunger is getting worse and poverty is increasing.
This is partly an incitement of education institutions and the media (both of which tend to focus on the negatives of war and oppression). But both systems merely reflect what we want to get out of them. We are drawn to bad news, we want to hear about the sickening car crash or grisly murder and we have no time for slow, steady, and boring increases in statistics showing our world is healthier, safer, smarter, cleaner and more just and decent than ever before.
As such, we remain ignorant of the world we live in. The success of the modern world is therefore an orphan. It is unloved by conservatives who believe we’ve fallen too far. And it is fundamentally disappointing to progressives who don’t believe we’ve risen enough.
Despite the name, Progress is not a progressive book. Norberg seems to have a moderate libertarian bent, though he’s much more interested in detailing what has changed than making broad ideological assertions about why. When he does venture to offer an explanation, it’s largely uncontroversial: technology, ideas, markets.
These are necessary but not sufficient causes for progressives. Also vital though under-explored in this book is the increasing competence and responsiveness of government (which is far more important than its size). Competent government, as many libertarian thinkers have noted, is a foundation for free societies. It prevents exploitation and provides the basic rights and security necessary for development.
Yet, I suspect progressives will find this book harder to embrace than other parts of the spectrum. The idea that everything is crap is almost a uniting principle of the left of politics. Though quite why I’m not sure. Progressives have championed many of the reforms that have led to today’s conditions. These changes are precisely why so many have laboured for so long. They show not only reason to celebrate, but reasons why we should not fear future progressive change.
This however is not what the left publicly says or privately thinks. Yet if you don’t know and can’t say how far we’ve come, how can you know where to go? How can you persuade people to give up simplistic racial prejudices if you too hold onto the mistaken idea that there is a rich, white ‘West’ and a poor, black ‘Rest’.
In truth, there is not a developed and a developing world, a west and rest separated by a racial or cultural gulf. But one world with a short, but important sliding scale between the best and worst. One world where the real question is not ‘when will the ‘rest’ catch up?’ but ‘why did it take the ‘West’ so long to develop?
What that last question implies, though Norberg doesn’t quite say, is that if progress is transferrable, if ideas and technology can be implanted around the world, then they can also be protected around the world. Russia may be turning its back on gender equality but Norway isn’t. America may be turning its back on clean energy, but China won’t. And when the small and confused regressive movements that occupy our TV screens so frequently do splutter out, the ideas that work, for building healthy, wealthy and wise open societies will come flooding back in.
Ultimately, Professor Pangloss was wrong in 18th century Europe, and he is wrong today. But only because we can and almost certainly will continue to improve. There are big challenges, especially on the environment, but I remain an optimist. Not just by my nature, but because it is the truth.
I could tell you, following Johan Norberg's excellent new book, that since 1981 extreme poverty has dropped from 44% to 9%. That in the 1960s people in 51 countries consumed under 2,000 calories per person, today it’s just one. That 63% of countries are now democratic and that 95% of the health and education attainment gap between men and women has closed. But of course, I feel compelled to pre-emptively say, things are not perfect.
In Voltaire’s satirical novel Candide, a series of unrelenting misfortunes are used to ridicule the naive optimism of Professor Pangloss —a stand in for philosophers of the time— and his claims that this is the ‘best of all possible worlds’. Many thinkers today however seem to make an inverse claim: ‘this is the worst of all possible worlds’.
Quite why they believe this is not clear. Across ten major issues, Food, Sanitation, Life Expectancy, Poverty, Violence, the Environment, Literacy, Freedom, Equality and Child welfare, Norberg shows that life is unarguably better than it has ever been in human history.
Not better by small fractions but revolutionary different. In tribal pre-agrarian societies 524 people per 100’000 died a violent death, today it’s between 5 (in the US) and 1 per 100’000 (elsewhere). Slavery has gone from common place in 1800 to banned and condemned —though not quite eradicated— everywhere in the world. And literacy has gone from 21% in 1900 to 86% today.
