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Okay, Ontario. We need to talk about voter turnout. And we need to talk about the role of campaign strategy, constant polling, and horse race/infotainment journalism. Fewer than half of eligible voters showed up. And that is neither normal nor good enough. Spicy 𧔠alert. /1
With a few ballots still left to count, the numbers look like they will settle in somewhere between 44 and 45%. Thatâs about four points lower than the previous all time low of 48%. That makes this the least participated-in election in Ontario history. /2
After several years of turmoil and lots of serious issues on the table, that number should seem odd to anyone paying attention. But it really isnât when you look more closely. So what contributed to this? Letâs have a look at the most likely suspects. /3
1) Voter stress. People are stretched pretty thin these days. Itâs been a tough two years and many people are in survival mode. Thatâs not good for engagement at the best of times. People are having a hard time keeping up with all sorts of things and so, politics⊠nyah. /4
2) Terrible campaign strategy. When people are stressed and busy, you canât wait for them to come to you. The two opposition parties mainly relied on Ford making mistakes and driving voters into their arms. Didnât happen. He stayed out of voterâs sight lines and smiled a lot. /5
Itâs hard to capitalize on your opponentâs mistakes when they donât even show up to the rink. So the NDP and Liberals needed to adapt. And they didnât. There was no urgency and no clear focus for the bubbling rage of those who were paying attention. /6
3) Terrible leaders. Iâm not sure what the parties were thinking, but these were not the leaders for this or any other moment. They donât inspire or relate well. Theyâre not magnetic. When people are stressed and busy (see 1) you need to be attention grabbing. In a good way. /7
4) Bad campaign strategy, part 2. Fighting over whoâs the better strategic choice, constantly, and fibbing about it, constantly, is not the way to convince people you know whatâs what. It makes you look petty and weasely and have nothing more to offer than your entitlement. /8
5) Polling and coverage of said polls. Election coverage has become a lazy affair. Public opinion firms looking for clout publish polls. Constantly. Media, strapped for time, resources and expertise, cover them. Daily. Result: a constant barrage of numbers and not much else. /9
That barrage does a bunch of things. If they are consistent (they were) it convinces people that the result is baked in. Why vote when you know itâs futile? See: learned helplessness. /10
The constant barrage of the same numbers also activates something in our heads called goal sufficiency. If we talk too much about the inevitable thing, our brain convinces us we have already done the inevitable thing. We are easily convinced. See: New Years resolutions. /11
6) Election coverage. Itâs bad. Really bad. Much media coverage is all starting to sound like water cooler gossip. Sports, entertainment, life and death policy-making⊠it all gets the rapid talking, wide-eyed, âOh my godâ eye roll treatment. Itâs not good. Itâs bad. /12
Politics isnât sports. Itâs not. Stop trying to make it sound like Sportsdesk. We donât vote every four years to turn over a small piece of our personal autonomy to Connor McDavid (although, I suspect heâd be pretty good at stick handling issues). See? Itâs annoying. Stop. /13
7) Analysis. We need people who actually know what they are talking about to lead the charge here. Not people who used to play for red or blue or orange (or still do, FFS⊠staring hard at all media outlets đ ). It brings too much spin and not enough substance. /14
Bottom line: We need to take the whole thing more seriously and we need to build our institutions to support that effort, making it as easy as possible for people to get the information they need and to participate. It canât just devolve into another amusing hobby. Please. /15
Itâs time for a political makeover that amounts to more than softer colours for Andrea and laser eye surgery for Steve. But itâs hard to see how. The parties are a disaster and the media is just scrambling to outcompete beauty shots on the âgram. Maybe a game show⊠/end
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Vanmala Subramaniam @VanmalaS
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Jun 3, 2022
This is a super excellent thread.