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How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of
Thinking in Bets
will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker.
What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut.
What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive?
Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn:
• To identify and dismantle hidden biases.
• To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek.
• To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions.
• When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance.
• To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values.
Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this workbook helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.
What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut.
What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive?
Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn:
• To identify and dismantle hidden biases.
• To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek.
• To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions.
• When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance.
• To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values.
Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this workbook helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.
240 pages, Kindle Edition
First published September 15, 2020
1704 people are currently reading
12147 people want to read
About the author
Annie Duke
13 books752 followersAnnie is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. She is also a member of the National Board of After-School All-Stars and the Board of Directors of the Franklin Institute. In 2020, she joined the board of the Renew Democracy Initiative.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 322 reviews
December 27, 2020
I've picked it up because of two reasons:
* I've heard a lot of praise for Annie Duke (the author)
* the statement "combat your own biases" (that appears few times in the book's description/reviews) got me intrigued
It's rather an introductory book, but it's really well-shaped. It covers (among others):
* some basic cognitive bias
* some basic decision-making techniques
* two kinds of decisions: fast and permanent
* pre-mortems, why it may make sense to give up, etc.
What did I like most? Actually, the initial part of the book: about how ridiculous is (paradoxically) to judge the decision ... by its outcomes. That's something I find very important, yet, I'm one of those who keep forgetting about it in the heat of everyday's battles.
Solid 3.7-3.9 stars. And a good starter on the topic.
Why not more? I kept having the feeling that each chapter was starting nicely, but it had to end when things were starting to get really interesting :)
* I've heard a lot of praise for Annie Duke (the author)
* the statement "combat your own biases" (that appears few times in the book's description/reviews) got me intrigued
It's rather an introductory book, but it's really well-shaped. It covers (among others):
* some basic cognitive bias
* some basic decision-making techniques
* two kinds of decisions: fast and permanent
* pre-mortems, why it may make sense to give up, etc.
What did I like most? Actually, the initial part of the book: about how ridiculous is (paradoxically) to judge the decision ... by its outcomes. That's something I find very important, yet, I'm one of those who keep forgetting about it in the heat of everyday's battles.
Solid 3.7-3.9 stars. And a good starter on the topic.
Why not more? I kept having the feeling that each chapter was starting nicely, but it had to end when things were starting to get really interesting :)
November 15, 2020
Annie Duke played poker. She was damn good at it. So good that she holds a World Series of Poker Golf bracelet from 2004. So good that her lifetime earnings from poker exceeded a whopping $4 million. She has also, not surprisingly written a number of instructional books for poker players. Annie Duke, before turning professional was also awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. She brings both the facets of poker and psychology to bear in her latest book, “How to decide”. As the title confesses, the book contains numerous checklists, practice exercises and toolkits to aid and abet the reader to make decisions in a logical, rational and practical manner.
At the heart of Ms. Duke’s book, lies the concept of the 3 ‘P’s – Preferences, Payoffs and Probabilities. Every preference is unique to the one engaged in making the decision. In order to ensure that the decision is made in a scientific and implementable manner, the decision maker needs to comprehend her goals and values, which will inform her preferences for various outcomes. Payoffs succeed preferences. Potential payoffs look at how outcomes impact advancements in either attaining the goal or straying from the objective. Every decision that is made has both payoffs as well as risks – upsides and downsides. Upsides and downsides may be both tangible as well as intangible. The key aspect to be considered prior to evaluating payoffs is to ascertain whether the potential advantages/upside is greater than the corresponding risk/downside. The final P in the troika is Probabilities. This involves defining the probability of the likely occurrence of each outcome.
Ms. Duke also urges her readers to employ the “Happiness Test” to assist them in their process of implementing decisions and instituting the attendant mechanisms. “Ask yourself if the outcome of your decision, good or bad, will likely have a significant effect on your happiness in a year. If the answer is no, the decision passes the test, which means you can speed up. Repeat for a month and a week. The shorter the time period for which your answer is “no, it won’t much affect my happiness,” the more you can trade off accuracy in favor of saving time.”
Ms. Duke also warns her readers about getting stuck in the quagmire of what she terms “resulting.” When we get muddled between the quality of decisions and the quality of outcomes, incorrectly trying to find a connection between the two, we risk repeating decision errors that, thanks to luck, preceded a good outcome. We may also avoid repeating good decisions that, because of luck, didn’t work out.
The most interesting chapters in the book are the ones dealing with what Ms. Duke terms “analysis paralysis.” In vogue even before the time of Aesop and his Fables, popularized by Voltaire when he immortally stated “perfect is the enemy of the good” and formally given the phrase by Igor Ansoff in his book, “Corporate Strategy: An Analytic Approach to Business Policy for Growth and Expansion”, “analysis paralysis” refers to spending a lot of time on inconsequential matters. “The time the average person spends deciding what to eat, watch, and wear adds up to 250 to 275 hours per year. That’s a lot of time spent on decisions that intuitively feel like they are inconsequential.” With a view to assist her readers in making decisions in a prompt and timely fashion especially where the potential positive payoffs outweigh its potential negative counterpart, Ms. Duke provides the following flow chart:
The term “freeroll” in the chart refers to situation where there is an asymmetry between the upside and downside because the potential losses are insignificant.
“Sheep In Wolf’s Clothing” is a situation where one has multiple options that are close in potential payoffs. These options are sheep in wolf’s clothing decisions. Close calls for high-impact decisions tend to induce analysis paralysis, but the indecision is, in itself, a signal that you can go fast.
Another innovative solution offered by Ms. Duke is the one relating to “Premortem” analysis. Unlike a postmortem analysis whereby facts leading to the success or failure are dissected post the actual occurrence of the outcome, premortem analysis involves identifying the goal one is trying to achieve or a specific decision one is considering. The steps in a pre-mortem analysis according to Ms. Duke involves:
Figuring out a reasonable time period for achieving the goal or for the decision to play out;
Imagining it’s the day after that period of time and the decision maker didn’t achieve the goal, or the decision worked out poorly. Looking back from that imagined point in the future, the decision maker has to list up to five reasons why she failed due to her own decisions and actions or those of her team;
The decision maker has to list up to five reasons why she failed due to things outside her control.
If the decision maker is going about this as a team exercise, she can have each member do the above steps independently, prior to a group discussion of reasons.
The same process may be undertaken even assuming the decision maker manages to achieve the goal. Such a positive analysis is termed “Backcasting” instead of a pre-mortem exercise.
Even though the concepts propounded, and the philosophy espoused by Ms. Duke in her book might be old wine in a new bottle, the container makes all the difference. It is not a mere repackaging exercise or an endeavour that reinvents the wheel. It is more of a reimagining process that goads on the readers to institute paradigm shifts in the way they act, think, speak, plan, react and most importantly decide.