Yet still we choose to believe that this must not be so. In his conclusion, Norberg notes that only 10% of Brits and 5% of Americans know that global poverty has halved. Most believe it is much higher than when they were born. Even his own well-educated Swedes have more than 70% of their population believing hunger is getting worse and poverty is increasing.
This is partly an incitement of education institutions and the media (both of which tend to focus on the negatives of war and oppression). But both systems merely reflect what we want to get out of them. We are drawn to bad news, we want to hear about the sickening car crash or grisly murder and we have no time for slow, steady, and boring increases in statistics showing our world is healthier, safer, smarter, cleaner and more just and decent than ever before.
As such, we remain ignorant of the world we live in. The success of the modern world is therefore an orphan. It is unloved by conservatives who believe we’ve fallen too far. And it is fundamentally disappointing to progressives who don’t believe we’ve risen enough.
Despite the name, Progress is not a progressive book. Norberg seems to have a moderate libertarian bent, though he’s much more interested in detailing what has changed than making broad ideological assertions about why. When he does venture to offer an explanation, it’s largely uncontroversial: technology, ideas, markets.
These are necessary but not sufficient causes for progressives. Also vital though under-explored in this book is the increasing competence and responsiveness of government (which is far more important than its size). Competent government, as many libertarian thinkers have noted, is a foundation for free societies. It prevents exploitation and provides the basic rights and security necessary for development.
Yet, I suspect progressives will find this book harder to embrace than other parts of the spectrum. The idea that everything is crap is almost a uniting principle of the left of politics. Though quite why I’m not sure. Progressives have championed many of the reforms that have led to today’s conditions. These changes are precisely why so many have laboured for so long. They show not only reason to celebrate, but reasons why we should not fear future progressive change.
This however is not what the left publicly says or privately thinks. Yet if you don’t know and can’t say how far we’ve come, how can you know where to go? How can you persuade people to give up simplistic racial prejudices if you too hold onto the mistaken idea that there is a rich, white ‘West’ and a poor, black ‘Rest’.
In truth, there is not a developed and a developing world, a west and rest separated by a racial or cultural gulf. But one world with a short, but important sliding scale between the best and worst. One world where the real question is not ‘when will the ‘rest’ catch up?’ but ‘why did it take the ‘West’ so long to develop?
What that last question implies, though Norberg doesn’t quite say, is that if progress is transferrable, if ideas and technology can be implanted around the world, then they can also be protected around the world. Russia may be turning its back on gender equality but Norway isn’t. America may be turning its back on clean energy, but China won’t. And when the small and confused regressive movements that occupy our TV screens so frequently do splutter out, the ideas that work, for building healthy, wealthy and wise open societies will come flooding back in.
Ultimately, Professor Pangloss was wrong in 18th century Europe, and he is wrong today. But only because we can and almost certainly will continue to improve. There are big challenges, especially on the environment, but I remain an optimist. Not just by my nature, but because it is the truth.
December 21, 2016
As a big fan of Max Roser and his work on providing data to show the way in which the world has improved, this was right up my street. Focusing on improved healthcare, increased longevity, the decline in violence, and a number of other reasons we should be positive about the future, this is a concise and well-researched read for those looking to escape the perpetual negativity put out by the media. It's incredible to think that, in the last twenty years, extreme poverty has halved and yet this is rarely ever spoken about. (The only recent piece on the matter was by Nicolas Kristoff in the NY Times). Anyway, I digress, this is a refreshing and optimistic book. If 2016 has got you down, read it!
August 18, 2016
Food, Sanitation, Life Expectancy, Poverty, Violence, The environment, Literacy, Freedom, Equality and The Next Generation...
I enjoyed reading this informational text. The statistics and research was well presented and easy to digest. Considering all we hear these days are bad things and that the human race is doomed, I finished this book feeling a bit more optimistic and actually proud of the human race for coming so far in such a such period of time.
I enjoyed reading this informational text. The statistics and research was well presented and easy to digest. Considering all we hear these days are bad things and that the human race is doomed, I finished this book feeling a bit more optimistic and actually proud of the human race for coming so far in such a such period of time.
