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Paulo Macro
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Speculation is the search for truth in price and time. Not investment advice.
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Oct 15, 2023
Thread on UST funding and RRP. Backdrop: US treasury debt outstanding has gone from $22.7T to $33.2T over the past four years (9/30/19 to 9/30/23), and 30.9T a year ago. So +$2.3T 1y and +$10T 4y. The -12m deficit is $1.7T per below, as of 9/30 (Tre
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May 9, 2023
USD. Some clarification on my views is required because I get a lot of questions and confusion here - “wait you are bearish into, or bearish after the debt ceiling? But does that resolution matter? Absolutely nobody cares about the debt ceiling.” Le
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Mar 13, 2023
A lot of people weren’t there in 2008 or otherwise forget or misremember, but the Fed caught a lot of shit for Bear Stearns because they guaranteed $30bln of the worst pile of MBS sht you can imagine in exchange for JPM $2/sh bid — the BSC Madison Av
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Feb 19, 2023
A thread on where the US stands in its ongoing desire to learn Portuguese🧵 My bro @hkuppy has flagged an interesting development that I hadn’t fully appreciated in the context of #bigflip (hattip @INArteCarloDoss) until this weekend. Namely, the US
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Oct 14, 2022
Where systemic risk breeds crash risk - brief 🧵 GS flagging how 43% of options being traded expire in less than 24 hours. The market is now a toy for options daytraders. 1/7
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Apr 17, 2022
1/8 So I have been thinking quite a bit about Japan and the JPY / JGB 10y YCC setup here a lot in recent weeks, particularly in the context of how SNB bungled EURCHF years ago. I have an old expression I call “testing the fence.” This is now highl
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Mar 19, 2022
Friends tell me Blackstone already walked out on Trafi. Capital and LOCs is exceedingly hard to come by in this space and part of the reason you saw oil pricing blow out to $130 and then collapse back below $100. A thread 1/n twitter.com/MenthorQpro/
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Mar 11, 2022
Time for a systemic risk update thread from the Cloudbear… US stocks just don’t seem to release, so only a matter of time until all those puts result in dealers doing their gamma jam higher right? Not so fast…
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