At the heart of Ms. Duke’s book, lies the concept of the 3 ‘P’s – Preferences, Payoffs and Probabilities. Every preference is unique to the one engaged in making the decision. In order to ensure that the decision is made in a scientific and implementable manner, the decision maker needs to comprehend her goals and values, which will inform her preferences for various outcomes. Payoffs succeed preferences. Potential payoffs look at how outcomes impact advancements in either attaining the goal or straying from the objective. Every decision that is made has both payoffs as well as risks – upsides and downsides. Upsides and downsides may be both tangible as well as intangible. The key aspect to be considered prior to evaluating payoffs is to ascertain whether the potential advantages/upside is greater than the corresponding risk/downside. The final P in the troika is Probabilities. This involves defining the probability of the likely occurrence of each outcome.
Ms. Duke also urges her readers to employ the “Happiness Test” to assist them in their process of implementing decisions and instituting the attendant mechanisms. “Ask yourself if the outcome of your decision, good or bad, will likely have a significant effect on your happiness in a year. If the answer is no, the decision passes the test, which means you can speed up. Repeat for a month and a week. The shorter the time period for which your answer is “no, it won’t much affect my happiness,” the more you can trade off accuracy in favor of saving time.”
Ms. Duke also warns her readers about getting stuck in the quagmire of what she terms “resulting.” When we get muddled between the quality of decisions and the quality of outcomes, incorrectly trying to find a connection between the two, we risk repeating decision errors that, thanks to luck, preceded a good outcome. We may also avoid repeating good decisions that, because of luck, didn’t work out.
The most interesting chapters in the book are the ones dealing with what Ms. Duke terms “analysis paralysis.” In vogue even before the time of Aesop and his Fables, popularized by Voltaire when he immortally stated “perfect is the enemy of the good” and formally given the phrase by Igor Ansoff in his book, “Corporate Strategy: An Analytic Approach to Business Policy for Growth and Expansion”, “analysis paralysis” refers to spending a lot of time on inconsequential matters. “The time the average person spends deciding what to eat, watch, and wear adds up to 250 to 275 hours per year. That’s a lot of time spent on decisions that intuitively feel like they are inconsequential.” With a view to assist her readers in making decisions in a prompt and timely fashion especially where the potential positive payoffs outweigh its potential negative counterpart, Ms. Duke provides the following flow chart:
The term “freeroll” in the chart refers to situation where there is an asymmetry between the upside and downside because the potential losses are insignificant.
“Sheep In Wolf’s Clothing” is a situation where one has multiple options that are close in potential payoffs. These options are sheep in wolf’s clothing decisions. Close calls for high-impact decisions tend to induce analysis paralysis, but the indecision is, in itself, a signal that you can go fast.
Another innovative solution offered by Ms. Duke is the one relating to “Premortem” analysis. Unlike a postmortem analysis whereby facts leading to the success or failure are dissected post the actual occurrence of the outcome, premortem analysis involves identifying the goal one is trying to achieve or a specific decision one is considering. The steps in a pre-mortem analysis according to Ms. Duke involves:
Figuring out a reasonable time period for achieving the goal or for the decision to play out;
Imagining it’s the day after that period of time and the decision maker didn’t achieve the goal, or the decision worked out poorly. Looking back from that imagined point in the future, the decision maker has to list up to five reasons why she failed due to her own decisions and actions or those of her team;
The decision maker has to list up to five reasons why she failed due to things outside her control.
If the decision maker is going about this as a team exercise, she can have each member do the above steps independently, prior to a group discussion of reasons.
The same process may be undertaken even assuming the decision maker manages to achieve the goal. Such a positive analysis is termed “Backcasting” instead of a pre-mortem exercise.
Even though the concepts propounded, and the philosophy espoused by Ms. Duke in her book might be old wine in a new bottle, the container makes all the difference. It is not a mere repackaging exercise or an endeavour that reinvents the wheel. It is more of a reimagining process that goads on the readers to institute paradigm shifts in the way they act, think, speak, plan, react and most importantly decide.
December 22, 2020
This book is filled with excellent advice on creating a process to make better decisions, including:
- Think of all possible outcomes and the likelihood.
- A bad outcome doesn't mean a bad decision since there are things out of your control.
- Hedge against outcomes out of your control (e.g., insurance) or select an option with lower risks.
- If the result was not on your list of possible outcomes, improve your process/expand your knowledge.
There are worksheets after each section for you to build on your decision-making process. There are redundancies with summary sheets and checklists covering the same points in the chapter but you can skip those if you're not going to do the exercises.
- Think of all possible outcomes and the likelihood.
- A bad outcome doesn't mean a bad decision since there are things out of your control.
- Hedge against outcomes out of your control (e.g., insurance) or select an option with lower risks.
- If the result was not on your list of possible outcomes, improve your process/expand your knowledge.
There are worksheets after each section for you to build on your decision-making process. There are redundancies with summary sheets and checklists covering the same points in the chapter but you can skip those if you're not going to do the exercises.
December 30, 2023
mixed feeling despre cartea asta.
E presărată cu multe exerciții practice și mi se pare greu de parcurs dacă nu o iei foarte în serios și vrei să sari peste ele.
Am găsit informații folositoare și sfaturi ușor de pus în practică și mi s-a părut fain că fiecare capitol s-a încheiat cu concluzii și un mic rezumat.
E presărată cu multe exerciții practice și mi se pare greu de parcurs dacă nu o iei foarte în serios și vrei să sari peste ele.
Am găsit informații folositoare și sfaturi ușor de pus în practică și mi s-a părut fain că fiecare capitol s-a încheiat cu concluzii și un mic rezumat.
October 27, 2020
The author’s first book (Thinking In Bets) was awesome and I recommend it often. So maybe I had too high expectations, but I was disappointed in this book. It’s a critical topic and she wasn’t wrong in any of the insights she shared. But they have all he shared elsewhere—and done better in those other books. Specifically, I’d recommend Thinking Fast and Slow and Decisive. So, this was a less thorough and less insightful version of those other books. Oh well. Good reminders, I guess.
June 6, 2024
A good book that will compel you to improve your decision making.
October 13, 2020
As Annie Duke writes in the intro of How to Decide, there are two things that determine how your life turns out: luck and the quality of your decisions — and you have control over only one of those things.
