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Cullen Roche

orcamgroup.com
5 Followers
community-curated profile

I help people make smarter and more disciplined decisions with their money. |

Founder @orcamgroup 💸 | Author @pragcap 📚|

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Cullen Roche @cullenroche · Jun 2, 2023
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All else equal, I think it’s marginally deflationary since it reduces pvt sector net income. But since it’s often done concurrent with changing rates or deficits people blame QE for things caused by rates and deficits. This paper is superb IMO.

Paper Jul, 2018
A SKEPTICAL VIEW OF THE IMPACT OF THE FED’S BALANCE SHEET
by James D. Hamilton and Kenneth D. West
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Cullen Roche @cullenroche · May 18, 2023
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Great thread. Thanks for posting.

Tweet May 18, 2023
The Conference Board released its LEI today. I won’t go into the deets, other than to say it’s not bueno and they are still calling for “a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid 2023”. You can view it h
by David Cervantes
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Cullen Roche @cullenroche · May 5, 2023
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Nice thread. Another way of thinking about this is that deposits are sticky in a 0% rate environment and become flighty in a 5% environment. Velocity of deposits surges in the chase for yield and weak banks will be caught in the crosshairs as their funding costs rise.

Tweet May 5, 2023
1/1 Bloomberg headline: *US BANK DEPOSITS FALL BY $12.5B IN WEEK ENDED APRIL 26 I think this is misleading as there is a lot of confusion on how to read the H8 deposit data. 🧵to explain. @BobEUnlimited
by Jim Bianco
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Cullen Roche @cullenroche · Apr 29, 2023
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Not sure if you read this, but this post by @david_seroy is very good and I agree with it. It clarifies some of the semantics we’ve been hung up about. I hope it helps clarify where we’re coming from on this.

Tweet Apr 28, 2023
Confessions of a Private Money Lender: Let me explain the financial incentives under-pinning full reserve lending and why this is a gaping hole with many #Bitcoin and fixed money thought leaders. 'Private investors are fully reserved' -- No, not qu
by David Seroy
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Cullen Roche @cullenroche · Apr 27, 2023
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No, credit markets exist to help investment CREATE savings. This paper is an excellent primer on many of these concepts. "Savings does not finance investment"

Paper Mar, 2013
Saving does not finance Investment
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Cullen Roche @cullenroche · Apr 4, 2023
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This is a good paper on the topic. Yes, good has and always will be an important reserve asset. And the USD still dwarfs total gold reserves.

Paper Jan 27, 2023
Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More?
by Barry Eichengreen
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Cullen Roche @cullenroche · Nov 4, 2022
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This is a great piece. Some advisors claim that having your own products creates a conflict, but if your new product reflects your existing methodology then all you do is reduce client fees & improve tax efficiency. It's not a conflict. It's a competitive advantage.

Article Nov 4, 2022
Why Advisors (and Family Offices) Should Consider Creating their Own ETFs
by Patrick Cleary
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Cullen Roche @cullenroche · Dec 30, 2021
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This is an excellent paper on understanding real world experiences with price controls to manage inflation. "The evidence presented in this paper supports the conclusion that capital controls cannot substitute for sound macroeconomic policies."

Article May 17, 2000
Capital Controls: Country Experiences with Their Use and Liberalization
by Akira Ariyoshi and 5 others
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