Thread
$ENVX
@AlderLaneEggs
@joceyreyes209
1/24
A few weeks ago I invited recent followers and $ENVX investors to DM me with any Qs. These fell largely into two camps, one of which was competition. A🧵
An interesting area cause $ENVX has never said that much about it, other than...
@AlderLaneEggs
@joceyreyes209
1/24
A few weeks ago I invited recent followers and $ENVX investors to DM me with any Qs. These fell largely into two camps, one of which was competition. A🧵
An interesting area cause $ENVX has never said that much about it, other than...
2/24
that it's all about displacing the incumbent li-ion guys. But what about the other 'next gen' players?
I have looked at some DIRECT competitors: Amprius, QuantumScape, Storedot, IonBlox,
& three INDIRECT competitors: Sila, Group14 & One D.
that it's all about displacing the incumbent li-ion guys. But what about the other 'next gen' players?
I have looked at some DIRECT competitors: Amprius, QuantumScape, Storedot, IonBlox,
& three INDIRECT competitors: Sila, Group14 & One D.
3/24
When it comes to assessing competition I'm first of all interested in their market focus and engagement, not their technology. They might have great tech but if they're not actively competing for mobile device business they are not a threat to Enovix at this stage.
When it comes to assessing competition I'm first of all interested in their market focus and engagement, not their technology. They might have great tech but if they're not actively competing for mobile device business they are not a threat to Enovix at this stage.
4/24
So here's the thing: NOT ONE of the direct competitors is nearly as focused on the mobile device market as Enovix.
Most have no obvious presence in it at all. Whatever the merits of their technology they are focused on the EV and/or aviation markets.
So here's the thing: NOT ONE of the direct competitors is nearly as focused on the mobile device market as Enovix.
Most have no obvious presence in it at all. Whatever the merits of their technology they are focused on the EV and/or aviation markets.
5/24
I am reminded here of TJ's comments from the 3 Jan call:
"that funnel...the other guys can bullshit all they want...you got about 100 customers to put through a 3 yr funnel. That’s what we’re doing, that’s what matters, that’s what builds value."
I am reminded here of TJ's comments from the 3 Jan call:
"that funnel...the other guys can bullshit all they want...you got about 100 customers to put through a 3 yr funnel. That’s what we’re doing, that’s what matters, that’s what builds value."
6/24
NB. My view of the above players is summarised here only because I discovered in the course of writing this note that there seems to be a limit to thread size (25), and I ran out of runway.
If you're interested in the additional colour here DM me.
NB. My view of the above players is summarised here only because I discovered in the course of writing this note that there seems to be a limit to thread size (25), and I ran out of runway.
If you're interested in the additional colour here DM me.
7/24
When it comes to next gen players it's also fair to say there are a LOT of competing technical visions out there. From Sila's White Paper:
'Solid state batteries are likely to be irrelevant to the revolution, a niche player at best.'
Best not tell $QS shareholders that...
When it comes to next gen players it's also fair to say there are a LOT of competing technical visions out there. From Sila's White Paper:
'Solid state batteries are likely to be irrelevant to the revolution, a niche player at best.'
Best not tell $QS shareholders that...
8/24
Sila, One D & Group14 are more interesting. They produce an anode material that is blended with graphite to varying levels depending on customer preference. These guys, in effect, help the li-ion incumbents get more bangs for their graphite anode buck.
Sila, One D & Group14 are more interesting. They produce an anode material that is blended with graphite to varying levels depending on customer preference. These guys, in effect, help the li-ion incumbents get more bangs for their graphite anode buck.
9/24
Significantly, their solutions are true 'drop-ins' i.e. the battery maker doesn't need to replace existing machinery or make new capex investments.
Sila is mainly focused on EV and has a deal with Mercedes, but quotes a wearables customer (Whoop) on its website.
Significantly, their solutions are true 'drop-ins' i.e. the battery maker doesn't need to replace existing machinery or make new capex investments.
Sila is mainly focused on EV and has a deal with Mercedes, but quotes a wearables customer (Whoop) on its website.
10/24
My understanding is that this was a 'proof of concept' rather than an indicator of mobile devices being a target mkt.
Their White Paper suggests as much:
'The best way to tell if a battery can work in an automotive sector is to see it work in the consumer sector first'.
My understanding is that this was a 'proof of concept' rather than an indicator of mobile devices being a target mkt.
Their White Paper suggests as much:
'The best way to tell if a battery can work in an automotive sector is to see it work in the consumer sector first'.
11/24
While their website suggests some ambition to be a serious player in mobile devices the supporting evidence is not there yet.
One D is purely focused on EV & like Sila, has a 'nanowires' solution. They are backed by GM & in Sept. '22 they announced a joint R&D agreement.
While their website suggests some ambition to be a serious player in mobile devices the supporting evidence is not there yet.
One D is purely focused on EV & like Sila, has a 'nanowires' solution. They are backed by GM & in Sept. '22 they announced a joint R&D agreement.
12/24
G14 has ATL, the world's largest battery maker, as a backer, and on 28 February announced a deal to supply their anode material (SCC55) to ATL to be used in mobile phones 'starting later this year.'
G14 also has an EV relationship with Porsche, another backer.
G14 has ATL, the world's largest battery maker, as a backer, and on 28 February announced a deal to supply their anode material (SCC55) to ATL to be used in mobile phones 'starting later this year.'
G14 also has an EV relationship with Porsche, another backer.