Decisionmaking shapes our lives, but we’re notoriously bad at it. Even after graduating with a cognitive science degree, it wasn’t until I read How to Decide that I felt like I was implementing my research into my daily life. Annie’s practical explanations, examples, and exercises helped me think rigorously about how I (a) form beliefs, (b) use my beliefs to make decisions, and (c) learn from past decisions. The book helped me address questions like: How can I fix inaccurate beliefs and judge what we need to learn more about? When deciding on something, when should I speed up vs. slow down? How can I overcome biases like resulting or hindsight bias? And, critically, how can I fairly review and re-evaluate my own decisionmaking process?
I read an early copy of this book as a young graduate and reaped a huge benefit from taking a pen and paper to Annie’s exercises. Drawing out decision trees, writing down probability estimates, performing pre-mortems, and more helped me decide where to move, what career to pursue, and even how to land my dream job. The same frameworks, in turn, have helped my friends and family decide whether to go to college, how to negotiate with managers, and even whether to start a startup.
Decisionmaking is an existential skill for us not only as individuals but also as a nation. News headlines every day on the pandemic, elections, etc. show us that the way that we make judgements in the face of uncertainty is a matter of life and death. I can only hope that more people learn from books like this one to improve the way we live. I, for one, will be returning to it regularly.
Decisionmaking shapes our lives, but we’re notoriously bad at it. Even after graduating with a cognitive science degree, it wasn’t until I read How to Decide that I felt like I was implementing my research into my daily life. Annie’s practical explanations, examples, and exercises helped me think rigorously about how I (a) form beliefs, (b) use my beliefs to make decisions, and (c) learn from past decisions. The book helped me address questions like: How can I fix inaccurate beliefs and judge what we need to learn more about? When deciding on something, when should I speed up vs. slow down? How can I overcome biases like resulting or hindsight bias? And, critically, how can I fairly review and re-evaluate my own decisionmaking process?
I read an early copy of this book as a young graduate and reaped a huge benefit from taking a pen and paper to Annie’s exercises. Drawing out decision trees, writing down probability estimates, performing pre-mortems, and more helped me decide where to move, what career to pursue, and even how to land my dream job. The same frameworks, in turn, have helped my friends and family decide whether to go to college, how to negotiate with managers, and even whether to start a startup.
Decisionmaking is an existential skill for us not only as individuals but also as a nation. News headlines every day on the pandemic, elections, etc. show us that the way that we make judgements in the face of uncertainty is a matter of life and death. I can only hope that more people learn from books like this one to improve the way we live. I, for one, will be returning to it regularly.
April 5, 2021
Pretty useful book on decision skills. 4 instead of 5 stars because the message and lessons could have been either more numerous or sent to the audience in a more compact format. Also the author has waaaaaay too many books on decision making in different circumstances - but I can bet my money that they all regurgitate the same information, but with more appeal to the markets they claim to cater to.
May 3, 2024
4.5 stars! I listened to this one and ended up listening to it again right afterwards because I feel like there was such good info that I didn’t want to forget. Will be reading this one multiple times and would def recommend.
June 7, 2021
In one of his podcasts, Study-tube influencer Thomas Frank talked mentioned the author who is a celebrated poker player and her interdisciplinary approach to decision making(I mean she is using poker winning skills and applying the lessons she learned to decision making process in real life) had me fascinated.
The author's approach to viewing decisions through the lens of "Resulting" and some other biases isn't fresh but engaging. The author gave never before hear dimensions to why journaling is a necessary habit for decision making. Given my 9ish year long journaling habit, I felt pretty validated.
It is feels useful to look at life choices in terms of decision trees and probability clouds.
But, I dunno. I'm generally skeptical about these things. In the least, the book will help you to guide yourself away from both maladaptive self-criticism and self-appreciation.
I would also recommend people to read Michael Sandel's Tyranny of Merit alongside. While this book addresses certain cognitive biases associated with the ideas of winning and losing, Tyranny of Merit explores the political and social outcomes which I feel are closely related to the biases addressed in this book.
The author's approach to viewing decisions through the lens of "Resulting" and some other biases isn't fresh but engaging. The author gave never before hear dimensions to why journaling is a necessary habit for decision making. Given my 9ish year long journaling habit, I felt pretty validated.
It is feels useful to look at life choices in terms of decision trees and probability clouds.
But, I dunno. I'm generally skeptical about these things. In the least, the book will help you to guide yourself away from both maladaptive self-criticism and self-appreciation.
I would also recommend people to read Michael Sandel's Tyranny of Merit alongside. While this book addresses certain cognitive biases associated with the ideas of winning and losing, Tyranny of Merit explores the political and social outcomes which I feel are closely related to the biases addressed in this book.
November 18, 2020
Not the book I expected–I should have read the summary first! Hard to come up with a "fair" rating. I feel like this book could become my starting point or reference in the future when organizing training sessions or when providing coaching on Decision Making in general, given how the book is (well) structured: very tactical and practical checklists, thoughts experiments, workshops, and real-world scenarios that touch on pretty much any aspect of our decision-making processes. Annie's thoughts are well organized, and she provides a good recipe that should at least encourage us to dig deeper into a specific area whenever "How to Decide" is lacking depth (eg. deciding on policies, ethical decisions, etc.), presumably to keep it short, digestible, and actionable.
October 10, 2024
A potentially very useful book whose target audience must be different than me. Duke explains basic concepts like expected value, cognitive biases, and counterfactual thinking in terms that even the most statistically illiterate person must be able to grasp. She shows how these skills can be used to make better decisions across a wide variety of domains—whether that’s moving cities for a job, changing careers, or hiring someone. Even if every concept is familiar to you and explained at too elementary a level for you, the book may still have added value for you.
Duke starts by explaining what she calls “resulting”: judging how good a decision is by how good or bad the result was. She implores the reader not to confuse decision quality with outcome quality. We all reflexively do this, which can lead us to make bad decisions in the future: either by not repeating a good decision because it previously led to a bad outcome (e.g., hiring an employee who interviewed well, looked good on paper and had good references, but turned out to be ill-suited to the job), or by repeating a bad decision because the outcome was good (e.g., drunk driving but not getting into an accident or getting caught).
Duke then explores how hindsight bias amplifies the effects of resulting, as we often believe an outcome was predictable or inevitable after it occurs. We experience “memory creep”, “where the stuff that reveals itself after the fact creeps into your memory of what you knew or was knowable before the decision” (p. 58). Duke recommends using a Knowledge Tracker to circumvent hindsight bias, whereby you document your state of knowledge before and after you make a decision.
Duke then proceeds to what I consider to be the most substantive parts of the book: discussing counterfactual thinking and expected values (though she doesn’t use the term expected value once). She suggests using decision trees to map out possible outcomes from various decisions. More specifically, she encourages the reader to think in terms of specific payoffs and probabilities to make the decision that maximizes the expected return (i.e., expected value), using one’s preferences, goals and values. She argues against using pros vs cons lists because they omit information about magnitude (payoff) and probability of an item occurring. Eminently sensible advice. Like at various points throughout the book, I scratched my head about who her target audience was when she spelled out what a percentage was (p. 120); but I suppose it’s better to be crystal clear than risk losing any part of the audience (?).