November 28, 2018
Os homo sapiens caminham sobre a Terra há uns 100 mil anos. Em mais de 99% desse período, mais de 99% tiveram uma existência curta e miserável, permeada de sofrimento, violência e doença.
Só muito recentemente, nos últimos 200 anos, e nem percebemos com muita clareza, isso mudou.
As sociedades humanas, a despeito de um certo pessimismo, mudaram para melhor em um período relativamente curto, se levarmos em conta o tempo em que a nossa espécie habita o planeta. Esses dois séculos, porém, podem nos parecer muito longos em razão do tempo de existência de cada indivíduo, que é bem menor.
Mas como se conseguiu isso? Como tantas pessoas deixaram – e ainda continuam a deixar – tais condições abjetas? Como globalmente todas as regiões do planeta – em maior ou menor grau – têm prosperado?
Evidentemente a ciência tem um papel crucial nisso. Conhecimento, que inclui tecnologia, tem sido capaz ao longo de 200 anos de oferecer soluções duradouras para combater fome, higiene, doenças e pobreza. As nossas vidas se tornaram bem mais dignas e confortáveis. Veja-se o caso de uma cirurgia – a de vesícula – que de modo geral é hoje em dia bastante simples. Uma pequena incisão, um dia no hospital e uma semana de recuperação em casa. Há 100 anos seria de altíssimo risco. Há 200, impossível e uma crise de vesícula fatal na imensa maioria dos casos. Isso é um caso entre tantos.
Mas a ciência e tecnologia prosperam somente em um ecossistema favorável, que envolve obrigatoriamente economia de mercado, instituições democráticas e educação.
Certamente, há críticas a serem feitas. O progresso nunca é um processo linear. Há idas e vindas, mas a tendência é a melhora. É o que a experiência dos últimos 200 anos tem a nos mostrar.
Em um país que está lá pelo meio do caminho e com frequência exasperante há um certo apego ao obscurantismo, parece óbvio que a solução é mais educação, mais economia de mercado e mais instituições políticas liberais e democráticas. As sociedades que progridem são, enfim, aquelas que trilham o caminho do cosmopolitismo, da abertura para o mundo. Infelizmente, é o contrário do que o Brasil tem feito durante tanto tempo, se fechando em relação ao mundo.
Enfim, nada do que leva ao progresso é muito genial. Na verdade, o caminho é relativamente simples.
Enfim, uma leitura instigante, que traz muitas informações relevantes e especialmente traz uma luz de esperança para aqueles que estão dispostos a ter um pouco de otimismo.
Uma nota final - mas que não afeta a minha avaliação do livro - diz respeito à revisão de texto. Há alguns erros típicos de revisão mal feita. Um sobrenome errado, um milhão em vez de bilhão e por aí.
Só muito recentemente, nos últimos 200 anos, e nem percebemos com muita clareza, isso mudou.
As sociedades humanas, a despeito de um certo pessimismo, mudaram para melhor em um período relativamente curto, se levarmos em conta o tempo em que a nossa espécie habita o planeta. Esses dois séculos, porém, podem nos parecer muito longos em razão do tempo de existência de cada indivíduo, que é bem menor.
Mas como se conseguiu isso? Como tantas pessoas deixaram – e ainda continuam a deixar – tais condições abjetas? Como globalmente todas as regiões do planeta – em maior ou menor grau – têm prosperado?
Evidentemente a ciência tem um papel crucial nisso. Conhecimento, que inclui tecnologia, tem sido capaz ao longo de 200 anos de oferecer soluções duradouras para combater fome, higiene, doenças e pobreza. As nossas vidas se tornaram bem mais dignas e confortáveis. Veja-se o caso de uma cirurgia – a de vesícula – que de modo geral é hoje em dia bastante simples. Uma pequena incisão, um dia no hospital e uma semana de recuperação em casa. Há 100 anos seria de altíssimo risco. Há 200, impossível e uma crise de vesícula fatal na imensa maioria dos casos. Isso é um caso entre tantos.
