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One of my favorite Jan '22 observations - despite seeing it ~clearly, I've logged some serious learnings already this bear 🧵
One interesting thing that happened to me in Q1 '22 was I started feeling a little crazy bc so many crypto people were still frothing and I'd been feeling bearish for ~half a year, so I started to doubt myself and ask if I was suffering from OG PTSD.
For example, the first dead cat bounce off the late January '22 puke was pretty difficult for me.
But in retrospect, it's obvious -- an early bear market rally is going to be vicious to the upside bc there are still a lot of bullish believers in the market.
But in retrospect, it's obvious -- an early bear market rally is going to be vicious to the upside bc there are still a lot of bullish believers in the market.
Can feel the relief rallies getting weaker and weaker as blood drains out of the overzealous.
Another learning would be to just give things *at least* 6 months once the parabolas are clearly broken.
No action can be the best action, even if action feels productive and relieves restlessness.
Or take the lightest action possible, just to prime the pump.
No action can be the best action, even if action feels productive and relieves restlessness.
Or take the lightest action possible, just to prime the pump.
As a professional allocator in a venture structure I can't afford to miss, and believe the less costly mistake is nibbling a little expensive & then working my way down, rather than waiting too long & not getting position sizes full up.
Position sizing key & underappreciated.
Position sizing key & underappreciated.
There is also a sneaky tendency to deploy more capital at higher prices, and then as things get scary, reign in the amount of capital deployed. Work to at least make it even, and if you're really good, use more capital the lower we go.
Requires careful observation of yourself.
Requires careful observation of yourself.
I'm learning a better balance between FOMO and FOBI (fear of being in) each bear, and each time I'm more patient, but reflect that I can do with even more patience. Aging has a way of doing that for me, luckily 😅
Getting disciplined with tranches, where your average price will be w/ each tranche, what your position sizes will be in $ and % of network terms, what multiples and cash on cash that gives you at future price targets, all helps keep you focused, optimistic, and sane.
Also, planning for shock scenarios, and making sure that you always save capital for those scenarios.
I even plot some tranches that I don't expect to have to use (they're greyed out in my spreadsheets), and the position size will be a little smaller if not hit.
I even plot some tranches that I don't expect to have to use (they're greyed out in my spreadsheets), and the position size will be a little smaller if not hit.
For example, if something goes ~100x the year before, at least plot what that thing looks like 95% down from its peak.
People will always tell you it's not possible from the vantage of a bull, but it never ceases to amaze how we grind our way down there or at least close.
People will always tell you it's not possible from the vantage of a bull, but it never ceases to amaze how we grind our way down there or at least close.
And if those insane lows are hit, I want to make sure I'm able to deploy chunks of capital as those are the most amazing buys in retrospect. One of the worst feelings is being tapped out at the bottom.
You may say, "Well, you're rich and have unlimited capital." Everyone has limited capital, and capital is very divisible. If you are disciplined, you could divide up a $100 position size in tranches similar to how I size up an 8-figure position.
Lastly, not letting any "public calls" trap your mind into sticking to those calls if the data starts to go against you.
Twitter is ephemeral, who cares.
I used to care too much.
This also applies as we rise into a bull, and keeping your mind open to new entrants / coins.
I used to care too much.
This also applies as we rise into a bull, and keeping your mind open to new entrants / coins.
An example of a thought amendment, I'd been thinking 2H '22 would be the bottom, but that was a sign of my own overzealousness.
While 2H '22 may give us our first bottom wick, 2023 is starting to look rougher than anticipated & so I'm starting to draw out my horizon & plan.
While 2H '22 may give us our first bottom wick, 2023 is starting to look rougher than anticipated & so I'm starting to draw out my horizon & plan.
The more I learn about macro (and it really is endless learning), the more I realize what a pickle we are in.
This is a good place to start if you're currently feeling lost: www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ&t=3264s
This is a good place to start if you're currently feeling lost: www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ&t=3264s
That's all for now, thanks for reading my mental, permissionless, journal.
We all make mistakes -- the key is to apply your learnings, try again, and never give up.
Or take a break if your mind is a mess -- this won't be V-shaped, you have some time.
We all make mistakes -- the key is to apply your learnings, try again, and never give up.
Or take a break if your mind is a mess -- this won't be V-shaped, you have some time.