Next, Duke dives into the use of probability terms (“probably”, “likely”, “doubtful”, etc.), urging the reader to translate such terms into quantitative probability statements. She offers a useful exercise to calibrate one’s confidence levels using lower and upper bounds—most people display overconfidence when doing this task.
The “inside view” is then compared to the “outside view”—how things look to us vs how things look to others. Cognitive biases like confirmation bias entrench us in the inside view. Motivated reasoning is especially pernicious in blinding us to the outside view, especially for smarter people who are better are spinning a persuasive narrative to convince us we don’t need to change our beliefs. To combat these tendencies, Duke suggests “perspective tracking” to expose us to both the inside and outside views, and to compare the elements that overlap in order to get closer to an ideal decision.
The final three chapters are about mental models we can use to improve our decision-making in a variety of ways. We are introduced to do the “time-accuracy trade-off”, which we ought to consider when making decisions; relatively inconsequential decisions can be made faster, whereas consequential ones need more deliberation. For example, what one has for dinner tonight is almost certainly not going to affect one’s happiness a year, a month or even a week later, so we should probably devote less time to such a decision. Negative thinking is presented to help identify areas that may impede you from attaining a goal. Specifically, Duke proposes using prospective hindsight (looking back from an imagined future at how you got where you did) and premortems (similar, but imagining from the future what caused you to fail in achieving your goal) to attain access to the outside view and avoid cognitive biases.
One unique thing about the book is that exercises are presented throughout the book to put all these tools into practice. I didn’t do all of them, but many are quite useful to practice decision-making.
I’d recommend this above just about any self-help book due to the litany of concrete tools presented throughout. Many such tools are simply about how to think more rationally, scientifically and statistically in general, but with special focus on how these tools can be harnessed to improve decision-making.
Recommended, especially if you’re unfamiliar with many of these concepts and you find yourself struggling to make decisions of some type.
Duke starts by explaining what she calls “resulting”: judging how good a decision is by how good or bad the result was. She implores the reader not to confuse decision quality with outcome quality. We all reflexively do this, which can lead us to make bad decisions in the future: either by not repeating a good decision because it previously led to a bad outcome (e.g., hiring an employee who interviewed well, looked good on paper and had good references, but turned out to be ill-suited to the job), or by repeating a bad decision because the outcome was good (e.g., drunk driving but not getting into an accident or getting caught).
Duke then explores how hindsight bias amplifies the effects of resulting, as we often believe an outcome was predictable or inevitable after it occurs. We experience “memory creep”, “where the stuff that reveals itself after the fact creeps into your memory of what you knew or was knowable before the decision” (p. 58). Duke recommends using a Knowledge Tracker to circumvent hindsight bias, whereby you document your state of knowledge before and after you make a decision.
Duke then proceeds to what I consider to be the most substantive parts of the book: discussing counterfactual thinking and expected values (though she doesn’t use the term expected value once). She suggests using decision trees to map out possible outcomes from various decisions. More specifically, she encourages the reader to think in terms of specific payoffs and probabilities to make the decision that maximizes the expected return (i.e., expected value), using one’s preferences, goals and values. She argues against using pros vs cons lists because they omit information about magnitude (payoff) and probability of an item occurring. Eminently sensible advice. Like at various points throughout the book, I scratched my head about who her target audience was when she spelled out what a percentage was (p. 120); but I suppose it’s better to be crystal clear than risk losing any part of the audience (?).
Next, Duke dives into the use of probability terms (“probably”, “likely”, “doubtful”, etc.), urging the reader to translate such terms into quantitative probability statements. She offers a useful exercise to calibrate one’s confidence levels using lower and upper bounds—most people display overconfidence when doing this task.
The “inside view” is then compared to the “outside view”—how things look to us vs how things look to others. Cognitive biases like confirmation bias entrench us in the inside view. Motivated reasoning is especially pernicious in blinding us to the outside view, especially for smarter people who are better are spinning a persuasive narrative to convince us we don’t need to change our beliefs. To combat these tendencies, Duke suggests “perspective tracking” to expose us to both the inside and outside views, and to compare the elements that overlap in order to get closer to an ideal decision.
The final three chapters are about mental models we can use to improve our decision-making in a variety of ways. We are introduced to do the “time-accuracy trade-off”, which we ought to consider when making decisions; relatively inconsequential decisions can be made faster, whereas consequential ones need more deliberation. For example, what one has for dinner tonight is almost certainly not going to affect one’s happiness a year, a month or even a week later, so we should probably devote less time to such a decision. Negative thinking is presented to help identify areas that may impede you from attaining a goal. Specifically, Duke proposes using prospective hindsight (looking back from an imagined future at how you got where you did) and premortems (similar, but imagining from the future what caused you to fail in achieving your goal) to attain access to the outside view and avoid cognitive biases.
One unique thing about the book is that exercises are presented throughout the book to put all these tools into practice. I didn’t do all of them, but many are quite useful to practice decision-making.
I’d recommend this above just about any self-help book due to the litany of concrete tools presented throughout. Many such tools are simply about how to think more rationally, scientifically and statistically in general, but with special focus on how these tools can be harnessed to improve decision-making.
Recommended, especially if you’re unfamiliar with many of these concepts and you find yourself struggling to make decisions of some type.
June 18, 2022
Professional poker player Annie Duke presents fresh takes on decision-making in a digestible way.
For instance, she differentiates good decisions from good outcomes. Conflating the two can lead us to take the incorrect learning from an experience. Just because an outcome is positive, doesn't mean that the decision-making led to that; it's useful to diagnose if luck and external factors led to the desired result.
Humans also tend to remember, weigh and avoid negative outcomes more than they celebrate positive ones (guilty!) Therefore, more experience could lead one to choose more and more conservative paths. Being aware of these patterns allows us to more consciously overcome the potential bias.
She provides usable templates for dissecting decisions into learning, and encourages learning from others' mistakes.
Duke also suggests setting yourself up for success through pre-commitment contracts and staying calm in what could be emotionally "hot" situations of failure.
She complements the literature on positive thinking by asking us to consider the power of negative thinking too. In the latter portion of the book, she raises the value of pre-mortems (which I've found value from in my professional life) and backcasting (unveiling if something were to be successful, what would lead to that).
Reading "How to Decide" is like spending time with a master decision-maker who's applied her own clarity of thought to this elegantly presented text. Excellent!