Mas a ciência e tecnologia prosperam somente em um ecossistema favorável, que envolve obrigatoriamente economia de mercado, instituições democráticas e educação.
Certamente, há críticas a serem feitas. O progresso nunca é um processo linear. Há idas e vindas, mas a tendência é a melhora. É o que a experiência dos últimos 200 anos tem a nos mostrar.
Em um país que está lá pelo meio do caminho e com frequência exasperante há um certo apego ao obscurantismo, parece óbvio que a solução é mais educação, mais economia de mercado e mais instituições políticas liberais e democráticas. As sociedades que progridem são, enfim, aquelas que trilham o caminho do cosmopolitismo, da abertura para o mundo. Infelizmente, é o contrário do que o Brasil tem feito durante tanto tempo, se fechando em relação ao mundo.
Enfim, nada do que leva ao progresso é muito genial. Na verdade, o caminho é relativamente simples.
Enfim, uma leitura instigante, que traz muitas informações relevantes e especialmente traz uma luz de esperança para aqueles que estão dispostos a ter um pouco de otimismo.
Uma nota final - mas que não afeta a minha avaliação do livro - diz respeito à revisão de texto. Há alguns erros típicos de revisão mal feita. Um sobrenome errado, um milhão em vez de bilhão e por aí.
January 12, 2023
Het boek richt zich op de enorme vooruitgang in de wereld in de afgelopen 200 jaar. Dankzij onder andere de mondialisering en vooruitgang van de technologie zijn er enorme verbeteringen op het gebied van gezondheid, armoede, onderwijs, vrouwenrechten en milieu. Het deed me erg denken aan Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think en kent een vergelijkbare boodschap op basis van feiten/cijfers, in het geval van Norberg gaat het gepaard met een liberale blik op de wereld en een sterk geloof in de voordelen van mondialisering. Goed geschreven, inspirerend, aanrader!
January 12, 2023
Пінкер на мінімалках
September 14, 2020
It is always good to know something about the writer of the book, paper, treatise, per point of view. This was a welcome rehash of the scientific progress over the last 300+ years in 10 areas that are critical variables in our lives (food, sanitation, life expectancy, etc). The information was data driven. I liked that.
I liked the positive spin. I have always felt and argued that things have been getting better in general. The good gets overshadowed by 'the bad'. There is just too many/much news programs/networks focusing on the bad since many news outlets continue to follow the mantra, "If it bleeds, it leads."
However, I didn't like the nod to libertarian ideology. Individuals were not the only driving force to improve our collective situation. Without governments/forces to check an individual's greed (Caesar, Sulla, Genghis Khan, Pinky and the Brain) or individuals/society checking governments (Magna Carta, D of I, US Constitution) advances would never have been achieved. Individuals and organizations have competed and cooperated in different measures to get us to this point. The last question that needed to be addressed was, what is a fair share (taxes, service, contribution, surcharges for ruining the environment, not working or contributing due to sloth) to remain a part of the society? When we lived in smaller communities it was easier to assess. Now assessing it is much harder. Arete!
I liked the positive spin. I have always felt and argued that things have been getting better in general. The good gets overshadowed by 'the bad'. There is just too many/much news programs/networks focusing on the bad since many news outlets continue to follow the mantra, "If it bleeds, it leads."
However, I didn't like the nod to libertarian ideology. Individuals were not the only driving force to improve our collective situation. Without governments/forces to check an individual's greed (Caesar, Sulla, Genghis Khan, Pinky and the Brain) or individuals/society checking governments (Magna Carta, D of I, US Constitution) advances would never have been achieved. Individuals and organizations have competed and cooperated in different measures to get us to this point. The last question that needed to be addressed was, what is a fair share (taxes, service, contribution, surcharges for ruining the environment, not working or contributing due to sloth) to remain a part of the society? When we lived in smaller communities it was easier to assess. Now assessing it is much harder. Arete!
August 13, 2018
Highly Helpful
Another book that helps you grasp the world better and understand the trends while adopting a more positive world view. Definitely a must read for everyone, especially the leftists and left liberals who are hell bent on the idea of the world coming to an end because of capitalism.
