Thread: 1/5 Putin has done a classic bait and switch: frightened us with one thing so that we accept another. The further dismemberment of Ukraine, and an avowed Russian military presence there: in effect, two more Crimeas.

2/5 We should have started sanctions months ago (years, really). Instead we have waited for a "trigger" event. Putin just has to calibrate his behaviour to be complicated (Donetsk Shmonetsk -- who's heard of these places anyway)? and sub-threshold.

3/5 Putin calculates (probably correctly) that the West will huff and puff but no more. if so, he walks away with a geopolitical trophy at minimal cost. (and don't forget other gains, ie Belarus). He's also exposed weakwilledness and disunity, and Ukraine's loneliness.

4/5 We need a huge, narrative-shifting, decisive reaction right now: EU/NATO accession path for UA clarified, big financial/military aid, expulsion of Russian ambassadors, cancel NS2, sweeping visa bans/asset freezes, delisting of Rosneft etc from London stock exchange

5/5 If we don't do that, we will be back here again in days/weeks/months and in a far worse position. And don't forget, Ukrainians pay in blood and bereavement for our naïveté, greed and cowardice.