For instance, she differentiates good decisions from good outcomes. Conflating the two can lead us to take the incorrect learning from an experience. Just because an outcome is positive, doesn't mean that the decision-making led to that; it's useful to diagnose if luck and external factors led to the desired result.
Humans also tend to remember, weigh and avoid negative outcomes more than they celebrate positive ones (guilty!) Therefore, more experience could lead one to choose more and more conservative paths. Being aware of these patterns allows us to more consciously overcome the potential bias.
She provides usable templates for dissecting decisions into learning, and encourages learning from others' mistakes.
Duke also suggests setting yourself up for success through pre-commitment contracts and staying calm in what could be emotionally "hot" situations of failure.
She complements the literature on positive thinking by asking us to consider the power of negative thinking too. In the latter portion of the book, she raises the value of pre-mortems (which I've found value from in my professional life) and backcasting (unveiling if something were to be successful, what would lead to that).
Reading "How to Decide" is like spending time with a master decision-maker who's applied her own clarity of thought to this elegantly presented text. Excellent!
February 17, 2021
Some interesting information, but overall very repetitive.
March 3, 2021
Only got a few chapters in
It was too repetitive to go on. I really thought it would be more streamlined. Love the idea but not so much the book.
It was too repetitive to go on. I really thought it would be more streamlined. Love the idea but not so much the book.
September 10, 2023
It's very well written for the general audience to make better quality decisions. Concepts like resulting, quitting vs grit, holo effect, premortems, insider vs outsider view, advice checklists, etc. are expressed in relations to each other with contextual examples. There are useful exercises and checklists along the book to apply the learned knowledge by yourself. Summaries at the end of each chapter are also great for a busy reader. As always in the work of Annie, its recommended readings and references are gold mines. The only complaint of mine is that it feels a bit repetitive since in each chapter; intro example, main explanation, the highlighting of the takeaways, checklist and summary in the end have a lot of overlap.
January 13, 2021
Made me aware of a few good mental models and blindspots with regards to decision making. However, it felt a bit stretched and repetitive examples made it a drag sometimes. I heard it on audible but I think a physical book would be better since it had many exercises to work with.
July 30, 2021
Practical advice on making decisions, choosing paths, and reframing how you and others look at things. Examples were somewhat repetitive—I got sick of hearing about the Seattle Seahawks.
July 25, 2021
good read, book is bit longer that what it could be but worth the read.
exposed me to few new ideas and ways to think about decisions.
exposed me to few new ideas and ways to think about decisions.
June 12, 2022
I appreciate that the author uses lots of relevant examples for many in the past two years. The book is technical and offers systematic approaches over making decisions.
December 19, 2020
Duke was a world class poker player and she gives solid evidence-based advice on how to decide. Most people judge a decision by the result. But that leads to bad learning about decisions.
So:
1. Write down all the potential outcomes
2. Write down the favourable outcome
3. Write down the probability of each outcomes. They cannot add up to more than 100%
4. Write down the range of confidence
Don’t know the probability? Start with base rates. Ask people but without giving away your own opinion.
5. Write down the Payoff
6. Imagine the positive and negative outcome.
7. Do a pre-mortem to find out what would have caused something to fail
8. Play Dr Evil game to see what what ‘death by a thousand cuts’ decisions would have doomed the decision
9. Ask each group member for their opinion by email before meeting; vote for the best decision without revealing how proposed what. Avoid letting the most senior person speaks first
10. For inconsequential outcomes, make a fast decision
11. For close choices, toss a coin
12. Regularly follow up past decisions
13. Keep your option open if possible
14. Know when to quit
15. Hedge your bets
This is very similar to Ray Dalio’s method.
No wonder she won at poker!
So:
1. Write down all the potential outcomes
2. Write down the favourable outcome
3. Write down the probability of each outcomes. They cannot add up to more than 100%
4. Write down the range of confidence
Don’t know the probability? Start with base rates. Ask people but without giving away your own opinion.
5. Write down the Payoff
6. Imagine the positive and negative outcome.
7. Do a pre-mortem to find out what would have caused something to fail
8. Play Dr Evil game to see what what ‘death by a thousand cuts’ decisions would have doomed the decision
9. Ask each group member for their opinion by email before meeting; vote for the best decision without revealing how proposed what. Avoid letting the most senior person speaks first
10. For inconsequential outcomes, make a fast decision
11. For close choices, toss a coin
12. Regularly follow up past decisions
13. Keep your option open if possible
14. Know when to quit
15. Hedge your bets
This is very similar to Ray Dalio’s method.
No wonder she won at poker!
April 17, 2021
This is a great book with all kinds of practical tools for decision making. I've learned a lot from Annie Duke from her Thinking in Bets book, interviews and posts she's made. This book continues to build on probability and decision making skills. In this book she talked about "resulting". This is where the outcome tail is wagging the decision dog. It's a mental shortcut where we use the quality of the outcome to measure the quality of the decision. I've fell for this trap before on the positive and negative side of my decisions. Resulting can work both ways. It can also make you think you've made a bad decision due to a bad outcome, which isn't always true. She uses the example of Pete Carroll, the coach of the Seattle Seahawks against New England Patriots during SuperBowl XLIX when he chose to pass instead of run with seconds left in game. You can read more about that here https://www.annieduke.com/how-to-make... This always resonated with me as Patriot's fan. I wondered why he decided to pass instead of run and used resulting to attribute the bad outcome to bad coaching. If you dig deeper, you see that's clearly not the case. In this book she outlines how being a better decision maker means being a better predictor of a set of possible futures. The book is designed to sharpen your skills and get you closer to having a crystal ball while understanding the way the future will unfold is always uncertain. I liked the section on the "outside vs inside" view. It involves looking for base rates, being eager to hear people disagree with you and looking where the inside and outside view collide. She goes into an example where a Daniel Kahneman study found that weather didn't impact happiness too much. This collides with most people's view and perspective on the weather as it relates to decision making, such as choosing a place to live. She talks about "when the decision is hard, that means it's easy". Think of taking a trip to Paris or Rome. You may obsess about which one will be a better trip, but at the end of the day, they're both great choices. Just flip a coin. She covers the only options test - also known as the sheep in wolves clothing test and the menu strategy, which are both useful for decision making. She covers opportunity costs and knowing when to hold and fold em. There was an interesting concept that both Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson use called the 2-way door decision, which focuses on making decisions where the cost to quit is low. The decision stacking section was particularly useful. This is where you make several lower decisions before you go all in. She mentioned dating as an example of this. You go on many dates before you settle down. There is so much more this book covers. She refers to it as "Waze for decision making" and I agree that it is a great book that teaches many practical decision making strategies to help you become a great decision maker.
July 12, 2021
This book is kind of a sequel to “Thinking in Bets”. The main premise is that most decision making “tools” aren’t reproducible or consistent (I.e using your gut, pro/con list).