Another book that helps you grasp the world better and understand the trends while adopting a more positive world view. Definitely a must read for everyone, especially the leftists and left liberals who are hell bent on the idea of the world coming to an end because of capitalism.
January 8, 2019
Excelente ensayo, muy bien documentado con un alto nivel expositivo o sea que aborda de manera objetiva los hechos analizados. Plagado de ejemplos y de lectura fácil. No recomendado para agoreros del fin de los tiempos y demás ralea que nos machaca habitualmente en los medios de comunicación acerca de lo mal que está todo y de lo inminente del colapso del sistema.
September 16, 2021
Fascinating to learn about what has gone wrong and what has gone well in history. Also fascinating why we as humans are often so focused on the negative that it's hard to see the positive. This book is about what has gone well.
To showcase how life was before compared to now, the following text from the book is fitting I think:
"Consider a ten-year-old girl living 200 years ago. Wherever she was born, she could not have expected to live longer than thirty years. She would have had five to seven siblings, and she would already have seen at least one or two of them die. The chance that her mother would survive childbirth was smaller than the chance that the present generation will meet their grandparents. She would have been brought up under conditions we consider unbearable. Her family would not have had access to clean water or a toilet. Chances are that they did not even have a latrine; they would have used a ditch or gone behind a tree. Her surroundings would have been littered with garbage and faeces, contaminating water sources and devastating lives. Her parents would live in constant fear that she would be taken away by tuberculosis, cholera, smallpox or measles - or starvation. The little girl would have been stunted, skinny and short since she lived in a world of chronic undernourishment and recurring famine, where people did not get the energy to grow and function properly. This would also have halted her brain's development.
She would not receive any schooling, and would never learn to read or write. She would certainly have been put to work at an early age, perhaps as a domestic servant in another family's home. In any case, she would have been blocked from almost all occupations and would be considered the property of her father, until he married her away, at which point ownership would pass to her husband. If he beat her or raped her, there was no law banning it. She would not be able to organize politically to change this, since she would not have the right to vote nor stand for election no matter where she lived. If she wanted to leave it all behind, there were no cars, buses or planes. The first trains existed, but only to transport coal in parts of England and Wales.
She lived in a brutal world, where the risk of a violent death was almost three times higher than today. England has 300 capital offences on the books, and she would still see corpses displayed on gibbets. Torture and slavery were still common. Peacetime was an intermission between wars. The world had just gone through the Napoleonic Wars, with the whole of Europe and many other parts of the world a battlefield. Any security you had built up could be torn apart in a few days."
To follow up with a 10-year-old girl living now, the book made another text which I'll quote below:
"The same ten-year-old girl living today is more likely to reach retirement age than her forebears were to live to their fifth birthday. Even if she lives in one of the world's poorest countries, she has better access to nutrition than a girl in the richest countries 200 years ago. The risk that she will lead a life of extreme poverty has declined from ninety per cent to less than ten percent. She goes to school just like almost everyone in her generation and illiteracy will be eradicated during her lifetime. Her parents probably support her so that she won't have to drop out to work. Now she has a good chance of living in a democracy, where women have individual rights and protections. She faces a lower risk of experiencing war than any other generation in human history. Her risk of dying from a natural disaster is ninety-five per cent smaller than it would have been a hundred years ago" Etc...
Recommended to people who like reading about how progress evolves throughout history when it comes to certain topics. I don't think all chapters were 5 stars but I certainly recommend reading it.
To showcase how life was before compared to now, the following text from the book is fitting I think:
"Consider a ten-year-old girl living 200 years ago. Wherever she was born, she could not have expected to live longer than thirty years. She would have had five to seven siblings, and she would already have seen at least one or two of them die. The chance that her mother would survive childbirth was smaller than the chance that the present generation will meet their grandparents. She would have been brought up under conditions we consider unbearable. Her family would not have had access to clean water or a toilet. Chances are that they did not even have a latrine; they would have used a ditch or gone behind a tree. Her surroundings would have been littered with garbage and faeces, contaminating water sources and devastating lives. Her parents would live in constant fear that she would be taken away by tuberculosis, cholera, smallpox or measles - or starvation. The little girl would have been stunted, skinny and short since she lived in a world of chronic undernourishment and recurring famine, where people did not get the energy to grow and function properly. This would also have halted her brain's development.