13/24
Given ATL's size, it has a lot to lose from a successful Enovix. So what impact might the deal with G14 have on Enovix?
Enovix has previously stated it has a lead of c. 5 yrs. over the competition.
Logically this move by G14/ATL should reduce this somewhat.
Given ATL's size, it has a lot to lose from a successful Enovix. So what impact might the deal with G14 have on Enovix?
Enovix has previously stated it has a lead of c. 5 yrs. over the competition.
Logically this move by G14/ATL should reduce this somewhat.
14/24
My working assumption however is that although SCC55 will improve the performance of graphite anode li-ion batteries it's still going to fall well short of Enovix. For one thing Enovix's anode is 100% active silicon & Group14/ATL can't offer that, or 'Brakeflow'.
My working assumption however is that although SCC55 will improve the performance of graphite anode li-ion batteries it's still going to fall well short of Enovix. For one thing Enovix's anode is 100% active silicon & Group14/ATL can't offer that, or 'Brakeflow'.
15/24
If one recalls Raj's remarks on the Q4 cc it's hard to see Enovix's technical lead being under serious threat at least in the medium term:
"It's not often you find the technology where you're that much better than the competition in terms of performance numbers."
If one recalls Raj's remarks on the Q4 cc it's hard to see Enovix's technical lead being under serious threat at least in the medium term:
"It's not often you find the technology where you're that much better than the competition in terms of performance numbers."
16/24
Furthermore, although the G14/ATL PR is only weeks old I expect SCC55 is already known to the battery industry. Yet, Enovix's design wins rose sharply in Q4.
We also know from the Q4 cc that Enovix has scope to improve it's battery performance, Raj again:
Furthermore, although the G14/ATL PR is only weeks old I expect SCC55 is already known to the battery industry. Yet, Enovix's design wins rose sharply in Q4.
We also know from the Q4 cc that Enovix has scope to improve it's battery performance, Raj again:
17/24
"we have significant technology in our laboratories here, that has a lot of headroom to even increase performance metrics way beyond what we are actually now able to sample"
Aside from performance the other weapon incumbents have is price.
"we have significant technology in our laboratories here, that has a lot of headroom to even increase performance metrics way beyond what we are actually now able to sample"
Aside from performance the other weapon incumbents have is price.
18/24
To the extent that new anode materials improve the price/perf., & are 'drop in' solutions, it will maintain pressure on Enovix to improve batt. perf. & reduce costs.
That said, it should be noted that in mob. devices (unlike EV) the batt. is a relatively small % of the...
To the extent that new anode materials improve the price/perf., & are 'drop in' solutions, it will maintain pressure on Enovix to improve batt. perf. & reduce costs.
That said, it should be noted that in mob. devices (unlike EV) the batt. is a relatively small % of the...
19/24
...overall component cost so my guess is that any ATL price reductions will likely have a limited effect on 'switching' decisions unless accompanied by major performance improvement, which I question at this stage.
Notwithstanding all of this, & despite $ENVX 's tech...
...overall component cost so my guess is that any ATL price reductions will likely have a limited effect on 'switching' decisions unless accompanied by major performance improvement, which I question at this stage.
Notwithstanding all of this, & despite $ENVX 's tech...
20/24
...lead, locating Fab2 in Malaysia plus recent senior hires in Procurement and Finance suggests @EnovixBatteries is VERY much aware of the need to drive down costs:
'it better be cheap and it better have high yield and make a lot of batteries'
(TJ Rodgers, 3 Jan call).
...lead, locating Fab2 in Malaysia plus recent senior hires in Procurement and Finance suggests @EnovixBatteries is VERY much aware of the need to drive down costs:
'it better be cheap and it better have high yield and make a lot of batteries'
(TJ Rodgers, 3 Jan call).
21/24
So, to sum up, imho, Enovix has been telling it straight: their competition really is the incumbent li-ion guys, albeit aided some by a few silicon anode material suppliers.
The guys saying 'competition is coming' have got it wrong. Competition is here & now.
So, to sum up, imho, Enovix has been telling it straight: their competition really is the incumbent li-ion guys, albeit aided some by a few silicon anode material suppliers.
The guys saying 'competition is coming' have got it wrong. Competition is here & now.
22/24
People can debate competing technologies and spec sheets all they want.
CUSTOMERS will decide which tech wins the day and the acid test is customer engagement and the sales pipeline.
The size & breadth of $ENVX 's sales funnel, the profile of these companies, and their...
People can debate competing technologies and spec sheets all they want.
CUSTOMERS will decide which tech wins the day and the acid test is customer engagement and the sales pipeline.
The size & breadth of $ENVX 's sales funnel, the profile of these companies, and their...
23/24
...progress through qualification, says they are miles ahead of any other next gen player in the mobile devices space. And, it also says they will take market share from li-ion incumbents like ATL.
...progress through qualification, says they are miles ahead of any other next gen player in the mobile devices space. And, it also says they will take market share from li-ion incumbents like ATL.
24/24
Going fwd EV looks more challenging but Enovix's focus rn is Gen2 & turning the sales funnel into po's.
If it continues to execute well from here, imo it will have significant SP growth, just from progress in mobile devices, see attached link.
Going fwd EV looks more challenging but Enovix's focus rn is Gen2 & turning the sales funnel into po's.
If it continues to execute well from here, imo it will have significant SP growth, just from progress in mobile devices, see attached link.
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Marc Cohodes @AlderLaneEggs
·
Apr 4, 2023
Wonderful read