This book describes very concrete tools you can use to help in making decisions. A lot of these are based on the non deterministic ideas from “Thinking in Bets”. So there’s a lot about decision trees and thinking about alternate scenarios based on how “luck” contributes to outcomes.
If you liked “Thinking in Bets”, you’ll like this. I only gave it 4 stars because it wasn’t really life changing even though the research was credible and sound. It’s very interactive so I’ll probably come back when I have a decision to make.
This book describes very concrete tools you can use to help in making decisions. A lot of these are based on the non deterministic ideas from “Thinking in Bets”. So there’s a lot about decision trees and thinking about alternate scenarios based on how “luck” contributes to outcomes.
If you liked “Thinking in Bets”, you’ll like this. I only gave it 4 stars because it wasn’t really life changing even though the research was credible and sound. It’s very interactive so I’ll probably come back when I have a decision to make.
February 27, 2021
Did not finish. Got about halfway through, hoping the book would get interesting and it really didn't. The first third talked mostly about biases. I found the section about resulting to be interesting because I hadn't really thought about my bias on decision-making based on the results I had seen. Then it got into the very math-y probability / risk calculation for decision-making. The general framework is good - make a decision tree, indicate likelihood and payoffs, intent, etc. But I just don't know if this really needed to be a book. I didn't feel that the exercises were helpful and generally the writing was boring.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
March 1, 2025
This is a self-help book.
I think I've personally grown out of this genre of books, so my review will negative and whiny. I read this in prep for book club so if you like self-help books and find them valuable, my opinion will probably not be valuable to you since my complaints are around the genre as a whole.
I didn't care for this book. It does the typical self-help book thing where the author tells you that you have a problem that she has a solution to. She then mentions how smart she is with her fancy PhD from [insert prestigious school here] which expertise isn't ever used. Instead, she gives a series of common sense solutions to every day problems along with some pop psychology studies sprinkled in that are referenced in every book of this type (Google Solomon Asch conformity). I also struggle with how the advice is generally applicable to any situation, which is a requirement of self-help books since they need to appeal to largest audience possible. It also means that the advice isn't all that practical to real decision-making issues (the problem she's trying to solve) since decision-making is much harder than a self-help book can solve.
The solutions she provides are things like evaluate the quality of your past decisions, recognize where you had responsibility for the outcome and where you didn't, understand that you have limited knowledge and are biased to believe you know more than you actually do, etc. etc. All this advice is fine, it's just not earth shattering and certainly not relying on her PhD to make these common sense claims. There are also better books out there that discuss things like your bias towards thinking you know more than you do and are backed by research or real world events (see Thinking, Fast and Slow; Being Wrong; The Knowledge Illusion; Black Swan). I think that's a part of my issue with books like this, there are better written books with arguments and studies that the reader can evaluate the claims made by the authors themselves. Self-help books like this need to make vague solutions in order to make sure that no reader will disagree with whatever is inside.
Which unfortunately still occurs anyway when she states that NFL coaches are too conservative when making decisions about going for it on fourth down. She claims that the analytics argues to go for it more often than coaches are willing, and instead they take a too conservative approach by punting. The problem with this over stated myth and the Moneyballification of sports is that "the analytics" ironically isn't a proper analysis of the data. When the analytics states that for 4th and 4, coaches that elect to go for it get a first down most of the time isn't surprising since the coaches that elected to go for it believed they were likely to get a first down. This is a smaller sample of the total population of situations where it's 4th and 4 which also includes the coaches elected not to go for it. A better way to state the data is in narrow situations where coaches believe they can get a first down on a 4th and 4, they are right a majority of the time. That means coaches should go for it on fourth and 4 when they think they can get a first down (no big surprise). If coaches are unsure of their teams ability to get 4 yards for any reason, the proper way to analyze the data, is to not go for it since the data only supports going for it in situations where the coach is confident they can get a first down since the sample of coaches who go for it think they will get a first down. She didn't spend a ton of time on this tidbit, but that's one issue I have with books like this, is her depth is lacking. She just quotes a common refrain made in sports that coaches need to follow numbers and they'll have better success when doing a proper analysis shows blindly following the analytics zeitgeist is actually harmful.
The best part of the book is the workbook activities. She frames them in ways to force her point on you which makes them obnoxious to do at times, but the actual activity and your personal reflection with them is super fun. I enjoyed analyzing why my decision to allow waitresses to choose my food order at restaurants was a good one with no downsides and analyzing why other decisions I struggle with. I don't think her way of framing decisions was particularly revealing to me, but taking the time to be introspective was very valuable and I recommend it. I also enjoyed asking friends their opinion on if Die Hard is a Christmas movie. Super excited to discuss this part of the book for book club, best part for sure.
All in all, I don't recommend this book. If you're looking for advice on how to better your decision-making, I would recommend either a Harvard Business Review subscription which gives you research backed techniques for decision-making in running organizations, dealing with people, etc.
Or you can do the thing that you were probably avoiding doing when you bought a self-help book in the first place: therapy.
I think I've personally grown out of this genre of books, so my review will negative and whiny. I read this in prep for book club so if you like self-help books and find them valuable, my opinion will probably not be valuable to you since my complaints are around the genre as a whole.
I didn't care for this book. It does the typical self-help book thing where the author tells you that you have a problem that she has a solution to. She then mentions how smart she is with her fancy PhD from [insert prestigious school here] which expertise isn't ever used. Instead, she gives a series of common sense solutions to every day problems along with some pop psychology studies sprinkled in that are referenced in every book of this type (Google Solomon Asch conformity). I also struggle with how the advice is generally applicable to any situation, which is a requirement of self-help books since they need to appeal to largest audience possible. It also means that the advice isn't all that practical to real decision-making issues (the problem she's trying to solve) since decision-making is much harder than a self-help book can solve.
The solutions she provides are things like evaluate the quality of your past decisions, recognize where you had responsibility for the outcome and where you didn't, understand that you have limited knowledge and are biased to believe you know more than you actually do, etc. etc. All this advice is fine, it's just not earth shattering and certainly not relying on her PhD to make these common sense claims. There are also better books out there that discuss things like your bias towards thinking you know more than you do and are backed by research or real world events (see Thinking, Fast and Slow; Being Wrong; The Knowledge Illusion; Black Swan). I think that's a part of my issue with books like this, there are better written books with arguments and studies that the reader can evaluate the claims made by the authors themselves. Self-help books like this need to make vague solutions in order to make sure that no reader will disagree with whatever is inside.