She would not receive any schooling, and would never learn to read or write. She would certainly have been put to work at an early age, perhaps as a domestic servant in another family's home. In any case, she would have been blocked from almost all occupations and would be considered the property of her father, until he married her away, at which point ownership would pass to her husband. If he beat her or raped her, there was no law banning it. She would not be able to organize politically to change this, since she would not have the right to vote nor stand for election no matter where she lived. If she wanted to leave it all behind, there were no cars, buses or planes. The first trains existed, but only to transport coal in parts of England and Wales.
She lived in a brutal world, where the risk of a violent death was almost three times higher than today. England has 300 capital offences on the books, and she would still see corpses displayed on gibbets. Torture and slavery were still common. Peacetime was an intermission between wars. The world had just gone through the Napoleonic Wars, with the whole of Europe and many other parts of the world a battlefield. Any security you had built up could be torn apart in a few days."
To follow up with a 10-year-old girl living now, the book made another text which I'll quote below:
"The same ten-year-old girl living today is more likely to reach retirement age than her forebears were to live to their fifth birthday. Even if she lives in one of the world's poorest countries, she has better access to nutrition than a girl in the richest countries 200 years ago. The risk that she will lead a life of extreme poverty has declined from ninety per cent to less than ten percent. She goes to school just like almost everyone in her generation and illiteracy will be eradicated during her lifetime. Her parents probably support her so that she won't have to drop out to work. Now she has a good chance of living in a democracy, where women have individual rights and protections. She faces a lower risk of experiencing war than any other generation in human history. Her risk of dying from a natural disaster is ninety-five per cent smaller than it would have been a hundred years ago" Etc...
Recommended to people who like reading about how progress evolves throughout history when it comes to certain topics. I don't think all chapters were 5 stars but I certainly recommend reading it.
July 20, 2022
Johan Norberg has written what is almost an update of Julian Simon's two great books - The Ultimate Resource. The book was written in 2016 and takes 10 areas where people should understand the progress we have made in the following areas - Food, Sanitation, Life Expectancy, Poverty, Violence, the Environment, Literacy, Freedom, Equality - he then discusses the next generation and finally presents some thoughts on why we remember the "good old days" so poorly. (Mostly based on bad memories - and a series of other factors - bad things are more memorable, the media tends to cover anomalies not routines and a series of other factors. Each of the chapters present a ton of data in the area, lest you think Norberg only presents a feel good book.
For me the book offers two questions - first, are there ways for us to more conscientiously recognize the progress we've made? But second, how can we counteract the tendencies of politicians seeking our votes and media selling stories and hangers on who simply want to scare us for their own purposes - to simply buzz off.
COVID started quickly and for a number of reasons we resolved to listen to only one set of stories and to accept only one broad set of responses to the pandemic. The country and the world are far worse off because of those unilateral views. And if our federal system is to survive we need to think about how to slow down the unreasonable role that policy makers made in a very uncertain time. Knowledge advances with experimentation and we forgot that.
For me the book offers two questions - first, are there ways for us to more conscientiously recognize the progress we've made? But second, how can we counteract the tendencies of politicians seeking our votes and media selling stories and hangers on who simply want to scare us for their own purposes - to simply buzz off.
COVID started quickly and for a number of reasons we resolved to listen to only one set of stories and to accept only one broad set of responses to the pandemic. The country and the world are far worse off because of those unilateral views. And if our federal system is to survive we need to think about how to slow down the unreasonable role that policy makers made in a very uncertain time. Knowledge advances with experimentation and we forgot that.
