Recent commentary on the Russo-Ukrainian War has been dominated by four questions.

First, when will the Ukrainian counter-offensive start? President Zelensky has urged patience, as he is waiting for more arms deliveries from the West. His recent visits to Italy, Germany, France, and the UK have yielded some impressive promises of equipment and ammunition to come, while also suggesting that the Ukrainians are preparing for an offensive that may not be short and sharp but drawn out.

Second, when will the long battle for Bakhmut end? The Russians have ground their way towards their final takeover of the city, street by street. Exactly what the Wagner mercenaries will do with this utterly destroyed city is not clear, as Russian regular units have retreated to more defensible (‘favourable’ they put it) positions and Ukrainian forces move along the flanks. Yevgeny Prigozhin raising the Wagner flag over the depopulated rubble of Bakhmut but with nowhere left to advance may not quite rank in historic significance to Napoleon and his army getting stranded in an empty and burnt out Moscow in 1812, but they both demonstrate how apparent military victories can turn out to be costly, pointless, and eventually counter-productive.