Which unfortunately still occurs anyway when she states that NFL coaches are too conservative when making decisions about going for it on fourth down. She claims that the analytics argues to go for it more often than coaches are willing, and instead they take a too conservative approach by punting. The problem with this over stated myth and the Moneyballification of sports is that "the analytics" ironically isn't a proper analysis of the data. When the analytics states that for 4th and 4, coaches that elect to go for it get a first down most of the time isn't surprising since the coaches that elected to go for it believed they were likely to get a first down. This is a smaller sample of the total population of situations where it's 4th and 4 which also includes the coaches elected not to go for it. A better way to state the data is in narrow situations where coaches believe they can get a first down on a 4th and 4, they are right a majority of the time. That means coaches should go for it on fourth and 4 when they think they can get a first down (no big surprise). If coaches are unsure of their teams ability to get 4 yards for any reason, the proper way to analyze the data, is to not go for it since the data only supports going for it in situations where the coach is confident they can get a first down since the sample of coaches who go for it think they will get a first down. She didn't spend a ton of time on this tidbit, but that's one issue I have with books like this, is her depth is lacking. She just quotes a common refrain made in sports that coaches need to follow numbers and they'll have better success when doing a proper analysis shows blindly following the analytics zeitgeist is actually harmful.
The best part of the book is the workbook activities. She frames them in ways to force her point on you which makes them obnoxious to do at times, but the actual activity and your personal reflection with them is super fun. I enjoyed analyzing why my decision to allow waitresses to choose my food order at restaurants was a good one with no downsides and analyzing why other decisions I struggle with. I don't think her way of framing decisions was particularly revealing to me, but taking the time to be introspective was very valuable and I recommend it. I also enjoyed asking friends their opinion on if Die Hard is a Christmas movie. Super excited to discuss this part of the book for book club, best part for sure.
All in all, I don't recommend this book. If you're looking for advice on how to better your decision-making, I would recommend either a Harvard Business Review subscription which gives you research backed techniques for decision-making in running organizations, dealing with people, etc.
Or you can do the thing that you were probably avoiding doing when you bought a self-help book in the first place: therapy.
November 12, 2022
Highly recommended! In the past year I have begun researching the field of Decision Intelligence. This is mostly related to my job as a data scientist as my role is to help teams at my company be more data driven. This book was recommended by quite a few podcasts and blogs on the topic and I found it pretty interesting.
The main takeaway for me was that the way people often evaluate decisions is backwards. We evaluate them based on the outcome of the decision. If we take a job somewhere and we ended up liking the job we think "That was a good decision to take the job!" but if somehow we end up hating the job we think "That was a bad decision to take the job!" Even though the circumstances surrounding the decision in both cases was the exact same. The simplest example of this thinking that the author provides is if you drive through a red light and do not get hit by a car, that was a bad decision yet a good outcome. You would never say it was a good decision to drive through the red light. Conversely, if you drive through a green light and get hit, that was a good decision with a bad outcome.
This line of thinking is problematic and SO prevalent. I see it in myself so much more now and I see it all over the work place. It is so easy to tell a story, after the fact, of why something worked a certain way. Confirmation bias is a drug. This is especially at its worst in politics. Think of any statement about Covid, the economy, etc. and you see this faulty line of thinking.
The author give some good advice around how to improve decision making. I particularly liked her thoughts on pro/cons lists - namely that they typically are not helpful and that they mostly just help us confirm our biases. There are no easy answers to ensure that we always make good decisions but the book was most helpful in helping me be more aware of when I am falling into some of the outcome bias traps.
The main takeaway for me was that the way people often evaluate decisions is backwards. We evaluate them based on the outcome of the decision. If we take a job somewhere and we ended up liking the job we think "That was a good decision to take the job!" but if somehow we end up hating the job we think "That was a bad decision to take the job!" Even though the circumstances surrounding the decision in both cases was the exact same. The simplest example of this thinking that the author provides is if you drive through a red light and do not get hit by a car, that was a bad decision yet a good outcome. You would never say it was a good decision to drive through the red light. Conversely, if you drive through a green light and get hit, that was a good decision with a bad outcome.
This line of thinking is problematic and SO prevalent. I see it in myself so much more now and I see it all over the work place. It is so easy to tell a story, after the fact, of why something worked a certain way. Confirmation bias is a drug. This is especially at its worst in politics. Think of any statement about Covid, the economy, etc. and you see this faulty line of thinking.
The author give some good advice around how to improve decision making. I particularly liked her thoughts on pro/cons lists - namely that they typically are not helpful and that they mostly just help us confirm our biases. There are no easy answers to ensure that we always make good decisions but the book was most helpful in helping me be more aware of when I am falling into some of the outcome bias traps.
February 28, 2023
Este es uno de los mejores libros que he leído de no ficción, creo que tiene mucho que ver con que a mi personalmente me cuesta mucho tomar decisiones.
Annie Duke expone de manera muy práctica y entretenida, incluso con ejemplos, todos los aspectos para tener un proceso de decisión robusto y que te ayude a mejorar la forma en la que tomas decisiones. La primera parte deja claro por qué buenos resultados no necesariamente vienen de buenas decisiones y viceversa. Explica el rol de la aleatoriedad o la suerte y por qué es importante tomarla en cuenta para aprender a tomar decisiones.
En el libro te da herramientas para poner en práctica todos los temas de los que explica algo, y te dice cómo usarlas y por qué te conviene.
Algunos de los temas que trata son:
- Cómo evitar dejarte engañar por los resultados de tus decisiones
- Cómo evitar el sesgo de confirmación
- Cómo evitar ver el mundo sólo desde tu perspectiva
- Cómo evitar el sesgo de la comprensión en retrospectiva
- Cómo evitar contaminar a otros con tus ideas
- Cómo pedir buen feedback sobre tus decisiones
- Cómo y cuándo acelerar o retrasar las decisiones
Cada uno de los puntos trae un resumen muy efectivo y un lista de verificación que te permite saber si estás tomando lo más importante en cuenta. Además, cada capítulo tiene ejercicios prácticos que te ayudarán a comprender las ideas principales de manera entretenida.
Algunas de las ideas que más me impactaron tienen que ver con el pensamiento probabilista y la necesidad de estimar la probabilidad de que algo pase o no pase, junto con el cálculo de qué tan deseable es para ti. Además la idea de que tú mismo te autosaboteas con decisiones que parecen fácilmente explicables en el corto plazo, pero en el largo plazo son desastrosas para cumplir con tus objetivos, ella le llama el juego del Dr. Maldad o Dr. Malo.
Creo que es un libro muy necesario para todos aquellos dedicados a tomar decisiones importantes
Annie Duke expone de manera muy práctica y entretenida, incluso con ejemplos, todos los aspectos para tener un proceso de decisión robusto y que te ayude a mejorar la forma en la que tomas decisiones. La primera parte deja claro por qué buenos resultados no necesariamente vienen de buenas decisiones y viceversa. Explica el rol de la aleatoriedad o la suerte y por qué es importante tomarla en cuenta para aprender a tomar decisiones.