April 23, 2019
You’ve seen those odd TED talks about how things are getting better? This book is a description of many ways in which things are getting better in the world. The author looks for the positive perspectives on the growth of humanity. Food – more plentiful now than in the past. Life expectancy – much longer than even 100 years ago. Poverty – lower by our measures and dropping rapidly. Clean water, sanitation, literacy, war, environment (at least in some ways), freedom, equality, all these areas contain believable stories about the world becoming a better place. After chapters of mostly positive stories and statistics, the author ends the book with a chapter on “why you don’t think so,” in which he trashes media for pandering to our baser instincts. He notes that burning buildings get our attention, based on our ancestral needs to self-preserve. Media makes use of this instinct to focus on the horrors of the world. It sells. I found this a very good palate cleanser after reading books on war and dystopia and horror, and with a daughter graduating college. It makes you think positively of the non-immediate future and provides perspective as you plan.
October 17, 2021
This is a fascinating book. Norberg looks at ten parameters - including food, sanitation, life expectancy, poverty, violence, the environment, literacy, freedom and equality - and argues that by each measure the world has got better over the last few decades. He is realistic about future threats including war, global debt and climate change but marshalls a bewildering array of evidence to support his case. Unlike Alvin Schmidt and Vishal Mangalwadi he sees this improvement as having its roots in the Enlightenment rather than being the legacy of Christianity - but overall it is a treasure trove of data about things to be thankful for. A great read and valuable resource I'm sure I'll be going back to.
February 19, 2022
Johan Norberg's Progress captures in a readable, concise manner, the tangible progress that humanity has made and can still make. It is a more digestible version of Stephen Pinker's Enlightenment Now.
In a world where it is increasingly popular to believe that there is a decline in the quality of life, it is refreshing to hear voices of reason like Norberg. By virtually every meaningful measure, life has been improving for the vast majority of people on planet earth, COVID years excepted.
It is perhaps fitting that there are so many Nordic intellectuals who are the voices of reason in this era where the Scandinavian countries have demonstrated leadership in defending freedom in the face of the almost universal Fascist approach to the pandemic.
Let us hope that Norberg's tribute to progress is not the high water mark.
In a world where it is increasingly popular to believe that there is a decline in the quality of life, it is refreshing to hear voices of reason like Norberg. By virtually every meaningful measure, life has been improving for the vast majority of people on planet earth, COVID years excepted.
It is perhaps fitting that there are so many Nordic intellectuals who are the voices of reason in this era where the Scandinavian countries have demonstrated leadership in defending freedom in the face of the almost universal Fascist approach to the pandemic.
Let us hope that Norberg's tribute to progress is not the high water mark.
August 15, 2018
This is a great read, that is also backed up by facts and data. I could not help keep looking back to the annex, in order to double check the numbers. Not all is lost for humanity, the progress does not stand still and despite creating new problems on world scale, we as humanity are also finding ways to mitigate existing issues. It is quite remarkable how the humanity was able to advance in the last 100-200 years, and sometimes I am anxious about what’s it gonna be in the next 50 years? Absolutely recommended to those pessimists out there who think humanity will soon come to an end.
May 29, 2024
An important reminder about where we have come and why it is a good thing. A dose of this positivity is not saying that we are in a utopia or that some of the fixes from our problems haven’t created new ones. I would hope and I feel that the world would be better if we all had even a tenuous grasp of the themes in this book.
December 2, 2024
Un libro que a partir de datos y hechos pone en perspectiva el porque hoy estamos en el mejor momento de la historia de la humanidad.
Este libro nos demuestra el PROGRESO que ha tenido la humanidad, nos invita de manera muy sutil a tener reflexiones y nos inspira para pensar y creer en que cada vez lograremos estar en el mejor momento de la humanidad.
Este libro nos demuestra el PROGRESO que ha tenido la humanidad, nos invita de manera muy sutil a tener reflexiones y nos inspira para pensar y creer en que cada vez lograremos estar en el mejor momento de la humanidad.
September 4, 2020
Nice to read something about the cheese for once.
April 7, 2022
I wish there were more books on optimism. The world is markedly better than it has ever been. Occasionally we need to take a breath and realize that.
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