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. @EPBResearch coincident employment index just went negative [payrolls, u3, hours worked, etc].
Employment the most lagging indicator (ex inflation) and fading pretty fast.
Confirmed by full time employment (-ve 3mos in a row), as well as daily treasury wage withholding data.
Employment the most lagging indicator (ex inflation) and fading pretty fast.
Confirmed by full time employment (-ve 3mos in a row), as well as daily treasury wage withholding data.
Wage withholding data below:
NFP being held up by multiple job holders. Inflation forcing folks to pick up additional jobs and reenter the labor force.
Seasonal adjustments seem to be overstating data as well. Looks super funky. h/t @MikaelSarwe