En el libro te da herramientas para poner en práctica todos los temas de los que explica algo, y te dice cómo usarlas y por qué te conviene.
Algunos de los temas que trata son:
- Cómo evitar dejarte engañar por los resultados de tus decisiones
- Cómo evitar el sesgo de confirmación
- Cómo evitar ver el mundo sólo desde tu perspectiva
- Cómo evitar el sesgo de la comprensión en retrospectiva
- Cómo evitar contaminar a otros con tus ideas
- Cómo pedir buen feedback sobre tus decisiones
- Cómo y cuándo acelerar o retrasar las decisiones
Cada uno de los puntos trae un resumen muy efectivo y un lista de verificación que te permite saber si estás tomando lo más importante en cuenta. Además, cada capítulo tiene ejercicios prácticos que te ayudarán a comprender las ideas principales de manera entretenida.
Algunas de las ideas que más me impactaron tienen que ver con el pensamiento probabilista y la necesidad de estimar la probabilidad de que algo pase o no pase, junto con el cálculo de qué tan deseable es para ti. Además la idea de que tú mismo te autosaboteas con decisiones que parecen fácilmente explicables en el corto plazo, pero en el largo plazo son desastrosas para cumplir con tus objetivos, ella le llama el juego del Dr. Maldad o Dr. Malo.
Creo que es un libro muy necesario para todos aquellos dedicados a tomar decisiones importantes
May 12, 2025
I’ve come to believe that life is really just a series of decisions that lead to some outcomes.
Some of those can be handled through habit—like working out, choosing what to eat, reading regularly. These are decisions you can almost automate, and they still push you toward your goals.
But then there are the tougher ones— planning a trip, hosting people, figuring out what to do with free time, deciding what new thing to learn, or asking someone out. These are the ones that make you stop and think. And honestly, I think it’s these decisions that move you forward the most—they feel like step functions in life.
The real shift for me was realizing that it’s not about making the “right” decision every time. It’s about making good decisions faster. That’s the whole startup mindset: fail fast, learn, and keep moving.
I’ve been struggling with that—still do—but this book gave me some solid frameworks to actually think through choices in a smarter way. The biggest value for me? It helps shorten the cycle time between thinking and doing.
If I can make 2x more decisions in the same time period as others, I can probably get at least 1.5x more done. And this book gives you the tools to do that—without being reckless. You still think, but you don’t get stuck.
It’s not about being right every time. It’s about being more right than wrong, and doing it at speed. This book really helps build that muscle.
Do I fully get it yet? Nope. But I plan to keep coming back to it whenever I need help deciding fast—and hopefully well.
Some of those can be handled through habit—like working out, choosing what to eat, reading regularly. These are decisions you can almost automate, and they still push you toward your goals.
But then there are the tougher ones— planning a trip, hosting people, figuring out what to do with free time, deciding what new thing to learn, or asking someone out. These are the ones that make you stop and think. And honestly, I think it’s these decisions that move you forward the most—they feel like step functions in life.
The real shift for me was realizing that it’s not about making the “right” decision every time. It’s about making good decisions faster. That’s the whole startup mindset: fail fast, learn, and keep moving.
I’ve been struggling with that—still do—but this book gave me some solid frameworks to actually think through choices in a smarter way. The biggest value for me? It helps shorten the cycle time between thinking and doing.
If I can make 2x more decisions in the same time period as others, I can probably get at least 1.5x more done. And this book gives you the tools to do that—without being reckless. You still think, but you don’t get stuck.
It’s not about being right every time. It’s about being more right than wrong, and doing it at speed. This book really helps build that muscle.
Do I fully get it yet? Nope. But I plan to keep coming back to it whenever I need help deciding fast—and hopefully well.
May 8, 2022
This is a great book about the process of decision-making. I believe this is a process where most can learn a lot and with small efforts getting better decisions.
This book is NOT a theory book. This is a hardcore practical and actionable book that will change your mind and process instantly. Especially if you do the work and assignments supplied in each chapter.
If you know the theory of bias and noise from Daniel Kahneman and the research on the expertise of experts by Philip E. Tetlock. Then you'll know we are bad decision-making. This book will course-correct out process. Whether we're making decisions as individuals or as a team.
My personal best takeaway is the checklist for feedback. I should build such a checklist before giving feedback and I should not give feedback on a topic unless all points on the checklist have been checked.
Thank you to Annie Duke for a lot of great tools and exercises.
This book is NOT a theory book. This is a hardcore practical and actionable book that will change your mind and process instantly. Especially if you do the work and assignments supplied in each chapter.
If you know the theory of bias and noise from Daniel Kahneman and the research on the expertise of experts by Philip E. Tetlock. Then you'll know we are bad decision-making. This book will course-correct out process. Whether we're making decisions as individuals or as a team.
My personal best takeaway is the checklist for feedback. I should build such a checklist before giving feedback and I should not give feedback on a topic unless all points on the checklist have been checked.
Thank you to Annie Duke for a lot of great tools and exercises.
March 14, 2025
Very nice book that tries to explore the science and factor affecting having good decisions.
I am capturing main ideas here:
* Focus on Process, Not Outcome. Sometimes you have a very good structured process but outcome is oddly bad. This does not mean you have bad decision!
* Identifying and Mitigating Bias
* Understanding Probabilities ... this helps a lot in management and sales decisions, for example. You need to think in terms of likelihoods and ranges of possibilities.
* Utilizing Decision-Making Tools. The book offers several frameworks to help analyzing decisions, considering potential outcomes, and evaluate risks. This includes methods for:
* Clarifying preferences.
* Assessing payoffs.
* Estimating probabilities.
* Performing premortems.
* Learning from Past Decisions
In essence, "How to Decide" provides a structured approach to decision-making, make more informed and confident choices in an uncertain world.
I am capturing main ideas here:
* Focus on Process, Not Outcome. Sometimes you have a very good structured process but outcome is oddly bad. This does not mean you have bad decision!
* Identifying and Mitigating Bias
* Understanding Probabilities ... this helps a lot in management and sales decisions, for example. You need to think in terms of likelihoods and ranges of possibilities.
* Utilizing Decision-Making Tools. The book offers several frameworks to help analyzing decisions, considering potential outcomes, and evaluate risks. This includes methods for:
* Clarifying preferences.
* Assessing payoffs.
* Estimating probabilities.
* Performing premortems.
* Learning from Past Decisions
In essence, "How to Decide" provides a structured approach to decision-making, make more informed and confident choices in an uncertain world.
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