The memo that leaked from Google (which is real) makes the case for an open future for AI. I have increasing conviction that aspects of this future will unfold but I disagree with the conclusion. I believe we are heading to a world where there’s an oligopoly for the largest, most capable models accompanied by a thriving open ecosystem of smaller models.

Let’s get this out of the way upfront: I’m an OpenAI shareholder; I’m now actively investing into the future I foresee as a VC at Spark. I’m biased, have conflict etc etc.