Thread by Alex Stamos

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I think @elonmusk has made a huge mistake, making himself the global face of content moderation at a critical moment of struggle with governments, while maintaining massive personal exposure to challenging countries.
Just finished a conversation on this with @evelyndouek that will be posted here tonight, but this thread can be a preview. Turns out that @StanfordLaw doesn't have a 24x7 podcast operations center. Not yet.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moderated-content/id1646510125
Evelyn and I discussed the immediate domestic impacts, including the possible return of DJT. Twitter’s rules are still untouched, but there has been an immediate uptick in hate speech, likely driven from other platforms.
Musk made himself the personal face of Twitter’s content policies at an important time in the US, with several cases pending at SCOTUS. He seems to be learning why Zuck paid $250M+ to build an external Oversight Board.

But most of our discussion was on the international impact. Twitter has been at the forefront of stopping covert government operations to manipulate social media, as well as an early adopter of labeling overt state media.

Recent example in India (PDF):
stacks.stanford.edu/file/druid:zs105tw7107/20220921%20India%20takedown.pdf
Balancing local laws, human rights, and fiduciary responsibility is a constant challenge for tech companies. This will be much worse for Elon, who has most of his personal wealth tied up in a company that makes and sells regulated, physical products around the world.
This conflict is going to be most prominent in the People’s Republic of China. Tesla makes cars and batteries in Shanghai, and recognized ~$5B in revenue last *quarter* in China.

Latest 10-Q:
tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/WTULXQ_TSLA_Q3_2022_Update_KPK2Y7.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=i...
Twitter has been aggressively fending off attempts by PRC intelligence services to operate in the US political sphere, but just two days ago @Mandiant documented a PRC influence operation aimed at manipulating the US election.


www.mandiant.com/resources/blog/prc-dragonbridge-influence-elections
With a 1/4 of current revenue and a much larger fraction of Tesla’s future free cash flow at stake in China, what is Musk going to do with these public requests to lift labeling on state propagandists and private asks to stop looking for covert influence campaigns?
This is truly an unprecedented situation. Facebook and Google are blocked in the PRC and their CEOs do not have massive personal wealth tied up there. But there have been situations where these companies have flirted with the PRC, leading to employee leaks and protests.
The closest equivalent is Apple: skillful PRC salami-slicing since Apple entered the Chinese phone market in 2012 has led to Apple doing more for the Chinese Communist Party than any other tech company.
www.nytimes.com/2021/05/17/technology/apple-china-censorship-data.html
This pattern will be repeated around the world. Brazil is having an election this weekend, and observers are afraid that Bolsonaro will not respect a loss at the polls. Musk met with him and discussed Brazil’s critical supply of minerals for Tesla’s batteries earlier this year.
In short, Musk has put himself in an untenable situation. He has already publicly committed himself to meddling in Twitter’s platform policies in an unprecedented manner while also presumably thinking he can continue to fly around the world and shake the hands of authoritarians.
He bought Twitter at a massive overvaluation, and now has a fiduciary responsibility to his junior partners and to service the massive debt he took on. He can't easily walk away; an IPO or sale for a profit will require massive revenue growth and the macro situation improving.
The people who should really be angry are $TSLA shareholders. The company they partially own has now become the key hostage for countries looking to control the future of online speech.

How does the conversation with Modi go now?

www.thehindu.com/business/tesla-india-why-car-not-in-india-yet/article65490993.ece
Things to watch for:
- Elimination of state media labels
- Cutoff of research agreements and APIs
- Shutdown of Twitter's foreign influence op archive
- Resignations of key security, threat intel leaders

All things we discuss in tonight's podcast! Coming soon!
Probably shouldn't have fired those policy and legal executives who have spent more time than anyone fighting governments to protect anonymous speech.


After the new content moderation board meets, right?

This is exactly what I'm talking about. He's preening for the fanboys, but the KSA, PRC or UAE might see his involvement in day-to-day decisions as serious.


A great new meme format just dropped.

Our podcast discussing the personal and geopolitical risks Elon is taking with the Twitter purchase is up!

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/musk-flips-the-bird/id1646510125?i=1000584305045
Wow.

Twitter has never had the most compelling advertising product, so the affinity these CMOs have for the platform is probably minimal. Things are going to move more quickly than I expected towards higher engagement as people tune into the spectacle but lower revenue.


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